So does that make sense to you, or do you want to grill me some more to attempt to figure our whether I am pulling your leg.. or not following a sound practice or you want to criticize some thing that I am doing or to suggest that I am either lying to myself or incompetent or some negative motives or you want to try to suggest some other investment strategy or you are engaging in Monday morning quarter-backing?
In any event, hopefully, I have clarified sufficiently for you to understand my earlier statement(s).
By the way, What's your story? Do you have some personal investment details that you can share (sort of a quid pro quo)? Surely people have different investment approaches, depending upon when they got in, their risk profile, their other investments and maybe even depending on their reasons for getting in. Part of my original motivation remains my current motivation and that is to diversify or hedge my dollar investments. I feel that I have way too much of my total investments in the dollar.
I grilled you some, so I suppose I could give you a little back: I had a decent amount of bitcoin that I bought for an average of $5, held straight through the first bubble. I sold at $200 originally, then when I saw all the buying pressure at $266 bought back in, and started selling all the way up in small but increasing amounts once we hit about 400 (started too early, for sure). I sold everything leftover that I was willing to sell (which was still a good chunk of it) at a little over 1000 based on some sentiment indicators: my friend who never gave a shit about bitcoin suddenly asked if he should buy (I told him no, of course), I read a bitcoin market analyst who a lot of people listen to (you can see some of his analysis being regurgitated by people on this forum) call a 3300 top, and because I noticed that buying pressure subsided substantially after 1000. If you look back, I was dropping warning hints that maybe people shouldn't be so overzealous a little ways after we broke 1000. After the initial double top and drop, I was told I was just lucky, which, who knows? That could very well be the case.
Thanks for sharing some of your personal circumstances. Of course there is some luck, but also, there are a lot of advantages to being actively into something for a while in order to know whether to invest or not or how much to invest. If I had known you in November 2013, I may or may NOT have adjusted my strategy... Sometimes it does help to have consultation from someone who has some experience.
More or less, I had $30,000 to invest in November 2013, and I chose to begin investing with $1,500.. and to spread the remainder of the $30K over 6 months... that was my strategy based on what little I had studied into bitcoin for about 3 weeks before I started investing. There were some timing issues b/c if I had heard earlier or later, my strategy would have been adjusted somewhat. It's been an interesting ride for me, and surely it is NOT even close to being over.