Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29238. (Read 26732207 times)

Jorgie don`t leave us.

If you guys don't stop picking on my person, I will have to take an extremely harsh punitive measure that you will not ever forget.  You have been warned.

That's why  I enjoy reading his postS. If he isn't able to find flaws ( thinking and acting rationally , unlike fonzie and mah) in the system , the system is one step close to being a success.

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday Mar/03

Trade volume V_d for today Mar/02 was ~41 kBTC, and volume V_h in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 52 BTC; so, by the new rule V_h/V_d < 0.005, it is definitely a True Slumber Point.

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Mar/02 19:00--19:59) was 3427 CNY.  There is now a clear decreasing trend among the last four True points (Feb/27--28, Mar/01--02).  Therefore, it seems better to abandon the constant trend that I had been assuming for the last segment, starting Feb/20, and assume a new linear trend starting at Feb/27.  The least-squares line of those four points is p(d) = 3521.20 - 30.30*(d - 27), where {d} is the day number since Feb/01. (This line also happens to fit the Feb/26 point, even though it is nominally a False one). Thus

Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-03-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3400 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 556 USD.

In retrospect, is not worth fitting any trend to the entire Empty Gox Chaos period that followed the Second Karpeles Catastrophe (namely, the six days Feb/20--25).

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.


The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp was 6.11. That is so close to the factor R = 6.12 that I have been using, that I prefer to stick to the latter.  Thus, the prediction for Bitstamp is simply that for Huobi, divided by R = 6.12.

NOTE: I stand by my predictions, but I am not responsible for any errors that the market may make.

I'm afraid I rather agree

I like how the second one was started by a new user named goxxie
Reddit is a credible source of information like the price on gox was relevant.

Worst. Pyramid. Category. Ever.

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/02

(It is called Chinese Slumber Method because it can put half of China's propulation to sleep.)

The last prediction was not bad but a bit too bullish, again.

Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-03-01, 23:37 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-03-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3515 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3427 CNY
Error: 88 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 572 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 561 USD
Error: 11 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

yeah lol, i don't really know what people were expecting/hoping for. the operators are probably paid a minimal wage and were just hired recently and given basic training (i.e. told to refer people to the website etc), i doubt they even really know what's going on.

Reddit post claiming that an operator said that an update will be posted within 6 hours:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zea3x/rough_transcript_of_my_call_with_gox/

And another claiming that an operator said that "there is no money back but to be patient, because there are good news coming on the web"
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ze9e9/goxxed_over_the_phone_mtgox_has_no_money_at_all/

edit:
This post claims that an operator says that there will be an update within 2-3 hours:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ze6a7/on_hold_with_mtgox_bankruptcy_info_line/

So, in this case.. they list a number to call on their website, just to tell you to check the website for details? LOL wut.

yes, it is

Maybe setting up a callcenter is a legal obligation in the case of insolvency.

Confirmed by multiple people that the support line is pretty much only up to tell people to check their website later for further information. Bizarre.

Is there just some general ignorance as to what "anti-fragile" means or is there some argument that I am not aware of that claims Bitcoin is not anti-fragile?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile:_Things_That_Gain_from_Disorder

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdxnh/mt_gox_call_center_post_your_experiences_here/?sort=new

The only information people seem to have gotten from the Gox support line so far is that some of the operators only speak Japanese and that they're uploading more information to their website later today.

The wall never stood a chance. But he obviously wanted to buy, fair play to him.

Well, it is a real wall 

Keep in mind that Jorge is more than just an academic.  He's a counter-revolutionary.  Anything that does some kind of damage to Bitcoin is a straw of hope at which to snatch.  Anything to forfend a future in which your children are not slaves of the fiat system.

lol were not even above where we were around 24 hours ago and as soon as that wall is pulled or eaten were back down to 560