To Aminorex:
I'm supposed to have you on ignore, but you're posts are in the top 1%.
Question: Why do you hang out with the prols?
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28267. (Read 26656869 times)
April 11, 2014, 01:04:25 PM
April 11, 2014, 01:03:21 PM
I've been buying all along, and my latest buying point was around $390. I did NOT go all in at that point b/c I was anticipating that we would get another price drop on saturday or at least sometime between then and early sunday.. then, thereafter, the BTC prices would be heading upwards.
However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices. It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little. It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?
However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices. It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little. It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?
Its possible, its also possible it will take a decent amount of time to revisit it again, you never know.
Even if its a "bull trap", i dont think we've seen the top yet
April 11, 2014, 01:03:13 PM
Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.
April 11, 2014, 01:00:51 PM
I've been buying all along, and my latest buying point was around $390. I did NOT go all in at that point b/c I was anticipating that we would get another price drop on saturday or at least sometime between then and early sunday.. then, thereafter, the BTC prices would be heading upwards.
However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices. It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little. It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?
However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices. It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little. It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?
April 11, 2014, 01:00:25 PM
April 11, 2014, 12:57:55 PM
April 11, 2014, 12:52:31 PM
Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.
For company stocks in the U.S. in aggregate buy and hold is suicidal over the next 10 years while the demographic curve forces distribution.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.
Seems like the democrats are going to want to prop up the economic system, at least until after the November 2014 elections, no?
April 11, 2014, 12:51:18 PM
b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.
I bought my coins today, perhaps you should also..?
No thanks. I know that this bulltrap could go further and I could lose the opportunity to win some money, but this risk of loss just isn't worth of the possible gain here. I don't make my moves often, but when I do, then I won't leave it depending on blind luck. There is no way of knowing when this rise will start to fall and making blind bets isn't my thing. You go ahead and enjoy your coins.
April 11, 2014, 12:51:13 PM
Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.
care to point this somewhere so it can be addressed.. or you just want to throw your 2 cents in?
If I don't direct it at anybody, nobody feels required to respond or put on the defensive, which is good because that means I get significantly less whining from responses.
April 11, 2014, 12:49:06 PM
b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.
I bought my coins today, perhaps you should also..?
Nah, its much better to watch the price rise while being butthurt and mumble "stupid delusional people, buying in, even if it goes to 1000 they will still be stupid, dammit"
April 11, 2014, 12:45:42 PM
Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.
Observing a correlation between stock and flow requires no assumption. The coarse-grained observation that the rich tend to get richer and the poor tend to get poorer, ceteris paribus, is an informative prior. There is also the analogical observation that big fish eat little fish. In general the skill of gaining wealth correlates with both wealth and rate of gain. The domain is sufficiently complex that making a necessary argument is challenging, and statistical ones must serve.
April 11, 2014, 12:38:01 PM
Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.
care to point this somewhere so it can be addressed.. or you just want to throw your 2 cents in?
April 11, 2014, 12:37:37 PM
Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.
For company stocks in the U.S. in aggregate buy and hold is suicidal over the next 10 years while the demographic curve forces distribution.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.
April 11, 2014, 12:35:53 PM
Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.
April 11, 2014, 12:35:30 PM
b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.
I bought my coins today, perhaps you should also..?
April 11, 2014, 12:32:15 PM
I sense the bear fear of being left behind, if huobi gets to like 2730'ish i expect mass panic buybacks
I won't buy into this even if the price rises to 700. If I didn't see 500 as cheap when the price fell to this level from 600, then I certainly don't see it as cheap when it rose there from 340. I'm quite positive that this rise isn't sustainable because nothing has really changed to the better. "But everyone else are buying" isn't a strong enough reason for me.
Which is precisely why you will (as I predicted a few pages ago) continue whining all the way upwards during the next rally.*
For the record, there are people in here who I buy their % gains from (tera, even billy).
Yours, not one second.
* This is not an endorsement of the current upward swing. I think it's a bull trap.
Well, after all, you are a donkey..
With all jokes aside, I just want the market to be more efficient. For that to happen, people need to smarten up, so they could distinguish what is important and what is not. These "recoveries" that are fuelled by denial, desperation and foolish hopes, just make this long term downtrend longer, and making the market ugly longer then needed. This, in turn, will scare away experienced and educated people that in all probability would have the most funds to spend. So, because of these temporal dumb pumps, everyone involved will earn less money because the market isn't efficient and therefore isn't attractive for people who have a clue.
Clearly bull trap "recoveries" are fueled by the idea that the prior dip may have been THE bottom and by the historical observation that no matter how well you did selling BTC or shorting it, you are not going to do do better than buy and hold unless you also catch the bull market.
So its important to buy near the bottom. Personally, I have been thinking that that is now for the last few weeks
. What will indicate the turn for you?To me there has to be one of two reasons to believe in the trend reversal:
a) Major developments in the market system. Be it new markets with proper volume in new geographical locations like south- and central-America. Or be it ties to institutional funding.
b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.
April 11, 2014, 12:31:35 PM
If your main income is trading and you are making money - props to you...
Anything worth doing is worth doing well. Some things are not worth doing.
There are many kinds of trades. A free exchange based on mutual information is almost always pure win. The more of these that occur, the more efficient and productive the economy. Some trades are based on taking advantage of differential information, and are a positive boon systemically, although they are not win-win. They are win-lose. An evolutionary process weeds out the losers, but they are constantly churning, so this process will never completely end, and is unavoidable. It is bound up with the necessary process of price discovery. No problem there. Performing deceptive tortious or outright criminal acts to induce losers in order to gain thereby is just evil, seeking to harm others in order to benefit thereby. It is morally indiscernible from any other larceny or fraud, and harms the efficiency of the market, and harms the productivity of the economy. It is a defection and a despoilment of the commons. I would that some batman go from house to house giving neckties to sociopaths like these. Not my job, however, and thankfully. On this forum I rub shoulders with these parasites.
April 11, 2014, 12:29:55 PM
Quite a leap from "don't like" to forbidden. Same old technique. 
April 11, 2014, 12:29:10 PM
I dont like when people try to ridicule "buy and hold" approach, nothing wrong with buying btc as longterm investment.
Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy. But cutting losses and short-term trading are sensible choices too, in other conditions.
So why is it forbidden to express negative opinions that imply "don't buy" or "sell"? When "FUD" means "Facts and Unambiguous Data", any fear, uncertainty, and doubts that may result are good things.
C'mon Jorge FUD means fear, uncertainty and doubt. Where have you ever seen it refered to as such in a market situation...
April 11, 2014, 12:27:25 PM
I dont like when people try to ridicule "buy and hold" approach, nothing wrong with buying btc as longterm investment.
Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy. But cutting losses and short-term trading are sensible choices too, in other conditions.
So why is it forbidden to express negative opinions that imply "don't buy" or "sell"? When "FUD" means "Facts and Unambiguous Data", any fear, uncertainty, and doubts that may result are good things.
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