Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29511. (Read 26608343 times)

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Feb/20

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-02-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price:  3800 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 621 USD

For yesterday's prediction I had used a least-squares-fitted line over the last 4 True Slumber Points (mean prices at 19:00--19:59 where Huobi had nearly zero trade).  It turns out that the forecast would have been more accurate if I had put more trust in the method, and used all yellow dots since Feb/10 in the fit.

Thus,  tomorrows forecast for Huobi, above, was obtained by fitting a straight line to the last seven True Slumber Points (yellow dots) at  February 10, 12, 14, 15, 17, and 18, and 19,  and extrapolating that trend line for one more day.  The prices are ~4080,  ~4006, ~4004, ~3961, ~3905, ~3817, and ~3832, respectively; which extrapolate to ~3800 CNY.  



The prediction for Bitstamp, as usual, is that for Huobi divided by the normal currency factor R = 6.12.

NOTE 1: Those predictions are conditional to Huobi's clients and their robots being all in bed by Feb/20 19:00 UTC.  Otherwise the Method offers no prediction.

EDIT PS. the "confidence intervals" in previous forecasts were not based on any logic; I should have not posted them, sorry. I could compute a "nominal confidence interval" based on the deviation of the yellow dots from the fitted line, but that would not serve any purpose other than providing an excuse for errors.  Therefore, from now on I will post only the central value of the prediciton, without any "confidence inerval".  The prediction error will be mesured post-facto from that central value, as it has been so far.

GOX me once shame on you

GOX me twice....

...waiting for price to rocket around like a pinball on the Gox announcement...
Edit: with Guinness beer in hand.

Maybe, they also don't want to see a mass exodus.

Limiting withdrawals means the price will rise and people wont be able to get their coins all out and will be tempted to trade it, thus the goxxing begins again...

yes, I read that and thought the same thing, everyone reads that and thinks " its official they don't have all the coins"

they want to do everything possible to prevent a run on the bank, which will probably intensify the run on the bank....

But doesn't the limit suggest Gox doesn't have sufficient coins on hand?

I think people take the concept of 'money' so for-granted that they cannot fathom how simply changing the way money works could lead to all sorts of efficiencies and wealth creation for society.  

The intersection my apartment overlooks actually has a financial institution on each corner.  Each of these four banks is full of offices with computers and lights burning electricity, employees drawing a paycheque, and unhappy customers wasting their precious time in lines.  I get a lonely feeling when I walk past these banks--like I can see a future so clearly that most of the population hasn't woken up to yet.  

Perhaps it will be 2016 or perhaps it will be much further out, but peer-to-peer electronic cash is coming.  For hundreds of years, people 'headed west' to build a better life for themselves and their families.  'The West' was a source of negative entropy, due to its abundance of untapped resources, cheap land, and lack of regulations.  

Bitcoin is also a source of negative entropy.  You can still head west.  

bullish for gox's price thats for sure.

Stamps will dip a bit, but this will signal the end of GOX FUD and the end of cheap coins, so we'll probably end up above 1800 in a few business day

SOMETHING there is that doesn't love a wall,   
That sends the frozen-ground-swell under it,   
And spills the upper boulders in the sun;   
And makes gaps even two can pass abreast.

Suppose Gox resumes withdrawals but enforces an arbitrary limit on everybody differently.

Just appeared in last 10 minutes, before that only bot fractions.

Suppose Gox resumes withdrawals but enforces a 10 btc per day limit. Bullish or bearish?

there is a wall

You should study more austrian economics if you wan´t to understand that!

How the hell does Gox have a floor like that with no bid wall??  

20% of bitcoiners reported that the FUD was getting to them!

new poll

lol you people just keep giving and giving.

For someone so well educated, you sure don't know the basics of what Ponzi and Pyramid schemes are.

lollol

99% of all transactions on Gox are fake and made up
Gamblin with money due to "walls" on Gox
Seems legit

Enough with this waiting, let's get the party started.