Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29234. (Read 26609609 times)

I wonder if all Gox emails, support tickets, PR statements and other communications will be added to the Karpeles Manuscript Library?
http://www.rain.org/~karpeles/

Rudrigo, you misunderstood me. I will give you the context. Stolfi made a post saying the following:

a) Bitcoinrain owner is a known thief, who apart from running a ponzi claimed to have 10k btc stolen which he just stole himself
b) Bitcoinrain owner runs Mercado Bitcoin, and people is still using Mercado Bitcoin despite of it being owned by a known thief
c) From a) and b) he implied that people into bitcoin is especially stupid/greedy

What I pointed out is that:

1) Mercado Bitcoin is currently owned by a different person
2) We do not know for sure if the 10k BTC theft was an "inside job" or an "outside job", so making that kind of bold assumptions and presenting them as facts is kinda pointless. I added that AFAIK the 10k theft happened indeed, meaning that it was mostly fueled by incompetence and not by insider collusion. Note that I used "AFAIK" every time i wrote about this matter and I never implied certainty.

Summing up:, I just wanted to highlight how Mr.Stolfi here is making wild assumptions (a), mixing them with a lack of knowledge of the facts (b), and using those to push a trolling/fud-spreading agenda.

Thank you for this summary. There is a mess of information and rumors going around so this helped a lot.

The way I'm leaning now is that the 750,000 BTC loss is pure FUD, leaked so that Gox depositors are more likely to settle for less than the par value of the Gox IOUs.

I think that Gox has lost customer funds and Gox is insolvent, but not nearly to the degree that a 750,000 BTC loss would imply.  GoxBTC's sold as low as 0.07 BTC = 1 GoxBTC on BitcoinBuilder, and right now the price is 0.14.  If a company looking to takeover Gox knows that the solvency situation is not that bad, they could buy up a great deal of GoxBTCs at less than 20% of face value.  In fact, maybe that is what is happening now.  Perhaps this is all it takes to regain solvency, or perhaps they cut a deal with remaining depositors for 500 mBTC on the coin.  With the current FUD in the air, I bet a lot of depositors would jump at a chance to get 50% of their funds back.  

My sentiment is exactly this.... too many things are identical to the last "growth phase" to ignore.

If gox will be taken over by a team of people who have proper financial backing and experience, then I'll probably go bullish for the coming period, until the volumes hold up. If an exchange is run by people capable enough, then it's probable that bitcoin will me marketed in new ways and in new places. But that is a if. I am very skeptical on any information involving gox, because to me it seems more likely that Mark Karpeles isn't this innocent fool that just tends to screw up, but he is actually a rather obnoxious confidence man.
I agree that there is always some gambling with the crypto market. For instance, I am gambling with the fiat that I'm holding in Bitstamp, because there is no guarantee that I can trust them. Only thing I can do is to cut down the gambling part as much as I can.
If the bitcoin market system will get it's sh*t together, then I think that the hype can live around 1-2 years and there can be around 1-2 more bubbles/crashes. I see that bitcoin won't have a very long lifespan, because it's simplistic financial properties will stop it's development at around 100b$+ market cap. It my vision, bitcoin won't ever be a serious financial tool, but it can be a large gambling platform.

yes Jorge now.

Sounds like we have very different trading/investing strategies. I'm definitely a mid/short term trader so charts are a must for me.

I think there have been huuugely positive signs coming out all through this bear market that have been overshadowed by negative press. So much investment in bitcoin based businesses, apps, big companies accepting bitcoin as payment, atms, general public consciousness of bitcoin, etc, etc. As a long term bull, I think this is the best time one could possibly buy. The price is only currently low because people are freaking out about Gox which has nothing to do with all the positives mentioned above.

Here's what I'm talking about... I mistyped before, this is the 52 week EMA which is exactly the line that the last crash rode up and off its final bottom. Also note that the low of that crash was not near the high of the previous bubble.

Unfortunately you missed the recent low of @95 on Gox. That was the time to buy. Now you'll have to wait until price goes astronomically high, then for Coinbase to go insolvent. Then it should plummet back down below $100 again for you to jump on board. Keep your fiat handy!

