Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29200. (Read 26608364 times)
February 26, 2014, 10:02:47 AM
February 26, 2014, 10:02:13 AM
The 'silk road effect' has nothing to do with the stashes and I'm not sure if we even knew the size of the stash when it first happened. Here is the silk road effect:
1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.
1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.
wow, this is a pretty good description of the process, hat tip to you, sir.
...meanwhile the price is stealthily making its retraction?
Also, the difference between now and silk road is we were just in a bear market in the middle of final capitulation, while silk road was during an uptrend. Prices attempted to rally here with a lot of force but were opposed by the large bear market counterforces that existed before the gox crash. This was a rather odd way to end a capitulation and there might be more work to do to buy out all the capitulation coins.
February 26, 2014, 10:02:09 AM
In speculation terms the more this goes on the more it seems to me that the governments are involved.
Thats why he can't /won't say anything and why the funds are temporarily unavailable.
I mean if you get a subpoena that prevents you from moving any customer funds and carrying out withdrawals and also says that you can't communicate the reason for the restrictions how else could you react?
Thats why he can't /won't say anything and why the funds are temporarily unavailable.
I mean if you get a subpoena that prevents you from moving any customer funds and carrying out withdrawals and also says that you can't communicate the reason for the restrictions how else could you react?
February 26, 2014, 10:01:43 AM
Hi im new here.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.
Get out when you can boy. Choo choo up up up 2 da moon and beyond is coming soonish.
February 26, 2014, 10:01:32 AM
In any case - if Gox is bought by someone else and customer withdrawals are enabled then it will likely crash the Bitstamp market with all of the cheap btc coming out of Gox..
February 26, 2014, 10:00:34 AM
Hi im new here.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.
February 26, 2014, 09:59:46 AM
Serious question: Would anyone use "GOX" if it was bought by a reputable company and re branded allowing limited customer withdrawals but with a guarantee that finds are safe. Then if they implemented full transparancy of user funds??
I absolutely would not, and I will make sure anyone I know does not either. 
February 26, 2014, 09:59:16 AM
According to the Wall Street Journal, Mt. Gox has been subpoenaed by the US Attorney’s office in New York. Additionally, a few thousand miles west, Japanese officials have confirmed that local authorities are looking into the matter, too.
If true, it'll be be interesting to see which came first: the shutdown or the subpoena?
Or both at the same time...
February 26, 2014, 09:57:51 AM
According to the Wall Street Journal, Mt. Gox has been subpoenaed by the US Attorney’s office in New York. Additionally, a few thousand miles west, Japanese officials have confirmed that local authorities are looking into the matter, too.
If true, it'll be be interesting to see which came first: the shutdown or the subpoena?
February 26, 2014, 09:57:15 AM
Serious question: Would anyone use "GOX" if it was bought by a reputable company and re branded allowing limited customer withdrawals but with a guarantee that finds are safe. Then if they implemented full transparancy of user funds??
February 26, 2014, 09:53:25 AM
The 'silk road effect' has nothing to do with the stashes and I'm not sure if we even knew the size of the stash when it first happened. Here is the silk road effect:
1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.
1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.
wow, this is a pretty good description of the process, hat tip to you, sir.
...meanwhile the price is stealthily making its retraction?
February 26, 2014, 09:51:57 AM
http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-subpoena-japan-us/
The Mt. Gox maelstrom is starting to attract attention from law enforcement in Japan and the US.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Mt. Gox has been subpoenaed by the US Attorney’s office in New York. Additionally, a few thousand miles west, Japanese officials have confirmed that local authorities are looking into the matter, too.
The Wall Street Journal cites an unnamed source, which revealed the federal subpoena was sent this month. Details are rather thin on the ground and at this point in time it remains unclear when the subpoena was sent, or what it is all about.
In any case, federal prosecutors don’t tend to waste their time in vain and the fact that the attorney’s office is declining to comment the matter is consistent with an ongoing investigation.
The Mt. Gox maelstrom is starting to attract attention from law enforcement in Japan and the US.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Mt. Gox has been subpoenaed by the US Attorney’s office in New York. Additionally, a few thousand miles west, Japanese officials have confirmed that local authorities are looking into the matter, too.
