Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion - page 28701. (Read 26709065 times)

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2014, 07:42:48 PM

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I think that this is likely. But the point remains. One should be trying to short the reversal, not short into sustained selling. Same principle as "buy the crash, sell the rally."

vleroybrown

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This is who we are.

When will a seriously innovative alt(s) completely decouple from this downward trend in btc pricing. I imagine the first one with the best chance of doing so is listed on the the major exchanges that offer central fiat to alts. Short list includes Ripple on Bitstamp & Kraken, Litecoin on Bitfinex & Kraken etc., some chance of the Vault of Satoshi and Kraken alt markets breaking out including Doge, which has done more trending uncoupled to Bitcoin than any other alt so far, is there anything else I'm missing with a offical collapse of the Chinese buying support? And how much chance do you give for this to happen at each price level lower for bitcoin 300s, 200s, 100s.. 2 digits?

seleme

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Duelbits.com

Quote from: Kramerc on March 27, 2014, 06:55:00 PM

Its 2 AM. I got my popcorn with me, but I must say, I am experiencing a certain level of fear.

Sadly, I can't buy moar, my fiat is running out.

Same here.... that's what I keep saying when guys say that they would buy a shitload of BTC if the price went to $100 per BTC... the problem is I would NOT have any money left by the time it got that low.

That's why it is good to day trade during downtrends. If you catch some bounces, you have similar amount of the money all the way down. I manage to do that so far since ATH and actually gained 300-400% but lot of that were some very profitable non btc vs usd trades though.

JorgeStolfi

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If you didn't like my bullish 70 USD prediction, here are two bearish ones:

These predictions assume that the ban will only undo the effect of the last rally of Mar/03 and get the price back to the previous trend that has held since Jan/19, apart from a detour in late january. A possible justification for that trend would be gradual cash-out and exit of traders from the market, due to losses or other reasons, not compensated by the recruitment of new investors.

The black lines assume that the trend is either linear (by now at 2350 CNY) or decaying exponential (2600 CNY).

Of course, in either case, if the trend persists Bitcoin will be dead before the end of the year. So you probably prefer the 70 USD prediction. Undecided

TERA

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Quote from: TeeBone on March 27, 2014, 07:35:56 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:34:39 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

Quote from: Kramerc on March 27, 2014, 06:55:00 PM

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I don't. In that case, I lose out on a good short. But it doesn't matter. You're discussing speculating on something that might happen and has a lot of risk. That's not the way I trade. I only trade when I have a good setup and I'm 80% sure that I'm going to win, and have a strategy to control risk. So I just ignore the trading opportunity and wait for another one. For example I'll at least wait for some kind of large spike (bulltrap) and then I'll short that. I'll then be prepared to cover this short very quickly if I feel that it is not a bulltrap but more of a longer-term recovery.

I guess you'e in a different situation though in which you're currently long. Maybe you're too heavily invested in btc now and you're forced to make a trade or else you feel like you are losing all of your capital. It sucks to be in that situation. One should not have been long like that to begin with every single MACD on every scale on bitcoinwisdom was down.

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Its 2 AM. I got my popcorn with me, but I must say, I am experiencing a certain level of fear.

Sadly, I can't buy moar, my fiat is running out.

Same here.... that's what I keep saying when guys say that they would buy a shitload of BTC if the price went to $100 per BTC... the problem is I would NOT have any money left by the time it got that low.

edwardspitz

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Panik, I have a plane to catch very soon

TeeBone

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Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:34:39 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

tarmi

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Quote from: MinermanNC on March 27, 2014, 06:44:33 PM

Could you all please provide an epic bulltrap to 520-550$?

Thanks

I dont think so. we already had 2~3 really epic bull traps.

many dollars burnt.

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: bassclef on March 27, 2014, 06:39:50 PM

Quote from: Dr. LY on March 27, 2014, 06:38:25 PM

It's that moment where you're terrified you're going to lose it all.

aka "The time to buy more"

This. Always this. Some people never learn.

