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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29381. (Read 26610090 times)

N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Strange how everyone enjoys watching the logical crash but cries about the inevitable rise.
People have built up a serious emotional investment in wanting to see MtGox die, and I feel that they are associating this with a price of 0. They probably also can't handle how MtGox leads the other exchanges in direction. All this anger and hate was really quite incredible to watch, I'm quite certain that it has contributed to bad decision making.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
Bitfinex ... I know they look shady.

How so?

I've seen action on their order book which would be criminal in more regulated markets, but to my knowledge they've only ever dealt freely, never broken a fiduciary promise.

full member
Activity: 216
Merit: 100
RicePicker
If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

Since there will definitely be a mad scramble of people buying coins to GTFO of Gox there will be a huge surge in price as the ASK side thins down. I wonder if anyone is stupid enough to continue depositing coins into Gox lured by the prices?  
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
Strange how everyone enjoys watching the illogical crash but cries about the inevitable rise.

But but, the bull trap is finished, and we´re about to crash once again  Cheesy
member
Activity: 73
Merit: 10
1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

People tend to hold when they're underwater. I suspect the $90 sellers bought a little lower last year and wanted to get out while they could still claim a win.

legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
Strange how everyone enjoys watching the illogical crash but cries about the inevitable rise.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

Highly unethical of gox to let this happen (or actually promote it).

But thats a good point TERA, Only note that there will be capital controls at gox to limit outflow.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
From their FAQ, is this strictly true?
"Bitcoin is a free software project with no central authority, with no entry fees and no gain from anyone."

Miners by definition keep fees. Gavin gets a salary to develop Bitcoin.
But Bitcoin gets nothing.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.
It's quite sad how easily manipulated people are in their emotions (one of which has been anger, btw) and give in to a narrative that is simply the greatest bullshit ever told: That an immovable mtgoxUSD has 4-5x the value of a semi-liquid mtgoxBTC, or phrased differently, that the mtgoxUSD/mtgoxBTC rate is at all reflective of a possible insolvency on the exchange's part.

One only needs to look at r/bitcoin, from there it is easy to figure out which cliff the masses are jumping off next. Herd mentality is hazardous for the wallet.
full member
Activity: 192
Merit: 100
2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

THIS.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
Neo & Bee have got their new website live in anticipation of tomorrows opening.

You should check it out.
http://www.neo-bee.com/index.php/en/

Whether you think having a BTC-bank is a good idea or not, you should agree this is going to be a new marker in path the to adoption.

From their FAQ, is this strictly true?
"Bitcoin is a free software project with no central authority, with no entry fees and no gain from anyone."

Miners by definition keep fees. Gavin gets a salary to develop Bitcoin.
full member
Activity: 192
Merit: 100
The second withdrawals work, theres no arbitrage opportunity anymore, gox premium will return (gox price $1000).

The second Gox opens bitcoins will start flying outside, edges will be closed ASAP, people with bitcoins ready at other markets and fiat on Gox will sell on others and buy on Gox, virtually doubling (depending on the gap) the amount of BTC they have.
Whales don't care about fiat, they wouldn't be here (almost impossible to get huge amounts of bitcoins in fiat anywhere in a timely fashion): All they care if to have MORE bitcoins, and boy, with this arbitrage opportunity, they will get a LOT.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

All very Darwinian...
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
You better bet if profits are going to be made, people are going to wire a ton of money into Mtgox and take advantage of bitcoinbuilders price difference to make a quick buck. I am pretty sure there were a few people that tired to milk the process slowly, but then began a race to make the most profit. Now that the difference between bitcoinbuilder and Mtgox/BSP price have almost equalize the question is what will happen next?

The risk of depositing money into GOX is significantly increased when the difference between bitcoinbuilder and Gox/BSP close to less than 10%.


Agreed - I am trying to see if Bitcoinbuilder follows Gox, or the other way around.

The prices seem tight to each other, so the valuation of Gox Bux IS the BB price - but if BB isn't as quick to respond (likely) will buyers get more cautious and bid lower...   BB could crash Gox bubble pretty fast.

I am curious as to how this plays out - it is indeed riskier as of course the risk that 'gox crashes out' is not getting the same risk premium so Gox is potentially overbought*.


*Edit: for those putting new fiat in to buy sell via BB
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
The second withdrawals work, theres no arbitrage opportunity anymore, gox premium will return (gox price $1000).
unless the market has lost its confidence in gox solvency.  in which case the gox  price could make an ATH
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...

The second withdrawals work, theres no arbitrage opportunity anymore, gox premium will return (gox price $1000).
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500

I wonder if I can hop a free ride in the wheel well? It's all I can afford, and I would love to see the moon this time of year.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/15/us/dulles-body-found-airplane/
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
the question is what will happen next?
and the answer is YES!

another question:  do i have the cojones to stay short for some real coins, or do i walk away with my scalping pocket change gain?
full member
Activity: 192
Merit: 100
I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...
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