The Wall Street Journal cites an unnamed source, which revealed the federal subpoena was sent this month. Details are rather thin on the ground and at this point in time it remains unclear when the subpoena was sent, or what it is all about.
In any case, federal prosecutors don’t tend to waste their time in vain and the fact that the attorney’s office is declining to comment the matter is consistent with an ongoing investigation.
February 26, 2014, 09:47:00 AM
Paul Buitink @paulbuitink · 1m
Additional info: the 3 companies bidding on Gox are well-known in the #bitcoin industry. Hope the community can solve the Gox problem asap.
What gox problem? gox is perfectly fine as it is - the best it has been in years. Look how well prices are doing on bitstamp now.Additional info: the 3 companies bidding on Gox are well-known in the #bitcoin industry. Hope the community can solve the Gox problem asap.
February 26, 2014, 09:45:47 AM
People seem to be making unjustified assumptions about these 740k 'missing' bitcoins.
The total number of bitcoins is always a known figure. The unknown is how many of these are in cold storage , and even that can be estimated to some extent from the blockchain.
One possibility is that the key(s) to the 740k have been lost forever.
Another possibility is that MtGox somehow sent 'replacement' Bitcoins to customers who falsely/fraudulently claimed that bitcoin transactions had failed, over a long period - meaning that these coins have long been in circulation already.
A third possibilty is that the 740k has all been stolen in one go.
A fourth possibility is that the figure of 740k is an unfounded exaggeration.
A fifth possibilty is that the theft/loss is bullshit, and the coins are there in MtGox.
A sixth possibility is that this supposed pool of 740k coins at MtGox never existed in the first place.
One thing I am sure of now - I wish MtGox would just wither and die for good. It is poison to the Bitcoin 'project'. Though I sympathise with all who may have lost assets as a result.
The total number of bitcoins is always a known figure. The unknown is how many of these are in cold storage , and even that can be estimated to some extent from the blockchain.
One possibility is that the key(s) to the 740k have been lost forever.
Another possibility is that MtGox somehow sent 'replacement' Bitcoins to customers who falsely/fraudulently claimed that bitcoin transactions had failed, over a long period - meaning that these coins have long been in circulation already.
A third possibilty is that the 740k has all been stolen in one go.
A fourth possibility is that the figure of 740k is an unfounded exaggeration.
A fifth possibilty is that the theft/loss is bullshit, and the coins are there in MtGox.
A sixth possibility is that this supposed pool of 740k coins at MtGox never existed in the first place.
One thing I am sure of now - I wish MtGox would just wither and die for good. It is poison to the Bitcoin 'project'. Though I sympathise with all who may have lost assets as a result.
I don't see that many possibilities
.And secondary , don't forget that it was this "poison" that helped bitcoin grow for years. If bitcoin was feeding on poison , then....
February 26, 2014, 09:45:24 AM
At the time of the SR closure, the absolutely *dominant* sentiment among the pundits in here was that it will greatly depress price. Anyone who said differently was shouted down. Took a few days, and that sentiment very clearly changed.
I think "the pundits here" mostly have no clue what they are talking about or they are just plain out lying. Most of the things I say here get shouted down. For instance, if you currently say that MtGox demise is important, then you will probably get shouted down by the majority
So, to translate it to the current day situation: yes, I compare the two events in the sense that, at face value, you might naively say "oh, it's going to keep price down for months to come".
In reality, it will probably throw price down for some days, maybe weeks. And then, gradually, it'll be seen differently, as extremely good news.
In reality, it will probably throw price down for some days, maybe weeks. And then, gradually, it'll be seen differently, as extremely good news.
It's really hard to understand your point. You are telling me, that because of the people here didn't see the SR demise as unimportant, then MtGox demise is also unimportant? Well, I just don't see the logic in that.
Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.
Questions that pop into my head: (1) Are the other exchanges honest or will they repeat the history of gox? (2) How can I know which exchange is honest and which is just building confidence for final strike (3) Could bitcoin be just a tool for those exchange owners to scam the general public?
These are serios questions that will be left unanswered and therefor will create distrust and uncertainty. For instance, I myself, am not as comfortable holding fiat in stamp as I was couple of months ago.
The demise of SR only hurt the BTC drug market, while the demise of MtGox will hurt the integrity of the entire bitcoin market system.
