There won't be a rise just because there is strong support at the bottom, there also has to be strong support for lift, but it aint there. Without lift the bottom will only weaken and weaken until it breaks.
Now this analysis I can deal with. In fact, you've described the reason why I have some fiat in reserve. There is a substantial likelihood of an impending final capitulation.
Regarding having Fiat in reserve, Are you saying that you have invested most of your liquid assets in BTC?
I know that there are some people who have put their life savings into bitcoin... but surely a risky strategy...
Personally, almost all of my liquid assets are in various forms of fiat.... save a relatively small percentage in BTC.
I am investing in BTC b/c I want to diversify some of my assets out of fiat (namely away from the dollar).
I am fairly bullish on BTC, but I only started investing in November 2013..., and I have been dollar cost averaging my BTC investment through the last 2.5 months attempting to buy more BTC during the dips and only investing a small percentage of my total investment portfolio into BTC - so even though my initial BTCs were bought at around $1,200, my average BTC buy price is currently at about $744.
Currently, I am holding... hoping to buy more BTC on Coinbase below $560.. if such a BTC price dip were to occur... and doing a tiny bit of trading on BTC-e (but I am NOT very good at timing daytrades. Therefore, I don't attempt too many big or risky trades - unless there seems to be some clear signal of the BTC price direction - which seems rare).
Nonetheless, my current prediction is that BTC is going to be in turmoil for the next couple of weeks waiting for more clear news from Gox - which Gox is likely to straggle along for another several months... and may be able to re-brand itself... possibly, like Silkroad 2 is attempting to do with its recent press release... I agree Gox seems to be a drag on the current bitcoin prices and causing uncertainty about the future of BTC... I do think that a transparent statement, such as the one provided by Silkroad 2, and a kind of outline of a forward plan.. that sounds reasonable, could help Gox to stay alive.
Yet, the Gox situation may cause developments for investors / customers to receive assurances that exchanges or similar enties are NOT going to run away with their bitcoins...