Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 291. (Read 26497846 times)

that mad boi misses opportunity to buy when the corn was cheap now mad at all over bitcoin?

Is it also possible that the bitcoin somehow goes to zero someday? Like how it could even possible?

Explanation
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links to the source

this link does not show that

https://rsmus.com/insights/tax-alerts/2024/kamala-harris-economic-agenda-sheds-light-on-her-tax-policy-priorities.html


this link shows it but is pretty much bull shit link
https://x.com/FluentInFinance/status/1826006448561938700



here is a fact check  on Joe Biden

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-m-idUSKBN26Z2BE/


now this link below is a complaint about unrealized taxes

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/2768082/bidens-proposed-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-fundamentally-misunderstands-what-wealth-is/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Pmax_USA_Magazine_21-June-Intent-Audience-Signals&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAAD8dCuxHCvdempOCoBCZvOUNh0hXQ&gclid=CjwKCAjwoJa2BhBPEiwA0l0ImJSvjw-luoRcOJJBybiv8afEpBLqe5e7NgkrfluoCtmYTtRbwo1kVBoC64kQAvD_BwE


found this

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2024/04/30/americans-overwhelmingly-reject-bidens-plan-to-tax-unsold-assets/


if you have 100 million in assets he wants to tax you at 25%

that is even if you only are making 5 mill a year on 100 mill in wealth

while it sounds bad.

if you have 100 mill and make 5 mill you have 105 and after 25% tax you drop to about 77 mill and are no longer subject to the tax.

it would really hurt a person with good amounts say 2 billion in stocks the tax would drop you to 1.5 billion


I don't mind a one shot one year deal where the super rich of America get fucked hard.

If anyone understand the issues they would realize tax were very high for the rich up to 1960's .

So the rich did score for more than 60 years.

to take back a big piece in a year would be okay.  but we all know none of this is going to happen it is all talk

trump wants to give the same rich more tax breaks which is likely worse.

I would have no issue of taxing the shit out of every billionaire for a year or 2.

but not for a decade or 2

SO THE rich can be scared for a bit but the rich are slick and even if it is passed the $$ gained won't last as the government is on a 22 year streak of losing.

So bush lost every year but 2001 his first year.
Obama lost every year
Trump lost every year
Biden lost every year

who's next will run the deficit up all 4 years.

the idea is run it into the ground 0 for 22

Explanation
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God bless if she won’t be elected…. Then god bless the Americans even those who are still not willing to see…

How can you be taxed on anything that is not realized? Like, what if I lose the keys, or get robbed? Will I get to pay a tax on a property that I do not own?

Explanation
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Explanation
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I wonder how much this tax will impact a debt that increases by 1 trillion every 90 days. They need to pump the SPX to 50,000 to make a dent.
Once again, socialist nonsense.

Kamala Harris proposes ~45% long term capital gains tax and an additional 25% tax on unrealised capital gains for rich people.

God bless America.

I agree! Fingers crossed

Explanation
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Bitcoin is never completely boring, even when we are going through these various consolidation periods... so yeah, it is hard to be overly pessimistic, even though sometimes some tinges of the pessimism and wondering how long will it last could be going on... .. I mean, we get other members saying that they are bored, but then at the same time, there is a bit of what else is new?  this is what bitcoin does, and I doubt that any of us can deny that there is a battle going on underneath too, even during these consolidation periods.


For sure, there is no all or nothing relationship, yet bitcoin has built in incentives for the miners to stick around, so yeah, we could have 99% of them leave and bitcoin is still going to work since the difficulty adjustments will take place to the hashing power level of however many remaining miners exist, even if there might ONLY be 1 or 2 remaining.

So I am not sure about the point that you are making... bitcoin adjusts along the way..and yeah there could be attacks that relate to mining and hashrate so I am not even proclaiming the whole mining scene is without flaws and potential collusion, but they are still not leaders in regards to the price.. they respond to the price including their anticipations of future price, which they may or may not end up anticipating the future price or the difficulty or various other aspects of their business correctly... so you can go on believing whatever you like in your seeming to want to emphasize more power to the miners than they actually have.  They can choose whether or not to mine and they can attempt to play various other games, and I don't claim to know all of the details nor do I care to do any further research beyond what I get from time to time (potentially through osmosis) through my regular snooping of my nose into various bitcoin related matters and various aspects of mining continues to be subject matters of many bitcoin conversations regarding the status of pools and how templates are made and various matters related to revenue sharing and obscurities.

Regarding your gold comparison, bitcoin is around 1,000x more valuable than gold, but currently it is ONLY around 1/15th the price. .. so yeah it could take 50-200 years to work it all out.. perhaps? In the meantime, there are some comparisons to gold, but other comparisons not so much since bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch and going to likely continue to eat its lunch for quite some time to come, including potentially for the next 50-200 years or so... hard to attempt to predict beyond that... and probably I am going too far with whatever lame prediction I have just made.


Hopefully, you are not making your BTC investment ideas on such ideas, even though technically you are correct... and yeah, preparation for world-wide Armageddon or worse than world-wide Armageddon is not a non-zero situation, yet bitcoin is still around 1,000x better than gold... believe it or not..


