Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28091. (Read 26709845 times)

legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
Risto, Do you think we will visit the 430-450 area any?

The last reversal last summer there was a pullback from 100 to 78, same patterns and everything
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 100
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors

You need to have a standard how to measure the goodness of the prediction.

I said that the price would go to 450 when it was 850, and it did, 2 days after. Many thought that was impressive.

If I now say that price will go to 450, it is not very impressive.

In my thread there is a prediction contest, and the idea is that the average of other predictions become the standard that you have to beat, to get some glory and fame.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Shameless cross-post to advertise my recent findings:

I found some results from the correlation of (previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.

1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo.  Grin
y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661

2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.

3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!

4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.

5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).


2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%


Currently with prices floating around $500, BTC prices are about 55% down from the ATH of $1150-ish (over 4.5 months ago)... and about zero gain in the last month.  So your findings are telling us we will NOT go any lower than $250, but NO higher than $2500 within the next 30 days?   or do we measure from $340 to say we will go no higher than $1700  and no lower than $170. 

Something seems very incomplete with this supposed mathematical look at past performance to describe potential future performance.   - like it's missing something.

The important findings in my opinion were:

- If bitcoin has tanked heavily in the previous month (-22% or more), don't buy, it's a knife
- If it has gained 6%-255%, buy, because it has never been destroyed afterwards ("only" lost 32% max)

Now it is impossible to say what will happen, based on historical results, because the variance is too high.

There is a probability table prediction competition going on in the same thread.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Shameless cross-post to advertise my recent findings:

I found some results from the correlation of (previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.

1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo.  Grin
y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661

2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.

3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!

4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.

5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).


2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%


Currently with prices floating around $500, BTC prices are about 55% down from the ATH of $1150-ish (over 4.5 months ago)... and about zero gain in the last month.  So your findings are telling us we will NOT go any lower than $250, but NO higher than $2500 within the next 30 days?   or do we measure from $340 to say we will go no higher than $1700  and no lower than $170. 

Something seems very incomplete with this supposed mathematical look at past performance to describe potential future performance.   - like it's missing something.


legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
Can't help noting the price is hovering around the bullish high of Adam's poll...

EDIT: 20th April - in what time zone, Adam?

i'll go with the price of bitcoin on April 20th at 4:20PM UTC

At this time The price will be...


H I G H
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
full member
Activity: 175
Merit: 100

 I think we're gonna go up from here by sunday mid-evening GMT at the latest. I should close my shorts soon.

 But.. just can't bring myself to do it yet.. It's dangling over this small cliff.. to ~482, or even a stairway to ~466.. I whant it.. ahh =/
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Shameless cross-post to advertise my recent findings:

I found some results from the correlation of (previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.

1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo.  Grin
y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661

2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.

3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!

4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.

5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).


2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Well, I'm all in again. Just bought with the last of my disposable fiat into Bitcoin. I don't see it going any lower for a long time, maybe never.

Welcome back to the collective. As they say in Ireland:
May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind always be at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
and rains fall soft upon your fields.
And until we meet again,
May you hold Bitcoin in the palm of your hand.


Thanks and funny you should say that last part because I just printed my paper wallet. I'm holding all my coins in the palm of my hand. lol
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
Well, I'm all in again. Just bought with the last of my disposable fiat into Bitcoin. I don't see it going any lower for a long time, maybe never.

Welcome back to the collective. As they say in Ireland:
May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind always be at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
and rains fall soft upon your fields.
And until we meet again,
May you hold Bitcoin in the palm of your hand.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
Well, I'm all in again. Just bought with the last of my disposable fiat into Bitcoin. I don't see it going any lower for a long time, maybe never.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
...SOA= Straight Out of the Ass

LOL!
IMHO, IRL EMRTW and only NIFOC "1337" TA traders <3 SOA talk becuz "teh internetz is 420".
(sorry... i recently stumbled upon my teen's diary and now I speak in hieroglyphics)
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
I remember when JorgeStolfi pretended to be unbias towards Bitcoin, and actually enjoyed his rational counter-arguments against BTC.

Me too. But we need to be more understanding though. As human beings, we are all influenced by our emotions and biasness.
When started off, one may be rational. But when nasty comments from others come in, one tend to sway towards a particular view and fortify it. By that time, even when presented with concrete facts, one remains adamant on the view, refusing to admit the inital view was wrong.

You do realize that goes both ways, right?

Of course, though it takes lots of self-cultivation to achieve non-biasness.

Yip It does. Bitcoin was too good to be true. I was like Jorge but I owned Bitcoin before I siding with the cave bears. It was the loss of $100 of thousand that made me reconsider my position and find a logic structure to support it.

Knowing how absurd fiat is I can't but believe Crypto will succeed. In my view the earth isn't flat any more.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 4242
Merit: 5039
You're never too old to think young.
4:20PM UTC

LOL
 
4/20 4:20

Is 420 your favorite number? **cough cough**
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
Lots of people seem to be using no data to back their claims except SOA indicators.
Too much guessing.



SOA= Straight Out of the Ass

Works just as good as TA or throwing dice.
Or observing DB* Grin

*Double Bottoms
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Lots of people seem to be using no data to back their claims except SOA indicators.
Too much guessing.



SOA= Straight Out of the Ass

Works just as good as TA or throwing dice.
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