Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29507. (Read 26608306 times)
February 19, 2014, 07:32:24 PM
https://blockchain.info/ 53 minutes for a single block, I'm beginning to appreciate Quarks 30 second blocks.
February 19, 2014, 07:30:34 PM
"We will update everyone again by Thursday at the latest"~mt. Gox Team
Way to exceed expectations, Guys.
Way to exceed expectations, Guys.
They'll wait until COB too.
Par for the course.
February 19, 2014, 07:26:38 PM
"We will update everyone again by Thursday at the latest"~mt. Gox Team
Way to exceed expectations, Guys.
Way to exceed expectations, Guys.
February 19, 2014, 07:21:00 PM
Wow last block cleared 40 minutes ago, it is taking so long for my XBT to arrive @ Gox.
https://blockchain.info/
why is the network so slow?
https://blockchain.info/
why is the network so slow?
You're sending your BTC to Gox?
Do you have a screw loose?
February 19, 2014, 07:15:41 PM
The last 10 pages include the discussion about how so called "victims" from Gox can get some money back after Gox gone broke.
So, did anyone see an update yet? With Gox saying:
Sup dudes,
Sorry... but we fucked up this time, like pretty bad. Shit's gone, but thats life.
Kindest regards.
I didnt. Gox will regulate with's and buy orders.
Hell, if they smart... they minimize withdrawal orders and maximize buy orders. Price shoots up, people still withdraw and they make shitloads on fees.
One way or another, I'm just waiting for that announcement. Cause honestly, nobody deserves losing money. Even speculating about how they could get their money back, gives me shivers.
So, did anyone see an update yet? With Gox saying:
Sup dudes,
Sorry... but we fucked up this time, like pretty bad. Shit's gone, but thats life.
Kindest regards.
I didnt. Gox will regulate with's and buy orders.
Hell, if they smart... they minimize withdrawal orders and maximize buy orders. Price shoots up, people still withdraw and they make shitloads on fees.
One way or another, I'm just waiting for that announcement. Cause honestly, nobody deserves losing money. Even speculating about how they could get their money back, gives me shivers.
February 19, 2014, 07:14:26 PM
In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?
In part, perhaps. In any case, it's highly unlikely that they were "wiped out". If they are insolvent, I find it hard to believe they are irreparably so (barring a shutdown by regulators). But this is one theory, and it's bolstered by the fact that Gox's failed transaction problems appear to stem back to October 2013. This length of time is concerning.
The question is what was Gox's reconciliation process when re-sending failed transactions and withdrawing from cold storage? As I've said before, we know absolutely nothing. So to assume that they either did or did not have proper controls in place is misguided.
How long was this going on? To what extent was the vulnerability exploited? These questions cannot be answered -- certainly, Gox has no interest in that.
February 19, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
February 19, 2014, 07:10:07 PM
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.
If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.
And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.
One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.
That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.
it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy
Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?
I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.
That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.
So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.
What will regulators do -- pour all the BTC into Mpex?
I'm sure there's large holders that would be willing to write up some off-exchange contracts. And as for reasoning: the obvious volatility of BTC assets. I am totally unsure of precedent though, especially in Japan (I just found a PDF of a Brazilian bankruptcy proceeding where the debtors were required to be paid in the original denomination unless they indicated otherwise, but I doubt that's helpful).
In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?
It seems some people here do not know that japan has a very strict insolvency law, I don't think that it is in any way legal there to sell of funds which do not legally belong to gox - That would be the same as selling all the stuff in safety boxes which are stored in an insolvent bank.
That aside, no one really believes gox is insolvent. How could they be? They made so much money on the fees in the last few weeks alone, they have nearly no running costs and the accounts frozen by the feds are frozen because of ongoing investigations, so there is no legal way for people owning those to make gox responsible. The only thing would be the transaction maleability, and one would think that they could have easily bought those amounts back in the last few days without a hassle.
February 19, 2014, 07:08:54 PM
February 19, 2014, 07:08:03 PM
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.
If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.
And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.
One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.
That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.
it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy
Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?
I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.
That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.
So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.
What will regulators do -- pour all the BTC into Mpex?
I'm sure there's large holders that would be willing to write up some off-exchange contracts. And as for reasoning: the obvious volatility of BTC assets. I am totally unsure of precedent though, especially in Japan (I just found a PDF of a Brazilian bankruptcy proceeding where the debtors were required to be paid in the original denomination unless they indicated otherwise, but I doubt that's helpful).
In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?
February 19, 2014, 07:07:44 PM
In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?
doubt it, but they could have funds locked by law enforcement for other reasons.
February 19, 2014, 07:06:18 PM
How fucking creepy is that?
What I wonder about is whether they both turn up for publicity photoshoots and meetings.I mean, if you are multimillionaires, your time is valuable, right? And if you are a clone of your bro, you are unlikely to be able to add anything to what you bro says in news conferences, right?
So if I were a Winkle, I would take it in turns in the business meetings, publicity stunts, etc., and just take a large mirror along and stick it next to me in place of my twin. The other half of the time I would sit on a beach drinking martinis while my bro did his shift.
If this pic isn't just one photoshopped Winkle, these guys need to learn about time management....
And maybe wear different ties.
February 19, 2014, 07:05:21 PM
Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?
vanishingly unlikely
February 19, 2014, 07:03:24 PM
February 19, 2014, 06:58:37 PM
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.
If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.
And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.
One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.
That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.
it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy
Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?
I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.
That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.
So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.
What will regulators do -- pour all the BTC into Mpex?
I'm sure there's large holders that would be willing to write up some off-exchange contracts. And as for reasoning: the obvious volatility of BTC assets. I am totally unsure of precedent though, especially in Japan (I just found a PDF of a Brazilian bankruptcy proceeding where the debtors were required to be paid in the original denomination unless they indicated otherwise, but I doubt that's helpful).
In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?
February 19, 2014, 06:57:29 PM
That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.
So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.
Precisely, which is why a BTC obligation holder could end up getting only a few milliBTC or even only a few satoshi on the BTC.
February 19, 2014, 06:53:57 PM
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.
If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.
And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.
One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.
That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.
it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy
Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?
I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.
That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.
So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.
What will regulators do -- pour all the BTC into Mpex?
February 19, 2014, 06:49:39 PM
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.
If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.
And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.
One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.
That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.
it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy
Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?
I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.
It really seems like people are leaning toward expecting the absolute worst from MTGox, which is funny because Bitcoin itself could crater at any time. Holding bitcoin (of any type) takes a certain amount of faith.
(Speaking of which, Gox's issues could just as easily be solved by a drop in BTC/JPY.)
February 19, 2014, 06:46:43 PM
So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.
If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.
And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.
One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.
That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.
No. it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy and then the BTC/JPY rate sky rockets. How this is handled during a bankruptcy can create a real legal mess between the creditors holding BTC claims and the creditors holding fiat claims.
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