Bitcoin is a unique asset, especially in regards to its non-physicality, but sure it does depend on electricity and communication abilities... so will give you that.. and so how big are the world electricity and communication channels going to be shut down and for how long... So my investment in bitcoin did not help me in that situation, but I am still able to just live to the extent that I have guns and bullets?  I am not very prepared for that, even though surely it is not a non-zero chance.


I doubt that all of the miners are going to voluntarily stop mining bitcoin, so there is likely going to be ways to continue to mine.. yet surely I don't know the details, yet there are nodes too that determine the network, and so yeah there could be a hard fork at some point within the Armageddon scenario or whatever other scenario you are anticipating to allow your little fantasy about hashrate supposedly controlling price or whatever point you are making about the powerful presence of miners in bitcoin to be relevant.


We all seem to realize this point, yet phillip seems to want to continue to proclaim some kind of a powerful omnipotence within the miners as an entity and as if they were some kind of a monolithic group.


It seems like similar things happened for me in regards to setting various goals and then reaching them earlier than expected, and surely some of the goals ended up changing along the way which was likely based on learning along the way.

It likely is not bad to get to a point of reaching your goal and then overaccumulating to some degree, especially since you had been spreading your BTC accumulation over a whole 4 year cycle..  .. yet there might be some tailoring that you might end up planning on doing, yet for sure we cannot really be sure what the BTC price is going to do for the remainder of this year or next year...even though we have some ideas, so I would imagine that you have already accounted for the theories regarding what might happen and then other aspects of what ends up happening to the extent that it might end up varying from expectations.

Even for me, I think that I had some dilemmas when I was enterring into a state in which I realized that I had enough BTC which was late 2014, yet I could not really resist continuing to buy more throughout 2015 and even into 2016.. but then I think that I kind of started to figure out ways to transition into a different kind of thinking by the time 2017 came.. so each person has their own little transitioning points...and maybe some personal tweaks that you might make to whatever you are doing in regards to accumulation/continuing to accumulate or perhaps getting into some kind of a maintenance stage - which can also vary for guys.


I am not sure where you are finding your 200-WMA, but all the places I see the 200-WMA, it is just above $38k, currently. 

https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Surely we should be able to have some reliance on the 200-WMA as a kind of bottom.. even though surely we know that it can be broken through from time to time, and we still have to witness more time with the BTC price staying close to it for longer periods of time in the future if the BTC price might start to go up slower or less fast (maybe bitcoin getting out of its earliest stages of adoption and the price slope becoming less steep with the passage of time), and through bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA has continued to go up and BTC's spot price has tended to mostly stay above it, even tending to be more than 50% above it as it is right now right in that price territory...


It seems that UP is the most likely direction, yet we still have to be financially and psychologically prepared for anything, even if we may have reasonable conclusions that UP remains the more likely direction.
 

Maybe a BTC hodler accumulator needs to be in bitcoin for close to 4 years forthe 200-WMA to start to make more sense on a more personal and experiential level? 

The oldest of the purchasers of BTC spot ETF shares have ONLY been in bitcoin for around 8 months, so there are a lot of newbies, even though I do anticipate that over the long run, the BTC spot ETF share purchasers are going to tend to be a wee bit more sticky, even though likely we can suspect that the earliest of BTC spot ETF purchasers were less typical and insiders trying to front run to some degree.


I can't speak for Loyce or his supposed model, but I doubt that I personally have much if any model beyond saying that the various pictures that you seem inclined to ongoingly paint in regards to the supposed power of miners in bitcoin seems contrary to facts and contrary to logic, but you can keep going on about it with whatever your new spin is also coming off as a bit esoteric and perhaps too much of an attempt at originality, which at best maybe we (royal perhaps?) might applaud you for creativity at best, and one of the specialities of trolls is to come up with lame ass specialized theories... professor Jorge Stolfi used to come up with all kinds of creative bullshit negging on bitcoin... just like you seem to do with your attempts to want to get miners to be bitcoin's supposed leaders.whether it is hashpower or whatever choice to mine (whether voluntary or by forces of nature) scenarios you are wanting to outline as being potentially relevant to how bitcoin works and supposedly gets its security, existence and price too..


I have tended to think of bitcoin's supply as both fixed and largely known.  Sure there are some aspects of it that are not known too, but not enough to really materially affect matters, since the more important data might be related to movement of coins and perhaps the extent to which fake coins might be in the mix.

I try to think about demand as a constant, but surely we have ongoing network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer) and some various measures in regards to how we might be able to make further and more detailed inferences about demand and how it might change through time.

Sure every 4 years we have a halvening of the issued supply but at the same time we have new supply and existing supply and inactive versus active bitcoin users and also various potential attempts at diluting the supply with fake coins (which mostly I am inferring to be part of the dynamics of bitcoin, yet potentially more dangerous to try to carry out fractional reserves and end up getting caught on the wrong side of such a play).


