Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29195.

donut

sr. member

Activity: 248

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Quote from: Davyd05 on February 26, 2014, 12:28:17 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 12:23:00 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2014, 12:11:09 PM

There seems to be a lot of psychological projection in your attribution of motives, Jorge. I'm sure there is in my case also, but it reveals something about you.

One reason to believe in the future of bitcoin is that their salesmen are very good at winning the hearts of potential customers and skeptics. Wink

If you think that only a sick mind could imagine such a scenario, read this, for example:

http://www.assetrecovery.org/kc/node/b7b13256-28f7-11de-900c-81c63910293a.0;jsessionid=9697605F2890DC6814DA990ADC28D28C

I won my last facebook naysayer discussion with these three

Not looking good in South America
http://online.wsj.com/.../SB10001424127887323951904578292...

or Iran
http://online.wsj.com/.../SB10000872396390444592404578029...

Or you could trust these guys http://www.forbes.com/.../a-ponzi-pandemic-500-ponzi.../

None of your links work

bronco

newbie

Activity: 57

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Quote from: Davyd05 on February 26, 2014, 12:30:20 PM

Quote from: bronco on February 26, 2014, 12:29:06 PM

Gox Gox
can somebody explain me why in hell so many ppl kept their coins there after march 2013? I dont know anything about manipulation but wasnt stupid enough to keep coins at gox after march 2013.

lazy, ignorant of warnings, wanted to trade whenever with no wait times.

after Gox i cant even keep USD at bitstamp, trust no one

Kerrai

newbie

Activity: 28

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 11:05:02 AM

Quote from: Kerrai on February 26, 2014, 10:38:53 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 10:36:47 AM

Thus, I would be very surprised if MtGOX gets rescued.

I wouldn't be. I made the argument here, although it's a simplistic one:

http://theblogchain.com/2014/02/26/mtgox-is-getting-rescued-by-other-bitcoin-businesses/

Thanks.

I have one nit about your document: you suggest that the company that would rescue MtGOX could buy coins from the other exchanges. But the coins in the exchanges' wallets do not belong to the exchanges, they belong to their clients.

In fact, my preferred explanation at the moment for how MtGOX "lost" all those coins is that they sold them off-market in order to play with the cash, confident that they coudl re-purchse them if and when needed; but then the BTC price jumped from 100$ to 800$ in november-december, and they could no longer do that.

So, I think that it would be too risky (if not criminal) for the exchanges to sell those coins to the Save-MtGOX company. Ditto for any bitcoin investment funds.

Does this make sense?

I think that's a possible explanation re: Gox.

As for acquiring from other exchanges, they take in both USD and BTC in fees. They all have enormous BTC stashes as a result.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: Davyd05 on February 26, 2014, 12:28:17 PM

I won my last facebook naysayer discussion with these three

The links were truncated in the cut-and-paste. (Is any of them about TelexFree?)

Miz4r

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Quote from: kkaspar on February 26, 2014, 11:53:42 AM

Quote from: Miz4r on February 26, 2014, 11:38:15 AM

User count is going to stabilize at some point, and will become lower than the actual BTC inflation rate. I see no reason why that wouldn't lead to price stability (not in USD terms perhaps but that's because USD is actually not stable at all).

It's hard to believe that the usercount will stop and stay stable. In my idea, it will more probably either increase or decrease.
But what remains the same is that the inflow of new coins will slow down and get more expensive.
All of it combined will keep bitcoin far away from stability.

Ofcourse the usercount is going to become more stable in future, at some point the market is going to become saturated and the amount of new users getting into bitcoin each day will start to decrease until we reach a stable base. The usercount can't increase linearly or exponentially forever, I'm sure you would have to agree with that as well. So the increase in usercount will slow down as well as the amount of new coins and thus we are going to reach a state of equilibrium eventually. It's just a matter of time.

Davyd05

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: bronco on February 26, 2014, 12:29:06 PM

Gox Gox
can somebody explain me why in hell so many ppl kept their coins there after march 2013? I dont know anything about manipulation but wasnt stupid enough to keep coins at gox after march 2013.

lazy, ignorant of warnings, wanted to trade whenever with no wait times.

bronco

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Gox Gox
can somebody explain me why in hell so many ppl kept their coins there after march 2013? I dont know anything about manipulation but wasnt stupid enough to keep coins at gox after march 2013.