We are pretty much at those levels percentage wise... I'm going to hope that we've bottomed out similar to july 5, 2013

2012-08-16 Peak at 16.41
2012-10-26 Low before next runup at 9.50
71 Day Difference, 42% drop


2013-04-09 Peak at 259.34
2013-07-05 Low before next runup at 63.08
87 Days 75% Drop


2013-11-29 Peak at 1163
2013-02-24 Low before next runup at 400?
87 Days 65% drop

From Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yvdcd/heres_a_summary_of_what_has_happened_over_the/


Then:

MtGox web page goes blank, with hidden hint MtGox may be being acquired. - source - comment in HTML of MtGox home page (a placeholder for an announcement about 'acq'). (This web page has since been superceded)

Hours later, MtGox web page carries a statement that "a decision was taken to close all transactions for the time being in order to protect the site and our users"

Karpeles tells Reuters ""We should have an official announcement ready soon-ish. We are currently at a turning point for the business. I can't tell much more for now as this also involves other parties."

Domain name Gox.com now registered to Karpeles/MtGox. http://www.whois.com/whois/gox.com gox.com redirects to mtgox.com. (A third party could have registered this and set it up as a hoax but that seems vanishingly unlikely.)

The "Crisis Strategy Draft" report seems to be the sole source of rumours that 750k bitcoins are missing from MtGox. Also seems to be the source of a new supposed 'Gox' trademark. Rumours about ~750K bitcoins 'missing' from a MtGox cold wallet are confused, with some people assuming that 750K have gone in one go, others assuming that they have leaked away in small amounts over years, and others speculating that they have been destroyed/keys lost. If coins are 'missing', the figure might not be as high as 750k

Facebook page 'gox.com' launched, seems to be fake/troll with increasingly absurd comments about Dogecoin, etc. If the content were genuine, it would surely be on the mtgox.com and/or gox.com websites, not facebook.

IRC seems to carry comments from known(?) MtGox developers about losing their jobs.

MtGox still conspicuously fails to prove that it has Bitcoin assets by signing any in the blockchain, though this may be for commercial/securty reasons.

The fact remains if that amount of coins wasn't stolen, which seems more likely, then gox can probably re pay the majority of its debts. I mean everyone keep saying insolvency and it sounds like that but until someone shows proof that they owe X,Y and Z then complete loss of funds isn't likely.

I feel its more likely that they owe a certain amount and whoever is buying them out has enough to cover the difference

Gox has lost credibility. Lost coins and money are one thing. Lost credibility can only be restored by credible management. No bank will work with them otherwise. You can't just throw money at this problem. Gox had money. They lost it. It's unlikely but possible a new CEO could turn the company around with massive transparency, but who wants to operate like that? Who does operate like that?

I do like to know, what this is based on? Thin air?

Like, ofcourse... as much I'd really like to see BTC hit that amazing price, is it even possible?!!!

As I see it, going to 200-300$ is the continuation of the long term trend. Every bubble has dropped to the level around the peak of the previous bubble.
I actually don't use the charts much with cryptos to make decisions in trading. This market is unregulated and the wealth highly concentrated, so the price doesn't move in a way that would make sense in regular commodity markets. What interests me the most are the proper reasons that give potential to the rise of demand. If there are new reasons for people to buy and hold, then I'm back being bullish. During the past months there have been only reasons why people should drop bitcoin. I see that only hype and stupidity has postponed this drop.
To me "look! everyone seems to be buying!" is no reason to buy. I need better reasons about the success of the commodity itself, not just another wave of hype.

Explanation

Thanks for the honest reply, kkaspar.  It is difficult to buy at the "bottoms" because the feel in the air is always so negative [although I'm not saying that yesterday was necessarily the bottom].  The recent Gox news has shaken some people's beliefs in bitcoin, and the price is lower to reflect that. 

But imagine the feel in the air if Gox returns a fair % of customer deposits, well-funded and professionally-audited exchanges open up in NY and London, and the price starts to rise.  Eventually we would look back to the days of getting Goxxed with whimsy--a bump along an enchanted road to great things. 

That being said, if you believe that bitcoin only has 1-2 years left, then I think you are gambling no matter what you do. 

wow, still discussing about failgox?



I guess we will go sideways now with little or no volume, but I am afraid that we will retest the lows in the following days.

Max Keiser has as much market prediction capabilities as my grandmother.
Yet, I think we might see 5000$ this year during the next major rally (with a bit of luck).

Would you mind telling us how you know that?


? Where did you get that?

I know the basics of modern cryptography, like any computer scientist should, but would not call that "background".


Er, are you advising me to invest in bitcoin now? 

Where do you think that train is going to? What do you expect the price to be 3 years from now?