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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29516. (Read 26608419 times)

legendary
Activity: 3374
Merit: 4738
diamond-handed zealot
the butthurt of late adopters is sweet, sweet nectar
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
+1 Wow... you are really an early adopter.  Congrats!

Especially those who reserved a couple million bitcoins for themselves at the beginning, and thus (like the "me" in my parable) have invested nothing and will walk out with a fortune.

Satoshi invested NOTHING? He only invested his/their lifetime to learning to code, learning about currency and cryptography. He invested his intelligence, reputation, time and money into creating software for the entire world to use freely. If he invested nothing into Bitcoin then you invested nothing in becoming a University Professor.

Once he created the software he mined <4000 coins (80 blocks @ 50BTC reward, basically testing the software) before releasing it to the world. Note this was several years before 10,000 coins would even buy a pizza. Satoshi risked the cost of his electricity to mine worthless "ledger coins."

"When Satoshi announced the first release of the software, I grabbed it right away. I think I was the first person besides Satoshi to run bitcoin. I mined block 70-something, and I was the recipient of the first bitcoin transaction, when Satoshi sent ten coins to me as a test. I carried on an email conversation with Satoshi over the next few days, mostly me reporting bugs and him fixing them." - Hal Finney, on block number
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-and-me-hal-finney-155054

I'm generously using 80 since Hal's "70-something" could be 79. Other sources claim blocks as early as 12 may have been mined by others: http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/satoshi-s-fortune-a-more-accurate-figure/

Original block reward was 50 coins:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Bitcoin

And of course Satoshi continued mining after that. It was his project afterall. In the beginning if he didn't use it, who would? The rewards came fast back then and he accumulated many before apparent stopping. It is believed his stash is unspent but who knows for sure, and why would it matter? He deserves every penny for his innovation.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
Jesus, such long ass posts.
Do some people on here actually work and sleep? Like Jorge, that man writes books.
Enough with the dramatic theory's, worse case scenarios and bible talks about this all.
Makes my head spin.

Me likey Bitcoin. Bitcoin show promise. Jorge think Bitcoin is ponzi. He newbie. He see tree and not the Satoshi Forest.
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
I don't mind Jorge, since the beginning I find him as more educated version of my dad. My dad would never ever invest in Bitcoin because that's not that, it's nothing, bla-bla-bla...

Jorge is more educated and able to articulate those points, and that's it. He is used to make money teaching, writing books and there's nothing outside of that world for him and people like him from other branches (like my dad).

That's fine and nothing new.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
* Investment in stocks Bitcoin is not a zero-sum game.  A long-term stock BTC investment is a loan to the company community of Bitcoin owners, who hopefully uses that money to create new real wealth (goods or services) that is worth more than the money invested in it.  Part of that extra wealth is returned to the long-term investor as dividends freedom from fiat's inflationary death spiral, part is returned through the increase in stock Bitcoin price related to increase in the assets of the company community (e.g. new factories services built with money from profits that was not distributed as dividends).  Thus investing in stocks Bitcoin can make people richer without making anyone poorer.
FTFY


* Money that is invested into bitcoins stocks is not being given solely to the "company" for it to build the infrastructure and paying the costs of doing its service.  Often the upper echelon "company" owners instead pillage the investments as exorbitant salaries even as they cut salaries for underlings, destroying the "new improvements" that the bitcoin project stocks are meant to create. Much of it goes into the pockets of other stock traders, some into the pockets of stock exchange operators.  The "company" does not pay dividends to bitcoin investors community, and these do not own a single chip from that "company".  So, investing into bitcoins (the world community's currency and technological marvel) is not at all like investing in Google or Apple (a single company's) stock.
FTFY


* By simply moving a fixed amount of money and bitcoins around, bitcoin trading cannot make everybody rich, not even in the average sense.  That is something that a college education may help understand: in basic physics you learn that you cannot create mass, charge, or energy by smartly moving those things around.

Whether Bitcoin is truly fixed is arguable. The point is that the issuance of the currency is fixed, however the total amount at any given time may not be known because some will be lost over time. What you call "moving around money and bitcoins" would be equal to me saying "moving around money and stocks" yet you don't have any problem seeing that investing in a stock can produce more wealth by growing services.

