Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28700.

Davyd05

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: chessnut on March 27, 2014, 08:07:44 PM

I guess that massive spike was a bunch of the lesser whales getting out of bed in China.

Since when did you have to be Chinese to trade in China or @Huobi...just as likely it was Rpiella and Tera lol

It's not like CaVirtEx is with CAD citizen only traders to the best of my knowledge.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Here's the logarithmic chart I keep posting these past months based on what we THINK are our logarithmic trendlines. They might not actually be the real trendlines and the slopes might actually be less, especially if this turns out to be a 2011-like supercycle. Regardless, there are going to be a lot of bulls and traders playing these trendlines. There are two very strong (one linear and one logarithmic) support levels below us. It is almost as if this crash was painted with a bullseye. So at the very least I expect a strong bounce from 400 or greater. Right now we're only at $480 and already there is a semidecent volume on Stamp building. See why I'm not shorting right now?

A rally from $420 to $550 is possible.

After this, a sustained recovery from here is the only chance left to resume the 9-month-per-rally trend before the 1W emas turns down and it turns into the 2 year cycle rather than a 9 month cycle and we see a very long crash/recovery period.

fonzie

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Moderator

How does this ban affect tradin in China. It looks like they panic sell, then everyone goes to sleep at the same time, get´s up and panic sells again.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

fib retrace of the china drop, first at 495, then at 514.

Davyd05

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: arepo on March 27, 2014, 07:57:23 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:50:05 PM

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time. Cheesy

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works Tongue

it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who leave room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? Cheesy

that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

Except for I entered a room.. and I am not leaving it Cheesy

derpinheimer

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:34:39 PM

Quote from: TeeBone on March 27, 2014, 07:31:36 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

Yeah. I dont see anything wrong with shorting if you think its going down, but shorting after/"during" the drop is just unnecessary risk.

adamstgBit

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1037

Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 08:03:57 PM

Quote from: Zule on March 27, 2014, 08:01:38 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:59:11 PM

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty. Tongue

1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

Back in aren't you?

Of course- Max leveraged long @ 472,5$

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

I guess that massive spike was a bunch of the lesser whales getting out of bed in China.

fonzie

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Moderator

Quote from: Zule on March 27, 2014, 08:01:38 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:59:11 PM

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty. Tongue

1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

Back in aren't you?

Of course- Max leveraged long @ 472,5$

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 08:00:56 PM

Quote from: arepo on March 27, 2014, 07:57:23 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:50:05 PM

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time. Cheesy

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works Tongue

it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who enter room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? Cheesy

that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

you´re right Wink

no not all trading, on the stock market out capital is used to generate dividends. all the people who buy such stock are net winners.

All the people who buy/sell bitcoin offer liquidity, boosting the value. again bitcoinsers will be net winners, no need to sell.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

the 23.6% retrace on huobi is at 3000 rmb

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: ?? on ??

What would be a good way to determine the number of market participants in bitcoin? Do the biggest exchanges for instance disclose the number of unique accounts?

Huobi's CEO said (a month ago?) that they had about 10,000 active clients. Not clear what "active" meant.

User @rpietila posted recently an analysis of MtGOX's database leak; IIRC, they had less than 70,000 clients with 0.001 BTC or more in their account.

Zule

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:59:11 PM

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty. Tongue

1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

Back in aren't you?

fonzie

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Moderator

Quote from: arepo on March 27, 2014, 07:57:23 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:50:05 PM

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time. Cheesy

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works Tongue

it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who enter room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? Cheesy

that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

you´re right Wink

But if the trend will not be reversed at any time in the future, there are some people left who will not only be not rewarded, but also lose money

MAbtc

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 508

Quote from: TeeBone on March 27, 2014, 07:53:51 PM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 27, 2014, 07:47:37 PM

Quote from: TeeBone on March 27, 2014, 07:35:56 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:34:39 PM

Quote from: TeeBone on March 27, 2014, 07:31:36 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I think that this is likely. But the point remains. One should be trying to short the reversal, not short into sustained selling. Same principle as "buy the crash, sell the rally."

Point taken, but if you expect a big drop at some point, missing out on small bounces isnt that big a deal. Most of my bids are in the 200's and 300's. Maybe his are too.

I don't know what size positions you play with. Mine are large enough that a $10 move is painful. A $50 move is damn near heart attack mode.

On a move from 535 > 466, shorting 470s is playing with fire. As long as you aren't one of these people that sells as soon as they are whipsawed, you're fine. But I know what it's like to sit on a short $5k in the red, anxiously waiting for it to play out, and it ain't pretty. I take lengths to avoid that sort of pain, and I'm willing to sacrifice some profit to do it.

fonzie

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Moderator

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty. Tongue

1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:50:05 PM

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time. Cheesy

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works Tongue

it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who leave room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? Cheesy

that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

TeeBone

sr. member

Activity: 502

Merit: 251

Quote from: MAbtc on March 27, 2014, 07:47:37 PM

Quote from: TeeBone on March 27, 2014, 07:35:56 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:34:39 PM

Quote from: TeeBone on March 27, 2014, 07:31:36 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I think that this is likely. But the point remains. One should be trying to short the reversal, not short into sustained selling. Same principle as "buy the crash, sell the rally."

Point taken, but if you expect a big drop at some point, missing out on small bounces isnt that big a deal. Most of my bids are in the 200's and 300's. Maybe his are too.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: boumalo on March 27, 2014, 07:04:43 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 06:51:41 PM

Quote from: roslinpl on March 27, 2014, 04:48:55 PM

My predictions from yesterday were kinda not good as I see... Tongue

Instead of go up, price went down ... ~35$ ...

And no money to buy cheap coins! Sad

such sad.

I am definitely running out of Fiat reserves, too.

UNEXPECTANTLY - In the past three weeks, I have been buying BTC since about $610, and i did NOT expect BTC prices to go lower than $610. I have continued to expect BTC prices to go up... but I have bought about 6 BTC between $486 and $610. If I had known (BIG IF), I would have saved my fiat and bought them all at $486... then I could have probably gotten 7 BTC for about the same price that I paid for the 6 BTC.

Maybe you can sell now and buy back when it's 50$ lower or you just patiently hold and wait like everyone else

I bet a lot of people are getting fiat to the exchanges to buy "cheap" coins..

I'm too afraid to sell any more than .2BTC at a time. Almost any time that I begin to attempt to profit from trading or to sell larger quantities of BTC expecting to trade and to profit from that, I get left in the dust.

Trading BTC does NOT seem to be my forte...

Unless there is some kind of extremely negative news, I have resolved NOT to sell any BTC until I am getting closer to being in the black. Currently my BTC buy-in price is about $670... so BTC has a way to go UP before I am back in the black.

boumalo

legendary

Activity: 1918

Merit: 1018

The price is going down, when it goes down like that and in a negative environnement you feel it can go down very low

It will probably rebounce aggressively soon, let's get some fiat to the exchanges Grin

We have a few technical levels that should resist, let's see

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28700. (Read 26709099 times)