Davyd05

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 12:23:00 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2014, 12:11:09 PM

There seems to be a lot of psychological projection in your attribution of motives, Jorge. I'm sure there is in my case also, but it reveals something about you.

One reason to believe in the future of bitcoin is that their salesmen are very good at winning the hearts of potential customers and skeptics. Wink

If you think that only a sick mind could imagine such a scenario, read this, for example:

http://www.assetrecovery.org/kc/node/b7b13256-28f7-11de-900c-81c63910293a.0;jsessionid=9697605F2890DC6814DA990ADC28D28C

I won my last facebook naysayer discussion with these three

Not looking good in South America
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323951904578292383059267360
or Iran
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10000872396390444592404578029810117268752

Or you could trust these guys http://www.forbes.com/sites/jordanmaglich/2014/02/12/a-ponzi-pandemic-500-ponzi-schemes-totaling-50-billion-in-madoff-era/

Davyd05

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: ag@th0s on February 26, 2014, 12:20:31 PM

Can anyone imagine a scenario in which Gox *could* be revived without it temporarily crashing the price? Assuming that the losses are not on the scale in the strategy document (big assumption, but I'm not convinced it's real) I can think of a few ways out, but most of them involve FIAT payouts. If the BTC at Gox were paid out at the closing price ($135) - I can see an incentive for someone to come to the rescue.

Alternatively is there some way that the existing Bitcoin economy could be used to stagger the re-entry of these coins (assuming they exist) back into the eco-system, so for example if Bitpay was involved in the buy out - could an agreement be reached that they would liquidate Goxbux on receipt of Real BTC - put the Real BTC in escrow and offer staggered release windows where Gox users are offered withdrawal opportunities at some kind of weighted price? Basically I can see the possiblity of a hookup between existing entities, which could provide benefits to their businesses even if Gox users weren't entirely happy about it. Can't help wondering what Coinlab's take on thing is - they sure ain't going to get $75 Million out of Gox any other way?

gox damage is done, they crashed the price in to the ground, then they got outted by what was claimed to be an internal doc (made by an external body) that Mark in a irc chat log with imgur cat proof claimed to be "more or less" accurate.

We've priced in their incompetence. Them being revived would only ease the pain of those locked out from their coins and fiat.

JorgeStolfi

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Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2014, 12:11:09 PM

There seems to be a lot of psychological projection in your attribution of motives, Jorge. I'm sure there is in my case also, but it reveals something about you.

One reason to believe in the future of bitcoin is that their salesmen are very good at winning the hearts of potential customers and skeptics. Wink

If you think that only a sick mind could imagine such a scenario, read this, for example:

http://www.assetrecovery.org/kc/node/b7b13256-28f7-11de-900c-81c63910293a.0;jsessionid=9697605F2890DC6814DA990ADC28D28C

ag@th0s

full member

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Can anyone imagine a scenario in which Gox *could* be revived without it temporarily crashing the price? Assuming that the losses are not on the scale in the strategy document (big assumption, but I'm not convinced it's real) I can think of a few ways out, but most of them involve FIAT payouts. If the BTC at Gox were paid out at the closing price ($135) - I can see an incentive for someone to come to the rescue.

Alternatively is there some way that the existing Bitcoin economy could be used to stagger the re-entry of these coins (assuming they exist) back into the eco-system, so for example if Bitpay was involved in the buy out - could an agreement be reached that they would liquidate Goxbux on receipt of Real BTC - put the Real BTC in escrow and offer staggered release windows where Gox users are offered withdrawal opportunities at some kind of weighted price? Basically I can see the possiblity of a hookup between existing entities, which could provide benefits to their businesses even if Gox users weren't entirely happy about it. Can't help wondering what Coinlab's take on thing is - they sure ain't going to get $75 Million out of Gox any other way?

Walsoraj

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Merit: 500

Ultranode

Let's not rule out the possibility that Mark is simply lying, again.

cbutters

sr. member

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Merit: 250

I still can't wrap my head around them not checking their BTC balance for 4 years.... I check mine daily even when I haven't moved any funds in/out. There has to be much more to this story. Or a really severe coding error that was telling them the BTC was there when it wasn't.

billyjoeallen

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Hide your women

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 11:51:06 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on February 26, 2014, 11:13:16 AM

I also don't buy the liquidated them to play with the cash story. No one who believes in bitcoin (which he clearly did / does) would do that, they all feel that the price is way under valued and its a life changing tech. Hence why he acquired so many coins and then wanted his own exchange. Why would he then bet against the price going up?