Investing in Bitcoin is growing services. There's no 2 ways about it. Interesting that you don't see this even as the economy around Bitcoin grows. Every day on reddit 5-10 businesses announce they now accept Bitcoin, plus some new companies announce they are opening solely around the Bitcoin technology.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Especially those who reserved a couple million bitcoins for themselves at the beginning, and thus (like the "me" in my parable) have invested nothing and will walk out with a fortune.

Satoshi invested NOTHING? He only invested his/their lifetime to learning to code, learning about currency and cryptography. He invested his intelligence, reputation, time and money into creating software for the entire world to use freely. If he invested nothing into Bitcoin then you invested nothing in becoming a University Professor.



+1
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
Fuck me. Flatline ftw.



Quiet before the storm kicks in. As some said already, HODL ffs.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 540
@KeyserSoze : IMO you nailed the whole thing pretty well.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
Especially those who reserved a couple million bitcoins for themselves at the beginning, and thus (like the "me" in my parable) have invested nothing and will walk out with a fortune.

Satoshi invested NOTHING? He only invested his/their lifetime to learning to code, learning about currency and cryptography. He invested his intelligence, reputation, time and money into creating software for the entire world to use freely. If he invested nothing into Bitcoin then you invested nothing in becoming a University Professor.

Once he created the software he mined <4000 coins (80 blocks @ 50BTC reward, basically testing the software) before releasing it to the world. Note this was several years before 10,000 coins would even buy a pizza. Satoshi risked the cost of his electricity to mine worthless "ledger coins."

"When Satoshi announced the first release of the software, I grabbed it right away. I think I was the first person besides Satoshi to run bitcoin. I mined block 70-something, and I was the recipient of the first bitcoin transaction, when Satoshi sent ten coins to me as a test. I carried on an email conversation with Satoshi over the next few days, mostly me reporting bugs and him fixing them." - Hal Finney, on block number
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-and-me-hal-finney-155054

I'm generously using 80 since Hal's "70-something" could be 79. Other sources claim blocks as early as 12 may have been mined by others: http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/satoshi-s-fortune-a-more-accurate-figure/

Original block reward was 50 coins:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Bitcoin

And of course Satoshi continued mining after that. It was his project afterall. In the beginning if he didn't use it, who would? The rewards came fast back then and he accumulated many before apparent stopping. It is believed his stash is unspent but who knows for sure, and why would it matter? He deserves every penny for his innovation.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 250
Nice teaching post. I really enjoyed it. In a way I think most people here would be more relaxed if they weren't invested more than they could afford.

If you invest more than you afford to lose in bitcoin and for some reason it fails, I think you will have to blame yourself for that mistake.
KFR
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
Per ardua ad luna
the calm b4 the storm...

shit may or may not hit the fan in ~12hours.

in any case HODL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

+1

Cool
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
oh no. not the ponzi thing again.  Roll Eyes

Is why I mentioned Eternal September earlier. The forum will continually replenish the newish folks who are going through the process of learning about Bitcoin. Many of these folks don't bother looking at past threads or using Google to help them learn. Bringing up ponzi is a first step on their road to learning, however some get stuck there...
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
the calm b4 the storm...

shit may or may not hit the fan in ~12hours.

in any case HODL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
I have promised to keep my negative views to myself in this forum, but you insist asking for them...

All I hope for is honesty. Thanks for that.


Is what I wrote on twitter and put on my homepage any different from what I already wrote here?

I believe your tone has been different. I haven't seen you here call anyone a scammer, fool or sucker yet but maybe I missed it. I haven't seen you gloat over an investor's loss here yet but maybe I missed it. I do however see consistency in your pointing out the negative aspects.


(You missed my last tweet, "One day bitcoins will be worth their weight in gold".)

Saw it but others have posted before. It is clever until one quickly realizes that USD, Rubles, Yuan, etc. will all also be worth zero one day.

The UK used to use sticks as money. Native American Indians used shells. Just as oddly "pre-Information Age" currencies use paper and bits of near-worthless metals. The Information Age uses encrypted bytes and they'll, just as strangely, be worth as much as sticks, shells, and paper were. Today those bytes are worth @624 times USD.