Good luck with your blanket presumption that BTC price would go down merely based on another 50% drop in BTC hashing power, if that were to occur in some kind of timeline similar to the 2021 drop.. and sure the hashrate could drop a lot more quickly too, and there could be scenarios in which the hashrate drop might be an attack, so the BTC price might end up dropping for reasons that are other than the mere fact that a hashrate drop had also taken place.  We would likely need to see the facts of such hypothetical first, before presuming doom and gloom.

I do know that some folks like to blame the 50% 2021 Chinese hashrate for the failure for bitcoin to have a blow off supra $100k top, and surely i am not too much of a fan for single cause explanations since there were plenty of other things going on in bitcoinlandia in 2021 and also in 2021 and also in 2020.. so there is a before and after context and I see no reason for me to try to debunk your version of events, you can believe whatever you like in regards to how much you believe that BTC's price is circumscribed by various aspects related to miners and/or hashrate.
 

sure a bart, but also largely noise.


That would have had been bettable if you had not put the question mark behind it.  Not that anyone in particular, not even referring to this here cat, should want to enter into any kind of bet with uie-pooie.


That sounds potentially bettable.

By the way largely consolidating at the top or even within 20% of the top would hardly even be considered a bear market as you seem to be suggesting that consolidating is a bear market, which truly you are all over the place with your definitions and still your downity is likely not even close to playing out in ways that you have been prognosticating, and perhaps that is why you keep continuing to amend whatever a "depressing bear market" means to you.


You, philip, really seem to get a hard-on for various legacy services, and sure I have no problem with an ongoing availability of those various options, and some of those various legacy options might becoming more competitive due to bitcoin (and perhaps even giving some credit to various shitcoins too), so even you should recognize that there is value to be able to transact (whether physically in person and/or sometimes at a distance) without any third parties in the middle... and yeah the space is ongoingly adapting and evolving, yet bitcoin has brought a quite a bit of ongoing empowerment to being able to transact directly in ways that we could not have had previously accomplished outside of physical cash.. which truly sometimes the two transacting parties are able to be physically together to carry out some kind of a transaction and sometimes not.


Oh gawd...    And, now you are actually pumping gold.

We can agree to disagree if you believe that bitcoin and gold are currently fairly priced in terms of bitcoin being 1/15th the price of gold.  You might consider bitcoin to be overvalued and/or gold to be undervalued by the current market.

Of course, many of us here appreciate that bitcoin is likely undervalued in the market as compared to gold, even though some might not agree with my tentative working thesis that bitcoin should be about 1,000x more valued than gold as reflected in the market price, so currently either gold has to come down and/or bitcoin has to go up, and surely I have already asserted that it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin and gold to find a more accurate pricing in the market, so in the mean time, under my working hypothesis bitcoin is going to continue to take value from gold, so you are spouting out a seemingly losing proposition if you are trying to suggest that bitcoin is not going to continue to be eating gold's lunch... and we don't even need to get into all the various ways that you supposedly are in wuv with gold.


Pretty extreme ideas to consider bitcoin mining participation to drop that far.. .You must be presuming some kind of potential Armageddon event.


Sure.. BTC price is going to drop under a lot of different catastrophe scenarios, yet the more realistic scenarios involve bitcoin continuing to go up in price and also continuing to eat gold's lunch... so it may well be better to be investing in terms of more realistic scenarios rather than going through various kinds of mental masterbation about mining..

We might have to start to refer to you as Professor Stolfi wannabe, soon.. I believe that in 2014, 2015 and maybe into 2016, Stolfi ws active in this thread and he had a lot of lame-ass fantasy-like theories about bitcoin that were not dumb but they were really out there in terms of their non-likelihood.


Nice theory in regards to correlation equaling causation...and even if true, did it last?


I am shaking in my boots to realize that you had been correct all of this time.  I am glad that we all know about this dynamic in bitcoin's price so that we can be better informed and prepared so that we don't overinvest into bitcoin..

@Greyhats: Immediately stop your BTC accumulations!!!!!, and don't go into an overaccumulation status.. it is not worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already have more BTC than him..., which should be the opposite. hahahahahahaha).


@Greyhats: Immediately start your gold accumulations!!!!!, and go into an overaccumulation status.. Gold is worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already don't have more gold than him...,  hahahahahahaha).

if gold mining stops due to all gold being to hard to find, then all the gold that exist becomes more valuble.

since there is no more gold to be had.


if mining is reduced 100% all the mined coins are stuck and basically have no protection against double or triple spends if two people start to mine.

reality is you want btc to stay with a high price you need lots of mining.

when hashrate dropped 50% in spring of 2021

price followed and dropped 50%.

if gold production drops like mad the previously mined gold is not affected negatively.

we can type all night but the fact is btc baseline price is protected by mining.

gold baseline price is not protected by mining in the same way.

Explanation
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But gold doesn't make itself easier to find if too few mine it. Bitcoin does.


The point is that the offer of new btc stays pretty stable as long as one miner keeps crunching numbers. In other words, with difficulty adjustment a single miner can keep ALL the mineable btc in existence. This isn't true for gold: it does continue to exist even if no one mines it, but has little financial or industrial use when it's buried deep down.

Explanation
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