Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29528. (Read 26608997 times)

I'd like some of whatever you are smoking. 

Hey how do we know that GOX price is the real price of Bitcoin and the other exchanges are actually the ones that are fucked up?

Soo....  after this, CCMF/TDM, I presume.

Thanks!... 

I believe that it is a consensus that regression does not help predicting future stock prices from past prices alone; and the limited analysis that I have done agrees with that. You may have seen my previous posts on the log-Brownian (or geometric Brownian) model; although there are some more sophisticated models, they do not seem to be useful for predictions.

The model above exploits some features specific to Huobi that hopefully will let us get around that limitation.  First, Huobi seems to have little trade by unsupervised robots (which have much more varied behavior than humans, and therefore should be less predictable). Their clients apparently have relatively well-defined demographic profile, and are relatively isolated from the rest of the world in terms of economic news.   And, those clients are trading a single item (Bitcoin) and have a relatively narrow channel for injecting money into the system (local banks)

Also, Huobi has a lot more volume and liquidity than the other exchanges; the second largest, OKCoin, has only half as much. So their price is relatively indifferent to the price in those exchanges.  (Rather, it is the other exchanges that apepar to track Huobi's price.)  It is apparent from the charts that price volatility is correlated with trade volume at Huobi -- but not at other exchanges, like Bitstamp. 

As explained  earlier, the Chinese Slumber Model assumes that before Huobi's clients go to bed, their "shop closing" actions are such that the price returns to some "natural" value by the "slumber times" (around 19:00 UTC, 3:00 am in China).  That "natural" price is  suposedly masked during daytime by the large swings that result from intense trading.   Moreover, the model assumes that the "natural" price is determined less by trading than by other "physical" factors that vary slowly with time -- such as the amount of money available for trading at the exchange.

The trend analysis is therefore trying to determine the variation of those "physical" factors --- and not of the prices set by trading,  which, as observed above, appear to be largely random.


I would not call it "artificially inflated".  Since they charge no fees, we should expect that they have many more actively trading clients than other exchanges, and also that each client generates a lot more trade volume than a client would elsewhere.

I have seen many claims that their volume is "fake", but I have yet to see evidence of that.  Their volume data seems to be consistent with humans assisted by robots or scripts.

On the other hand, evidence fo fake volume at MtGOX and other sites are quite strong. For example, by the end of January MtGOX's volume was as low as 15 kBTC/day; some dumb robots, that worked steadily day and night, may have accounted for half of that.

It may not be a pleasant conclusion for non-Chinese bitcoiners, but it seems undeniable that bitcoin trading is now largely a Chinese thing; specifically, that the price of bitcoin is now largely determined by the Chinese traders at Huobi and OKCoin., and carried to other exchanges by arbitrage.

I am surprised that sources like Coindesk pay so little attention to Huobi and OKCoin -- or even try to hide their existence.  I found only one interview with Huobi's CEO -- and was on a general finance source, not in a bitcoin news site.  We have only vague hints about the number, demographic profile, and motivations of their clients.

Actually, the articles at bitcoin news sources seem to be uncritical copy-paste of press releases, and have very little hard statistics -- such as the number of active users of bitcoin, active traders at each exchange, etc.

Where have all the investigative journalists gone?

Ok lets say $46700 on stamp and goal is 100 coins but we never went down to 460 on stamp. So I guess 80 coins would be great. But that would mean we need to go down to $577. I think that seems impossible at the moment.

What do I have to search to find Tera? Who is this?

like Tera if youve ever seen his limit buy/sell structures.

imo you think its going down, so I advise putting in bids below market price going down by 10-20 $ at a time. You ultimately decide howmmany coins you want factor that in to figure how much of that 50k you need to spend to get to your target

So lets say you have 50K FIAT on stamp, how would you buy?

How is Gox still ~$300 with under 6 mil on the bid side? Baffling.

yup this is going to be very tricky for those who are waiting on the sideline for some buying opportunity. better watch out or the train could leave without you, but i guess thats the game anyway.

but what if gox snaps back to 800 then 1000 while stamps goes down marginally only to end up exploding into 4 digits never to go back down again.

It's likely that there will be a small dip due to some people needing fiat for cashflow reasons, followed by a rise due to some restored confidence.

Why should we go down? Why do people always think that the people who bought cheap on gox will dump them immediately? most of them will wait until it's at 1000 again before they dump. I know i will.

I know the price is good but what if we really go down to 400 when gox withdraws work again? Then I will bite my ass that I bought at 630...

I would be happy to work for you, but for the next 12 weeks my appointment book is already filled.
I finally got hired by a big financial institute to do their "PR".

there 580 15K cheap coins right infront of you dude

How boring is it on stamp 

Give us some cheap coins man...

seriously are you paid for doing this?

if I get wealthy I contact you for spreading FUD in my interest

Because it was buried under all the troll-garbage on here, unfortunately.