Even if bitcoin ultmately succeeds (which I wish it will, but doubt it) and bitcoins becomes extremely valuable (which I very much doubt they will)

They're extremely valuable *now* so you've lost that bit of your argument already. I sometimes wonder if Bitcoin has staying power myself but I believe that code changes can be made to it as necessitated to keep it healthy, as have already been done. I watch as more tech gets added on top of it. Though the heart of it solves and old problem with virtual currencies, it does seem a bit creaky to base a worldwide currency on. I wonder if something more solid (seemingly, to me) will come along but in any case I am aware the project is in Beta and as Gavin has claimed many times, it's an experiment.

From my point of view a part of it has already succeeded. I bought some. Not only did I make some money (investment paid off) but I was lucky enough to purchase many gifts last year for the holidays with it (using as a currency). With new developments I wonder if I will write my Final Will with it (using it as legal documentation) or vote for a President of my country with it (using as voting mechanism).

Can you see you need to separate your views about Bitcoin's "fiat worth" from its "technology worth" -- the potential to drastically change things worlwide?


However, this particular game will be profitable for its current players only if the price goes up; and that is not likely to happen if the "market" consists of the same guys trading the same bitcoins and the same dollars back and forth among themselves.  In order for the price to go up, and the old players to make substantial profits, new players must come in and bring new money.

I imagine other forces are at work on the price aside from the back and forth of current investors. That is the economy growing up around Bitcoin.

Anyway even if Bitcoin exchange speculation is nothing but pure gambling you said you weren't against folks gambling so why do you complain about it? because you think the house is rigged? You know the house always wins, right, even in Vegas? This is why it's called gambling. Sounds like gambling is OK with you as long as it doesn't happen in your backyard. NIMBY?


So, in that aspect bitcoin trading is indeed a classical Ponzi schema: the money invested by new members is used to pay the large profits of the early joiners -- if these are smart enough cash out while the price is higher than what they paid for their coins.  The net effect of the game is to shift money from the late entrant' pockets to those of the early entrants.

Honestly, I think many of us go through this phase because in the beginning we do not see how bytes can be worth money. But then if we come back and do some research we learn about money. We learn about the Two Generals. We test the currency and it works. It's cool and fun and easy to use (not necessarily to obtain but that will improve). It's a bit rickety around the edges; it has its flaws but it is new. The internet was rickety in the beginning. We see potential.

Bitcoin isn't a project which concerns itself only with exchange rate. It is being used for currency, store of value, legal contracts, voting mechanisms; the potential is a bit mind boggling.

A ponzi is created from the beginning with intent to fraud investors. Bitcoin is an innovation that solved a very real problem in the crypto community and an exchange price arose from that, along with more innovation on top of the protocol.


And that is when the game stops being OK.  That is because in order to lure new players, some of the bitcoin "evangelists" are resorting to plain lies, painting bitcoin as a "good investment", an hedge against "rampaging inflation", etc.  They keep showing that false arithmetic of total e-commerce divided by 21 million.

What you call "luring new players" I personally think of as excitement to share this awesome new technology, with an added bonus of potential monetary gain. I tried to get a brother of mine interested around $140 because it looked pretty certain to go up and he could use the help. But he was afraid and I didn't badger him. I did give some to my family last Xmas and told them to just hold it, but that if they got interested in Bitcoin to talk to me first because there is quite a bit of shadiness in the culture at the moment.

I do have my concerns that if Bitcoin is infinitely divisible why would it be worth anything? I feel it has to do with the psychology of someone wanting to own a whole coin, or really, "more" of anything. Some people always want more. They can pay and so they do. When the UK used sticks for currency I'm sure there was always some fellow who wanted one more notch on his stick than anyone else. In other words, most volume knobs only go to 10 but some folks will eventually get amplifiers that go to 11... because more is better.


Some still claim that bitcoin payments are untraceable and un-seizeable. (You may have seen my tweets a couple of weeks ago where I argue with someone who claimed just that.)

