Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29380. (Read 26610081 times)

Yes, I agree, I would rather get in BTC, All or nothing right, if Gox goes belly up, you'll have to wait what, 2-5 years and probably take a 50%+ haircut on the fiat anyway if you see any fiat at all.

I agree. I didn't panic sell because I didn't see the point, however had I been smarter/riskier, I should have sold at 500 and rebought at 100. Hindsight, right?

There still remains a good chance the market will crash again- but how would I really know? I've played the market like this before and been burned, badly. So in the end, despite kicking myself about all the BTC I could have had but don't, I at least save myself from the even greater anguish of potentially thinking about all the BTC i DID have, but now I DONT. :-)

It's probably a bit more complicated than that. It really runs down to the following questions:

1) if (and if so, to what extent), and when will gox allow btc withdrawals again

2) assuming withdrawals are reenabled, how will the price difference be settled

There's the, plausible, I admit, scenario that cheap coins flood the other markets, and selling pressure will drive price down on stamp and the others.

But there's another observation that shouldn't be ignored: gox and stamp prices (to pick out the 2 big Western exchanges) have always been highly correlated. There's a large gap between absolute prices, but the correlation still exists (although I suspect it is lower now than it was 1 year ago -- I should look at this again).

That said, here's the observation: in the last week or two, it was apparent that stamp was rather reluctant to follow gox in its tumble to zero. There is no "instrumental" reason I can think of (as in: some obvious way for automated trading profiting on stable prices on stamp vs. falling prices on gox), so large scale manipulation non-withstanding (which I am always rather sceptical about as an explanation), I consider another interpreation:

The crash on gox revealed buying pressure that lay dormant in the otherwise "overpriced" market. Similar to how the SR closure started the rally, because it revealed the pent up buying pressure by bringing price temporarily low enough for the sideline fiat to enter.

Note that I'm unconvinced the 2nd explanation is the right one. I'm just pointing out that I *can* see another way for the price difference to resolve, other than the other exchanges being brought down by cheap gox btc.

EDIT: stable, not rising prices on stamp

If that's true it's horrible advice. Stupid lawyers trying to make a buck. Horrible advice.

There is decent chance we see $100 again. All we need is another bad update from Gox. People are stupid.

Sure, Panic sellers on Stamp deserve all the fleeching, but Gox panic sellers I can understand do a degree (lawyers telling them to get in fiat).

I didn't panic sell, but I sold in order to get more btc. I had set a buy at $100 but Gox canceled it, leaving my buy at $91.5. Gox hit $95 just before bouncing to $260. Now I am left with 1/3 of my coins. A lot of my orders get canceled on Gox for some reason. 

In my opinion panic sellers deserve fleecing. I posted about this days ago. However that's different than rooting for an exchange to go insolvent and for thousands of people to lose their money. That's cruel.

I would like to see Gox go away as much as anyone, but not in a way where people lose their money simply for having it there.

You're probably right about the "emotional investment to gox dying" part, but I don't see how people in here are less excited about the rise than the crash. The difference is that there was, I agree, some amount of Schadenfreude when gox fell, then again, also quite a few expressed anger about what looked like panic sellers getting fleeced.

Bear traps everywhere

625!  Looks like an upgrade is in order:

Nice drink, just don't drunk trade

well played...well played....

sigh....all this bitcoin drama makes me horny

Searing

meaning:

I need a link to where you shop!

Finally someone who understands.

just a smidge lower and i'm up enough on the day to buy a nice 18 year old.

3. noobs, hodling out of instinct and going wtf?

Cheer up, sad Bitcoin. PayPal's software doesn't get anything either.

People have built up a serious emotional investment in wanting to see MtGox die, and I feel that they are associating this with a price of 0. They probably also can't handle how MtGox leads the other exchanges in direction. All this anger and hate was really quite incredible to watch, I'm quite certain that it has contributed to bad decision making.