Andreas obliterates Mt. Gox management team:
http://letstalkbitcoin.com/e85-mtgox-and-malleability/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#.UwQ7JV5sgfE
For those who want real info and not just the usual tripe found on this thread.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29526. (Read 26608968 times)
February 19, 2014, 12:27:01 AM
February 19, 2014, 12:08:11 AM
I would consider legitimate (i.e. not "fake") any transaction between competing people or organizations, whether it is done manually or with the help of scripts and robots. Any such transaction contributes to define the true "market price" of the item. To a first approximation, it should not matter if the same coins are being traded back and forth many times, or how many distinct people are trading, as long as each transaction happens because both sides believe that the price is good. To me a transaction is "fake" only if the buyer and seller are the same, or are colluding outside the market place.
Methinks that the volume of legitimate transactions is a good measure of the importance of a market.
Although I agree with your basic premise behind a legitimate transaction, I think that how many people trade the system and how many actual coins make-up the market hold important implications for true value approximation - first approximations are too general for me. This information becomes even more important if you really dissect the concept of a "fake" transaction.
Lax regulation, back-room deals for large holders, and a highly interconnected group of large stakeholders (listen to Andreas towards the middle of the talk when he speaks of how the various "good" actors reacted to the Mt. Gox press release http://letstalkbitcoin.com/e85-mtgox-and-malleability/#.UwQ8K4V_e_y) create a perfect breeding ground for acts like self-trading and collusion. Houbi is likely rife with less than legitimate transactions if we use the strict definition of "fake" as per your text. Unfortunately, since these forms of collusion often are hard to discern from volume and technical analysis even in good market conditions, an unlimited algo assisted trade environment does not make the task any easier. I know I kind of went on a rant there, but the point is to acknowledge the grey nature of the environment and see that certain technical metrics are less effective at understanding the reality of the stakeholders within this market.
The higher the volume, the higher the liquidity and the smaller is the spread, therefore the price is pinned down more accurately. At BTC-e, forexample, the price often is bouncing rapidly up and down by a few dollars, so that the 1-minute plot look like a broad belt. You hardly see that at Huobi; the plot looks more like a line than a belt.
Usually, the higher the volume, the smaller is the effect on the price of buying or selling a fixed amount of coins. Therefore, arbitrage trading between a high-volume market and a low-volume market generally has little effect on the price of the former, instead copies the price to the latter. For example, I would guess that the sharp steps one can see in the 1-minute plots of BTC-China and Bitstamp (but not on Huobi's), at periods when there seems to be little real activity, are arbitrage transactions aligning their prices with the global market.
For all I have seen in the past 2-3 months, I believe that most of Huobi's volume is legitimate in this sense. At the other exchanges, I am not so sure; but even if it is all legitimate, the volume at non-Chinese exchanges is only 1/3 to 1/4 of the volume at Huobi and OKCoin. Whatever one may think of the "quality" or "meaningfulness" of their trade, it counts the same for the definition of BTC's price.
Ditto.
Also I do not think that there is any government interference with the bitcoin trading inside the exchanges. My understanding of the news is that the PBOC, having blocked the use of BTC as a currency in commerce, and prohibited banks from playing with it, now sees bitcoin trading within the exchanges as a kind of gambling, and therefore does not care about it at all.
Agreed, the government does not have direct influence inside the exchange per say, but they are still indirectly in control of how the future of trading bitcoin unfolds via regulation and other tools of submission.
Note that I said "bitcoin trading", not "bitcoin". Bitcoin development and other activities (such as promoting its commercial use) seem to be mostly "non-Chinese things". Given the restrictions on use of BTC in China, I do not expect that there will be any significant development or advocacy there, except perhaps in mining technology.
True, I should have read that sentence more carefully - BTC trading is but a part (a very large one) of the entire system and are not the same thing.
February 19, 2014, 12:03:16 AM
February 18, 2014, 11:53:04 PM
Sorry for OT guise, but just a quick question...
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
You can with those Lamassu ATM's I think.
Not yet. The Lamassu only sells bitcoins. Robocoin allows 2-way conversion.
might be, one of those two does it.
February 18, 2014, 11:43:30 PM
Wow!
This number is increasing at about 10K/day now. Was just 38K when I looked at it this morning.
February 18, 2014, 11:42:21 PM
Here's something interesting. Gox appears to breaking some type of trend. That's if you use linear scale. But if you use logarithmic scale, then it is not. I'm not sure which one to use.
February 18, 2014, 11:39:31 PM
Google translation from Huobi's site: https://www.huobi.com/
How does that compare to other exchanges?
Quote
DEPOSIT: [Huobi] net cash recharge way to support the following
Zero ordinary remittance bank transfer fees, expedited transfer of 0.3% - 0.5% fee
Working Hours: Normal remittance (9:00 - 22:00), two hours arrival.
Expedited Transfer (9:00 - 19:00), 30 minutes arrival.
WITHDRAWAL: [Huobi] network supports the following ways to cash
Bank card withdrawal withdrawals within 24 hours arrival; fee of 0.3% - 0.5%, the lower limit of 2 yuan / T
Working hours: 9:00 - 18:00
Zero ordinary remittance bank transfer fees, expedited transfer of 0.3% - 0.5% fee
Working Hours: Normal remittance (9:00 - 22:00), two hours arrival.