Funny thing is it is pretty good at being anonymous until one begins using 3rd parties, or until law enforcement gets access to someone's records/diary, or decides they have the budget to prosecute and issue search warrants to providers for IPs, etc. Once they correlate a name with a BTC address, and have access to records where one has recorded a payment to another's address (tied to a name), then they can easily unravel all the addresses in that chain of transactions. So it is basically near useless at anonymity for the people who'd need it most.

Now if criminals were to encrypt their data and stay vigilant with PGP communications.... but most people in this world are too lazy or complacent for all that.


And the bitcoin salesmen conveniently forget to mention the growing legal barriers, the dozens of exchange failures that ate millions from their clients, and the many other things that would turn sensible people, even uneducated ones, away from the bitcoin game.

You see growing legal barriers, I see growing legal acceptance. There has been fraud, surely, as in any currency. You've likely heard of Wall Street in the U.S. (also known as "business Harlem")? This clip is funny because it's true.  Wink
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-august-13-2013/frisky-business---jessica-williams


One feature of Ponzi schemes is that most people who join feel the urge to become salesmen and convince others to join too.

You mean proselytizing, like a religion? Or do you mean it's like telling one's friends about the Walking Dead on AMC because it is a frigging awesome TV show? Or perhaps telling friends to go to Disney World if they've never been because it is a wonderful experience? Or "try the Grape Meatballs, they're delicious!" We enjoy something, we share it.


It was the opening of the Chinese market that lifted the bitcoin price from the low tens to 1200, and it is the Chinese who are holding it at the present levels.  But that market is no longer growing. So, where will the necessary new suckers come from?

I don't see suckers. I see people continuing to come into the market from all over the world as they go through the learning process and begin to see why Bitcoin is more than the sum of its parts, mostly because the parts are so exciting and we can't see them all even now.

None of us knows if China was the reason for the lift, or which exchanges may use fraudulent transaction/price data. I personally assume most of Gox and Huobi transactions are internal bot price fixing. Plan accordingly.


I have seen people here and elsewhere saying that the only hope left now is Latin America.  Well, I cannot sit and watch fellow countrymen being conned, can I?

Haven't heard this but I better understand your sentiment. "Gambling is OK with me except NIMBY. And even as a computer scientist I'm too short-sighted to see the massive digital potential, which grows as we speak, aside from price gambling."
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2267
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
hero member
Activity: 624
Merit: 502
So another pretty boring week in bitcoin speculation world ? I just hope this Mt.Gox movie will just come to an end. It looks like a terrible comedy.


It's a remake of Free Willy, starring Mark in a black and white wet suit.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 250
So another pretty boring week in bitcoin speculation world ? I just hope this Mt.Gox movie will just come to an end. It looks like a terrible comedy.

Meanwhile I see that bitcoin ATM are starting to appear all over the place. If they start to get some adoption I bet they will spread like wildfire at least in major cities.
full member
Activity: 136
Merit: 100
Why the long face?
In other meta news: with the change to the newbie policy, we've seen a great increase in genuinely trollish/FUD threads and a decrease in high-quality posts.  I hope that the forum administrators will revisit their policies, perhaps even disallowing members below a certain activity level from starting threads.

+1    Newbie purgatory wasn't much fun, but it didn't last long and it didn't stop me from lurking the rest of the forum.  This forum was a better read when there were fewer disposable accounts.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/61200 Interesting read if you have time.

Banking doesn't need a conspiracy. Banking is an open conspiracy, hidden only by complexity. It is ultimately held together only by the threat of force levied at the tax livestock (citizens) of the world governments. It's backed by the point of a gun. Repeal legal tender laws and it would collapse overnight.

legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
In other meta news: with the change to the newbie policy, we've seen a great increase in genuinely trollish/FUD threads and a decrease in high-quality posts.  I hope that the forum administrators will revisit their policies, perhaps even disallowing members below a certain activity level from starting threads.

100% agreement.

I've argue in this thread to set a 'minimum activity level' per sub-board, so that you e.g. had to "earn" some activity points first in a 'newbie' forum, basically: a slight modification of the previous "newbie hell" system, but allowing different boards to set different levels of what they consider newbies. Didn't get picked up (or even responded to) by theymos, though :/
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