why is this happening? Is my reasoning wrong? It looks like a massive arbitrage opportunity.
It is that. Dollars on gox are definitely worth more than dollars anywhere else right now.
So no BTC withdrawls on Monday? :-(
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29651. (Read 26709128 times)
February 15, 2014, 11:34:25 PM
It is that. Dollars on gox are definitely worth more than dollars anywhere else right now.
So no BTC withdrawls on Monday? :-(
February 15, 2014, 11:32:44 PM
February 15, 2014, 11:31:41 PM
Ok, i´m turning bull now. That MtGox breakout convinced me that we are in a bull market right now.
My first step will be to transfer 50k $ to MtGox, to get some cheap coins while they last, after that i´m transferin
all my BTC to BTC-E and use it to go all in FTC , that 1700 BTC buy wall over there is proof enough that it will go to the moon.
End of the story will be that i´m even more rich in about 2 weeks, i´m lookin forward to it.
My first step will be to transfer 50k $ to MtGox, to get some cheap coins while they last, after that i´m transferin
all my BTC to BTC-E and use it to go all in FTC , that 1700 BTC buy wall over there is proof enough that it will go to the moon.
End of the story will be that i´m even more rich in about 2 weeks, i´m lookin forward to it.
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This terminal will self destruct in 10, 9 , 8 .......
Fonzi trap?
February 15, 2014, 11:30:12 PM
why is this happening? Is my reasoning wrong? It looks like a massive arbitrage opportunity.
It is that. Dollars on gox are definitely worth more than dollars anywhere else right now. It's vastly more efficient to just deposit USD at gox, but that takes too long. Monday's news will change the pricing picture.
February 15, 2014, 11:28:59 PM
Will we break 300$ in the next hours? This is so funny to watch, i wish it was real market activity.
What is more funny is whoever bought 3800 BTC up to $500+ and then price drops to $340 lol
about 10000 have been sold again since the market buy. None of this is real.
Nobody would make any real trades like that. It´s a slapstick business simulation game.
Starring Mark Karpeles as Leslie Nielsen.
February 15, 2014, 11:28:57 PM
Looks like Stamp and others are gradually becoming less affected by movements on Gox. Interesting.
the more I look at the gox action.. the more i'm convinced, all people are buying and selling is a database price. someone inside at gox is selling coins that don't exist in attempt to move the other exchanges. while gox try to replenish their coin balance...
just a thought!
not a very clever thought, at that. it would be very expensive to sell bitcoins at half off the market price. instead, they would be buying coins, not too quickly, but continuously, at these levels, and selling them on other exchanges. this would have the effect of pushing down the prices on other exchanges. or if they were really clever, they'd just be buying them cheaply on gox, and freezing them until summer.
February 15, 2014, 11:28:41 PM
According to my calculations there is either a serious issue with the Bitcoinbuilder.com website OR MtGox dollars are actually worth more than regular dollars (which is a sharp contrast from the previous situation).
Bitcoinbuilder is valuing MtGox BTC at 0.8 BTC -- or a ratio of 0.8.
The exchange rate is valuing MtGox BTC at 360/640 - 0.5625.
This means that MtGox US dollars are worth 0.8/ 0.5625 = 1.42 real dollars.
Now in practice it is slightly lower as there is a 2% fee on Bitcoinbuilder. But otherwise, why is this happening? Is my reasoning wrong? It looks like a massive arbitrage opportunity.
Bitcoinbuilder is valuing MtGox BTC at 0.8 BTC -- or a ratio of 0.8.
The exchange rate is valuing MtGox BTC at 360/640 - 0.5625.
This means that MtGox US dollars are worth 0.8/ 0.5625 = 1.42 real dollars.
Now in practice it is slightly lower as there is a 2% fee on Bitcoinbuilder. But otherwise, why is this happening? Is my reasoning wrong? It looks like a massive arbitrage opportunity.
February 15, 2014, 11:27:41 PM
If it results in the loss of hundreds of millions in market value I'm going with "bug".
How about a feature that was exploited in order to make someone rich?
February 15, 2014, 11:25:58 PM
Will we break 300$ in the next hours? This is so funny to watch, i wish it was real market activity.
What is more funny is whoever bought 3800 BTC up to $500+ and then price drops to $340 lol
February 15, 2014, 11:24:59 PM
Will we break 300$ in the next hours? This is so funny to watch, i wish it was real market activity.
February 15, 2014, 11:22:49 PM
If it results in the loss of hundreds of millions in market value I'm going with "bug".
