But there's another observation that shouldn't be ignored: gox and stamp prices (to pick out the 2 big Western exchanges) have always been highly correlated. There's a large gap between absolute prices, but the correlation still exists (although I suspect it is lower now than it was 1 year ago -- I should look at this again).
That said, here's the observation: in the last week or two, it was apparent that stamp was rather reluctant to follow gox in its tumble to zero. There is no "instrumental" reason I can think of (as in: some obvious way for automated trading profiting on stable prices on stamp vs. falling prices on gox), so large scale manipulation non-withstanding (which I am always rather sceptical about as an explanation), I consider another interpreation:
The crash on gox revealed buying pressure that lay dormant in the otherwise "overpriced" market. Similar to how the SR closure started the rally, because it revealed the pent up buying pressure by bringing price temporarily low enough for the sideline fiat to enter.
Note that I'm unconvinced the 2nd explanation is the right one. I'm just pointing out that I *can* see another way for the price difference to resolve, other than the other exchanges being brought down by cheap gox btc.
That may be for the long run, after the dust settles, but the next days after (if?) MtGox is alive again it will be a bloodbath out there, I can't see any other option:
- Huge gap waiting to be closed (it won't be only Gox going to 600+, a lot of people want to be out of there ASAP).
- People scared with 90%+ of their money on BTCGox (there are a LOT of people like this) going to a more 50% fiat 50% BTC
- Huge warning these days of things that can go wrong on BTC world, result: People cashing benefits on relieable markets
- Few new money entering BTC world with all this "noise".
- ...
I'm bullish on the long run. And with long I mean +2 years, but next weeks (Gox dies or Gox resumes withdrawals, it's the same) are going to be RED on other markets.
Well, there you have the difference between us then: You are already _sure_ about what will happen, and I am not, and am willing to wait another day or two of more volume to see what reopening of withdrawals entails. Time will tell which strategy was the better one.
