Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29194. (Read 26732287 times)

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Mar/04

Since today (Mon Feb/03) was a False Slumber Point, to play by the rules I cannot use it for the preditction.  So I will use the same straight trend line used yesterday, determined by the last four True points (Feb/27--28, Mar/01--02), namely p(d) = 3521.20 - 30.30*(d - 27), where {d} is the day number since Feb/01 (which is 32 for Mar/04). Thus

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-04, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3370 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 551 USD.

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.


NOTE: Extrapolating this trend, I predict that on February 01, 2015 anyone found in possession of bitcoins will be fined at the rate of 1097 USD per BTC owned.

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/03

It seems that the Baron pulled too hard on his bootstraps today :

Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-03-03, 02:35 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-03-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3400 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3825 CNY
Error: 425 CNY (~69 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 556 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 671 USD
Error: 115 USD

It must be said however that the trade volume V_h in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59 UTC) was 12.6 kBTC, whereas the total volume V_d for the day is unlikely to exceed 400 kBTC. Therefore, the prediction is not supposed to apply anyway becuse this was a False Slumber Point.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).


The ratio of Huobi's price to Bitstamp's price was about 5.7, much lower than the usual R = 6.12.

What an incredible day!

Days between april $259 ATH  and $63  low before the next rise: 87
Days between dec $1169 ATH and $400 low before the next rise: 87

We will be hearing this for years and it can get hot, but no, there will be no successful slavecoin.

I've never quite understood this phrase. I assume you're not supposed to sell on good news or am I missing something?

Nice!

Hence tomorrow it's "sell the news" day?

Feels like it probably was.... problem is, insider trading with bitcoin is not illegal... :S

Also... btc-e and houbi moving up even without bitstamps consent?

I think every day is insider trading, but maybe today more than average.

soo.. was today an..
...insider trading?!    

Well, but cash isn't like bitcoin isn't it. Cash wasn't introduced with decreasing supply, where drug trade was the main market engine, while half of the coins came out in couple of years, with the rest coming in a period that is over hundred years
Bitcoin was designed mainly to reward early adopters and have a strong starting momentum by this. Most of the early adopters with bitcoin are in all probability different kinds of criminals. That is probably the reason why there are so few "whales" who like publicity.

Meh, it might be a little obscure but I'm tempted to go with Will Smith.

No idea. Perhaps someone out there does know something

 https://twitter.com/niccary/status/440598582551674880

Hadn't checked Coinbase in 18 hours... was pleasantly surprised just now.
So, what astounding news [besides Gox biting the big 1] have I missed?

http://news.sky.com/story/717485/almost-90-percent-of-dollars-have-cocaine-traces

guaranteed that 100% of all cash has been used in some sort of drug exchange at one point or another...

STOP pumping auroracoin man! it is so obvious! 

In the future, when people start to question who owns most of the existing bitcoins, then better hope that there is another popular coin out there so you don't have to just withdraw fiat and game over. When people start to look into the amount of drug trade that went on with bitcoin in the past, and the amount of coins that have been reported stolen, then they will realize an important question: How to know if the criminal world isn't owning most of the coins in existence? People will question if investing new money into bitcoin isn't just filling the pockets of criminals who sold drugs and stole from others in the past. And then there will be one answer, that it's safer to start all over on a new platform that is not that suitable to the criminal element.