No no no, its going to $10, the mighty prophets of the temple of economics have given us their word on this, $10 spring 2014.

What ever happened to 10k by spring lol

Maybe the 10K prediction will have to wait a little bit, until either Spring 2015 or Spring 2016 or possibly Spring 2017 or lastly, possibly some other convenient time that will work out a lil better. Spring 2014, is nearing its end point, so 10k does NOT seem likely in the next week or even the next month.

fonzie

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Quote from: MAbtc on March 27, 2014, 07:31:05 PM

Could you all please provide an epic bulltrap to 520-550$?

Thanks

Yeah pretty oversold and strong support in 465-480 zone. I'd be surprised if we don't see a test of 518 level. My channel top is at 570 -- don't see that happening.

I´m a bit scared if Huobi really should go into a Gox-like death spiral, that there will be only downs and no bounces and waves which make crash tradin real profitable.
Just like it looks on the Huobi 1h chart. Cry

TERA

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Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

fcmatt

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Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:25:03 PM

Could you all please provide an epic bulltrap to 520-550$?

Thanks

Wont happen until they get their next paycheck plus deposit time...
Or their parents give them their allowance.

Davyd05

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Quote from: aminorex on March 27, 2014, 07:22:45 PM

looks like the bottom is in at huobi

Wrong. Look at the volume. It has decreased significantly on this wave down from the last wave down. That is very bearish. It is no longer up to Huobi to find the bottom. It is up to Bitstamp. I predict that the final bottom will be on a day when Bitstamp has over 200,000BTC of volume.

so 137k took us to $380 .. and you think 200k is going to hit the market to help us hit a bottom. Despite almost all of the news being a bunch of shit and the fundamentals of bitcoin are moving forward and at new speeds... sometimes I wonder if you have a bi-polar bear bull disorder.

IMO you are under playing how skiddish the market has become after gox.. they wanted to believe it was all lies that the coins we're missing. Now no1 wants to hodl through China fud and we have big sheep sales.

They almost had a domestic bank run due to one or two people getting turned away from withdrawals of 10,000+ usd ( in yuan ), this is with out tweets.. just word of mouth IIRC.

edit: In conclusion.. low volume + china murmurs = a reason to sell just in case.. which in reality is the reason we see so many flash crashes.. people being greedy and selling to buy back in lower on the rebound.

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: aminorex on March 27, 2014, 07:27:59 PM

new exchange opening in vietnam

anyone want some vietnamese fiat?

Cheesy

fonzie

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Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:28:44 PM

Quote from: fonzie on March 27, 2014, 07:26:23 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 27, 2014, 07:25:03 PM

Quote from: aminorex on March 27, 2014, 07:22:45 PM

looks like the bottom is in at huobi

Wrong. Look at the volume. It has decreased significantly on this wave down from the last wave down. That is very bearish. It is no longer up to Huobi to find the bottom. It is up to Bitstamp. I predict that the final bottom will be on a day when Bitstamp has over 200,000BTC of volume.

TERA did you short this crash?

I am already sold from $630 still and never bought back. I thought about shorting, but didn't Sad

. I'm still 20% BTC and 80% fiat, which up until now has been my the max bearish position I would allow. Yesterday for the first time I considered actually going short so that I was -(20)% BTC but I pussied out and everything happened too fast with the news.

OK. Thanks, i´m always interested in other peoples trading behavior.

Where and when do you expect the bottom? Roughly

TeeBone

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Quote from: derpinheimer on March 27, 2014, 07:25:13 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 27, 2014, 06:51:36 PM

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

guys stop freaking china news is completely fake.

The poll is NOW outdated. I actually predicted that we would NOT get under $500 - except maybe a flash crash... and maybe this will NOT last for long - however, it seems that we have been trading below $500 for more than 1.5 hours... so must be official that the "yeses" won this particular poll.

MAbtc

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