February 26, 2014, 09:44:22 AM
February 26, 2014, 09:43:47 AM
You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?
looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison
Compare the busting of a drug cartel with the bankruptcy of a huge bank , and think about how it will affect normal people lives , it's the same here.
Plus , does anyone have a clue , backed by documents how much such wow money are lost (not seized) because of mtgox?
February 26, 2014, 09:41:45 AM
People seem to be making unjustified assumptions about these 740k 'missing' bitcoins.
The total number of bitcoins is always a known figure. The unknown is how many of these are in cold storage , and even that can be estimated to some extent from the blockchain.
One possibility is that the key(s) to the 740k have been lost forever.
Another possibility is that MtGox somehow sent 'replacement' Bitcoins to customers who falsely/fraudulently claimed that bitcoin transactions had failed, over a long period - meaning that these coins have long been in circulation already.
A third possibilty is that the 740k has all been stolen in one go.
A fourth possibility is that the figure of 740k is an unfounded exaggeration.
A fifth possibilty is that the theft/loss is bullshit, and the coins are there in MtGox.
A sixth possibility is that this supposed pool of 740k coins at MtGox never existed in the first place.
One thing I am sure of now - I wish MtGox would just wither and die for good. It is poison to the Bitcoin 'project'. Though I sympathise with all who may have lost assets as a result.
The total number of bitcoins is always a known figure. The unknown is how many of these are in cold storage , and even that can be estimated to some extent from the blockchain.
One possibility is that the key(s) to the 740k have been lost forever.
Another possibility is that MtGox somehow sent 'replacement' Bitcoins to customers who falsely/fraudulently claimed that bitcoin transactions had failed, over a long period - meaning that these coins have long been in circulation already.
A third possibilty is that the 740k has all been stolen in one go.
A fourth possibility is that the figure of 740k is an unfounded exaggeration.
A fifth possibilty is that the theft/loss is bullshit, and the coins are there in MtGox.
A sixth possibility is that this supposed pool of 740k coins at MtGox never existed in the first place.
One thing I am sure of now - I wish MtGox would just wither and die for good. It is poison to the Bitcoin 'project'. Though I sympathise with all who may have lost assets as a result.
February 26, 2014, 09:40:32 AM
You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?
looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison
No it isn't. Not even in that perspective, because the sums that are involved with gox are much bigger.
But the more important aspect is the confidence.
Bitcoin is no longer just play money that is run by drug dealers. Currently it is pushed by legal financing. If some drug market goes bust, then it means nothing in the legal field. Investors with legal interests are even happy to see that bitcoin is distancing itself from drug trade.
But when a big exchange goes bust, that is the intermediate link between BTC and $, then the entire system will be questioned. If gox can get away with "sorry, but the money seems to be gone", then people will question what stops the other exchanges from doing the same. After all, there are no repercussions.
Not to mention that drug dealers/buyers won't be seen talking on TV, how they lost their drug money. But we will see fathers of 3, who will tell their stories, how bitcoin promised them riches, but instead wiped them dry.
Thats correct ----SR made clear that BTC works as criminals get prosecuted...MT.Gox is doing the opposite !!
BTC is fucked if theft thereof doesn´t mean jail time for everybody involved ( Ponzi-passthrough operators) rather than a lifetime
seat at the "foundation"
bought at bitcoi
February 26, 2014, 09:30:55 AM
[quote author=oda.krell link=topic=178336.msg5385505#msg5385505 date=1393424229
Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.
[/quote]
(1) ... end exposed a real risk to people investing real money: none of the exchanges provide any sort of real security. Investing is much more risky than in any other sort of typical investment.
(2) ... and the other half of the equation: money used to buy the mtgox coins is also unavailable.
(3) ... but given (2), not many investors are likely to be buying back to the same levels.
Until there's certainty around the mtgox situation (and not just the rampant speculation) it will be a drag on the markets.
Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.
[/quote]
(1) ... end exposed a real risk to people investing real money: none of the exchanges provide any sort of real security. Investing is much more risky than in any other sort of typical investment.
(2) ... and the other half of the equation: money used to buy the mtgox coins is also unavailable.
(3) ... but given (2), not many investors are likely to be buying back to the same levels.
Until there's certainty around the mtgox situation (and not just the rampant speculation) it will be a drag on the markets.
Jump to: