Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29201. (Read 26608384 times)

[quote author=oda.krell link=topic=178336.msg5385505#msg5385505 date=1393424229
Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.
[/quote]

(1) ... end exposed a real risk to people investing real money: none of the exchanges provide any sort of real security. Investing is much more risky than in any other sort of typical investment.
(2) ... and the other half of the equation: money used to buy the mtgox coins is also unavailable.
(3) ... but given (2), not many investors are likely to be buying back to the same levels.

Until there's certainty around the mtgox situation (and not just the rampant speculation) it will be a drag on the markets.  

What gox problem? gox is perfectly fine as it is - the best it has been in years. Look how well prices are doing on bitstamp now.

Paul Buitink @paulbuitink · 1m

Additional info: the 3 companies bidding on Gox are well-known in the #bitcoin industry. Hope the community can solve the Gox problem asap.

No it isn't. Not even in that perspective, because the sums that are involved with gox are much bigger.
But the more important aspect is the confidence.
Bitcoin is no longer just play money that is run by drug dealers. Currently it is pushed by legal financing. If some drug market goes bust, then it means nothing in the legal field. Investors with legal interests are even happy to see that bitcoin is distancing itself from drug trade.

But when a big exchange goes bust, that is the intermediate link between BTC and $, then the entire system will be questioned. If gox can get away with "sorry, but the money seems to be gone", then people will question what stops the other exchanges from doing the same. After all, there are no repercussions.  
Not to mention that drug dealers/buyers won't be seen talking on TV, how they lost their drug money. But we will see fathers of 3, who will tell their stories, how bitcoin promised them riches, but instead wiped them dry.

I wasn't paying attention to bitcoin then, but I would think that the Silk Road closeure was good news because it allowed bitcoin to free itself from the image of "coin of criminals and drug addicts", and therefore became acceptable to the vast majority of people who would rather not get involved with those things.

But the messages of the MtGOX headlines are "thousands of investors have lost their savings by investing in bitcoin" and "even the largest and oldest exchange may close without warning and disappear with your coins and money".  How can anyone possibly consider that "good news for bitcoin"?


Perhaps the Silk Road closure helped, but that rally was obviously due to the opening of the huge Chinese market.  Increased demand, fixed supply = higher price, isn't that obvious?

So much so, that the price crashed when China put restrictions on bitcoin, and partially recovered when Huobi and OKCoin found a partial workaround that kept that market alive.

To me it is obvious that arbitrage from the main Chinese exchanges has had a strong (mostly, but not entirely, stabilizing) effect on the price in western exchanges, all the time.  For example, it was probably the main contributor to the fast recovery after the damage done by that 10 kBTC whale on Bitstamp.  Huobi and OKCoin are large reservoirs that can absorb or supply coins to the (much smaller) western exchanges without much effect on their own price.

(Why do bitcoiners keep saying that the Chinese exchanges are all fake and irrelevant?  It is like saying that Apple sales are fake and therefore the company is irrelevant to Silicon Valley...)

Drug misuse and their insider dealings are prosecuted... BTC exchange -owners and board member of bitcoinfoundation not.

So obvious whom you´d rather trust  

The 'silk road effect' has nothing to do with the stashes and I'm not sure if we even knew the size of the stash when it first happened. Here is the silk road effect:

1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.

  I know right. What a Dick head.

Thing is one or two of these people have has BTC in the past .... oh wait, I think I answered my own question.

I will refrain from pointing out that you only joined a few months after the SR crash, if you promise me to go back and read a thread or two back from those days:

At the time of the SR closure, the absolutely *dominant* sentiment among the pundits in here was that it will greatly depress price. Anyone who said differently was shouted down. Took a few days, and that sentiment very clearly changed.

So, to translate it to the current day situation: yes, I compare the two events in the sense that, at face value, you might naively say "oh, it's going to keep price down for months to come".

In reality, it will probably throw price down for some days, maybe weeks. And then, gradually, it'll be seen differently, as extremely good news.

Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.

Don't you guys at Centralbanks have anything to do? Or maybe you're just butthurt cause more and more people are turning the back on your cult. 

looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison

Everyone's trendline is different. Mine says $350.

$500 is not unreasonable - it would represent a 50% retracement for a move which has not retraced at all yet.

It's easy to go back and read the wall thread of back then. During the April bear market, that very argument was absolutely prevalent: "with such wild swings, investors will lose confidence". Didn't happen.

You're partially right about SR. In the SR aftermath, two arguments were made: (a) "the last real usage case of BTC jsut went down" (LOL, in retrospect), and (b) "investors will read about criminal activity and BTC, and will lose all confidence".

You can see how I see those arguments as pretty similar to what is being said now: it's always about "new investors losing confidence", and as a result, not joining the market.

What this arguments ignore is the fluctuation of the market sentiment before the news broke, and the price. By the time the news item hits the mainstream media, the following is true:

(1) price is well below the previous ATH

(2) the already involved investors had some time to "digest" the crash

Add to that the pure exposure value of BTC reporting, and you can see why, every damn time so far, the result of the news coverage wasn't a dragging bear market, but a (delayed by a few months perhaps) new rally period. Followed by an ATH. Followed by a crash. Ad nauseam.

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

Anyway, Where the fuck is the CEO of Bitcoin and why doesnt he save all of us? 

It's the steep deflationary nature of bitcoin that turns most people off. It does make bitcoin look like a pyramid scheme and the number of followers who are exhibiting cult behavior aren't exactly helping either.

Be happy. This means that most of the people, while having heard of Bitcoin by now, still know next to nothing about it. What does this tell you about its potential for growth? 

Explanation

LOL you ve just discovered the real world! Welcome!

Dunno about you guys but I am sick of having to defend bitcoin over the last couple of days against all the told-you-so mockers.

Its like everyones gone retarded and decides nows a good time bring up all the old fallable arguments against Bitcoin.
I even had the old " You can't pay yoru mortgage in BTC so its a speculative investment and thats it" to "I heard that the CEO of bitcoin took everyones money"

One co-worker couldn't understand when I said I'd rather hold a deflating asset than an inflating one that I meant in general and to convert btc to fiat if and when necerssary. To which he replied so you could live without cash now?!

 I mean WTF these are intelligent people.