Also back at $100 there wasn't anywhere near the liquidity to sell all of those coins.

That is just a theory, of course (I still think that it is more likely than the stupid malleability hack. Both theories depend on sheer stupidity, but mine also has a greed motive. Wink

Frrom the charts, I see that there were long periods when the price was stable. Perhaps MtGOX expected the price to remain stable for another couple of months, or that it would rise slowly so that they would have time to reverse the deal.

In my theory, the sale would probably have happened off-market, in large lots. Suppose that a big investor contacted MtGOX and offered to buy 1,000,000 BTC from their cold storage at 15$ each, when the market price was 10$. Would they let that opportunity pass?

There seems to be a lot of psychological projection in your attribution of motives, Jorge. I'm sure there is in my case also, but it reveals something about you.

dreamspark

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 11:51:06 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on February 26, 2014, 11:13:16 AM

I also don't buy the liquidated them to play with the cash story. No one who believes in bitcoin (which he clearly did / does) would do that, they all feel that the price is way under valued and its a life changing tech. Hence why he acquired so many coins and then wanted his own exchange. Why would he then bet against the price going up?

Also back at $100 there wasn't anywhere near the liquidity to sell all of those coins.

That is just a theory, of course (I still think that it is more likely than the stupid malleability hack. Both theories depend on sheer stupidity, but mine also has a greed motive. Wink

Frrom the charts, I see that there were long periods when the price was stable. Perhaps MtGOX expected the price to remain stable for another couple of months, or that it would rise slowly so that they would have time to reverse the deal.

In my theory, the sale would probably have happened off-market, in large lots. Suppose that a big investor contacted MtGOX and offered to buy 1,000,000 BTC from their cold storage at 15$ each, when the market price was 10$. Would they let that opportunity pass?

Only time will tell, I too dont see how malleability could be blamed for completely drainage of cold storage. In fact by its very essence cold storage could not 'leak out' to the hot wallet. The only way this could happen is infact if they didnt have cold storage at all and it was kept in majoirty in a hot wallet. Having no coins in this other than the ones I bet on bitcoin builder I just cant wait to find out the truth.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: fluidjax on February 26, 2014, 11:31:06 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 26, 2014, 11:26:28 AM

Of course it is OK to buy coins on other exchanges from the exchange's customers and withdrawing them.

What is not OK is buying a big lump of those coins in private from the exchange without the clients' knowledge.

Is fractional reserve banking actually illegal, especially with Bitcoins?
Banks are quite happy to use it and screw us .

Technically that would not be fractional reserve banking, or even banking at all. While the price remained constant, the exchange would still have on its hands enough capital to honor all the clients' account balances -- except that it would temporarily be in the form of stocks or other investments, rather than bitcoins.

There is no law that requires an exchange to store clients' dollars as dollars and bitcoins as bitcoins, unless that is stated in the user agreement. Converting coins to dollars would have been a terrible risk, but they may have thought that it was OK.

kkaspar

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banned but not broken

Quote from: bassclef on February 26, 2014, 11:55:16 AM

Quote from: kkaspar on February 26, 2014, 11:53:42 AM

Quote from: Miz4r on February 26, 2014, 11:38:15 AM

User count is going to stabilize at some point, and will become lower than the actual BTC inflation rate. I see no reason why that wouldn't lead to price stability (not in USD terms perhaps but that's because USD is actually not stable at all).

It's hard to believe that the usercount will stop and stay stable. In my idea, it will more probably either increase or decrease.
But what remains the same is that the inflow of new coins will slow down and get more expensive.
All of it combined will keep bitcoin far away from stability.

Good news for day traders.

Yeah, exactly! Most of the people are here because they are interested in buying low and selling high, so they can make a easy buck. People aren't here because bitcoin is a practical currency for everyday use. It's all good fun, but bitcoin can't become a serious financial tool because of that.
But, I think that the idea of open sourced and transparent monetary system, that is supported by the internet, is very important and it is the future. Bitcoin is just financially too simplistic to do the job. Something more complex has to be made to create a practical currency, that follows the same open source rules of transparency.

KeyserSoze

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