Expedited Transfer (9:00 - 19:00), 30 minutes arrival.
WITHDRAWAL: [Huobi] network supports the following ways to cash
Bank card withdrawal withdrawals within 24 hours arrival; fee of 0.3% - 0.5%, the lower limit of 2 yuan / T
Working hours: 9:00 - 18:00
How does that compare to other exchanges?
February 18, 2014, 11:35:20 PM
Wow!
This number is increasing at about 10K/day now. Was just 38K when I looked at it this morning.
Would you say we're getting closer to capitulation (on Gox at least)?
February 18, 2014, 11:33:43 PM
Wow!
This number is increasing at about 10K/day now. Was just 38K when I looked at it this morning.
Would you say we're getting closer to capitulation (on Gox at least)?
February 18, 2014, 11:29:47 PM
Wow!
This number is increasing at about 10K/day now. Was just 38K when I looked at it this morning.
February 18, 2014, 11:03:23 PM
February 18, 2014, 10:55:13 PM
Sorry for OT guise, but just a quick question...
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
You can with those Lamassu ATM's I think.
Ok.
gg western union.
February 18, 2014, 10:54:50 PM
Sorry for OT guise, but just a quick question...
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
You can with those Lamassu ATM's I think.
Not yet. The Lamassu only sells bitcoins. Robocoin allows 2-way conversion.
February 18, 2014, 10:54:22 PM
yeah, the good ol´times...
Much appreciated, excellent point. A picture is worth a thousand words.
February 18, 2014, 10:53:11 PM
Sorry for OT guise, but just a quick question...
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
You can with those Lamassu ATM's I think.
February 18, 2014, 10:51:44 PM
Sorry for OT guise, but just a quick question...
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
Can you buy fiat with BTC at these new ATMs? I cannot tell you how useful this would be for me.
February 18, 2014, 10:46:00 PM
Often I see here complaints about orders suddenly appearing from nowhere in order books, or statements like "there are only XXX coins left to {buy|sell} on exchange YYY".
The books at the larger sites must be huge (millions of entries perhaps), and each chart site in the world requests that data every few seconds.
Correct me if I am wrong, but those exchanges surely must truncate their answers, delivering only the first N (say, 2000) bids and asks in their order books.
The summaries that tell how many coins there are to each round price, like the two righmost columns below
are computed by the chart sites or scripts from that truncated data, so they are truncated, too. Depending on the steps and the spacing of the orders, the summary may not fill the whole space allocated on the chart.
In the example above, for example, surely there were many asks above 670 USD and many bids below 270 USD, and many more than 2058 coins for sale.
The books at the larger sites must be huge (millions of entries perhaps), and each chart site in the world requests that data every few seconds.
Correct me if I am wrong, but those exchanges surely must truncate their answers, delivering only the first N (say, 2000) bids and asks in their order books.
The summaries that tell how many coins there are to each round price, like the two righmost columns below
are computed by the chart sites or scripts from that truncated data, so they are truncated, too. Depending on the steps and the spacing of the orders, the summary may not fill the whole space allocated on the chart.
In the example above, for example, surely there were many asks above 670 USD and many bids below 270 USD, and many more than 2058 coins for sale.
Not sure what that site is, but its bad. Trading.i286.org shows relevant orderbook info 100%.
Bitcoinity.org also shows orderbook 100%, with a lag and less detail (cant see the individual ask, just a total - but an accurate one)
Clarkmoody is an inbetween. It has the individual asks and bids (up to 1000 on each side) but it isnt anything like it used to be. At one point in time it was live. Now its just... I dont even know. But it does say 17700 to 670
February 18, 2014, 10:40:52 PM
Often I see here complaints about orders suddenly appearing from nowhere in order books, or statements like "there are only XXX coins left to {buy|sell} on exchange YYY".
The books at the larger sites must be huge (millions of entries perhaps), and each chart site in the world requests that data every few seconds.
Correct me if I am wrong, but those exchanges surely must truncate their answers, delivering only the first N (say, 2000) bids and asks in their order books.
The summaries that tell how many coins there are to each round price, like the two righmost columns below
are computed by the chart sites or scripts from that truncated data, so they are truncated, too. Depending on the steps and the spacing of the orders, the summary may not fill the whole space allocated on the chart.
In the example above, for example, surely there were many asks above 670 USD and many bids below 270 USD, and many more than 2058 coins for sale.
The books at the larger sites must be huge (millions of entries perhaps), and each chart site in the world requests that data every few seconds.
Correct me if I am wrong, but those exchanges surely must truncate their answers, delivering only the first N (say, 2000) bids and asks in their order books.
The summaries that tell how many coins there are to each round price, like the two righmost columns below
are computed by the chart sites or scripts from that truncated data, so they are truncated, too. Depending on the steps and the spacing of the orders, the summary may not fill the whole space allocated on the chart.
In the example above, for example, surely there were many asks above 670 USD and many bids below 270 USD, and many more than 2058 coins for sale.
February 18, 2014, 10:19:38 PM
February 18, 2014, 10:08:11 PM
About 10k coins added to asks on MtGox >1000
Choo Choo!!
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