February 15, 2014, 11:22:16 PM
Looks like Stamp and others are gradually becoming less affected by movements on Gox. Interesting.
the more I look at the gox action.. the more i'm convinced, all people are buying and selling is a database price. someone inside at gox is selling coins that don't exist in attempt to move the other exchanges. while gox try to replenish their coin balance...
just a thought!
February 15, 2014, 11:20:10 PM
Saying that malleability is an issue is no different than saying that buggy code is an issue. It's an issue if you let it become an issue.
There is a million ways to fuck something up no matter how many rules you put into place. Besides, at what point do rules become something that are meant to be broken.
The simple fact is that GOX either mistakenly or purposely ran buggy code that allowed some people to get rich at the expense of some unlucky bag-holders.
Instead of talking about malleability issues people should be asking where the fuck is my money period.
There is a million ways to fuck something up no matter how many rules you put into place. Besides, at what point do rules become something that are meant to be broken.
The simple fact is that GOX either mistakenly or purposely ran buggy code that allowed some people to get rich at the expense of some unlucky bag-holders.
Instead of talking about malleability issues people should be asking where the fuck is my money period.
A minor nit but transaction malleability was not a bug; it was a documented yet debatably undesirable feature of the Bitcoin design. I can't really argue with the rest of it.
Anyone that has written software knows that there can be a fine line between bugs and features. It all comes down to whether you let it exist or not.
February 15, 2014, 11:09:10 PM
Ok, i´m turning bull now. That MtGox breakout convinced me that we are in a bull market right now.
My first step will be to transfer 50k $ to MtGox, to get some cheap coins while they last, after that i´m transferin
all my BTC to BTC-E and use it to go all in FTC , that 1700 BTC buy wall over there is proof enough that it will go to the moon.
End of the story will be that i´m even more rich in about 2 weeks, i´m lookin forward to it.
My first step will be to transfer 50k $ to MtGox, to get some cheap coins while they last, after that i´m transferin
all my BTC to BTC-E and use it to go all in FTC , that 1700 BTC buy wall over there is proof enough that it will go to the moon.
End of the story will be that i´m even more rich in about 2 weeks, i´m lookin forward to it.
February 15, 2014, 11:04:28 PM
"Balaji Srinivasan at Startup School 2013" is a glimpse of the future, in my opinion. This is relevant to your post. I hope you take the time to watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A
Thanks, quite interesting.
February 15, 2014, 11:03:41 PM
wow dat false alert on Gox... some people reacted a little bit too much considering dat hoax on reddit. FOOLS 
February 15, 2014, 11:03:02 PM
February 15, 2014, 10:59:25 PM
Careful with Kraken, they only allow BTC deposit and withdrawal from the U.S. no fiat yet. I like what they have to offer, but they are not there yet.
Is that a US-specific? I've used them to SEPA deposit Euros and withdrew BTC all on the same day twice this week.
Yes, euros work great, but they are still working on regulation for the US.
February 15, 2014, 10:58:19 PM
Jorge
May I respectfully suggest your prediction will be right (but for the wrong reason).
The market is currently balanced and awaiting Monday's Mt Gox announcement which will likely occur at 7pm Japan time. Your prediction occurs before then accordingly it is reasonable to anticipate that the market will continue to walk the current tightrope until an announcement is made at which point it will go ballistic depending on how the market takes the announcement. Please note I do not refer to what the announcement says as its content and the market reaction are quite often two different things.
May I respectfully suggest your prediction will be right (but for the wrong reason).
The market is currently balanced and awaiting Monday's Mt Gox announcement which will likely occur at 7pm Japan time. Your prediction occurs before then accordingly it is reasonable to anticipate that the market will continue to walk the current tightrope until an announcement is made at which point it will go ballistic depending on how the market takes the announcement. Please note I do not refer to what the announcement says as its content and the market reaction are quite often two different things.
Thanks for your thoughts. I find your analysis plausible. We saw what happened last Monday.
The only claim that the Slumber Method makes is that 19:00 UTC is the best time to use when trying to infer the general multi-day trend, if it exists. It can't help when there is no such trend.
I believe that the market itself cannot remember what it did more than a couple of hours ago; so I assume that any multi-day trend must be driven by some external variable. As I discussed before, I saw some clear trends over the last two weeks, which I would ascribe to changes in the total amount of CNY that people are confortable to leave in the exchange overnight. That amount and the price were constant during the holiday week, then started to decay exponentially towards some limit as the banks opened. The (First?) Karpeles Catastrophe presumably caused a sudden lump exodus, after which the decaying trend continued. Then the swings of the past two days may have brought some investors back to the game, hence the new trend starting higher and flat.
We will see.
February 15, 2014, 10:42:02 PM
Saying that malleability is an issue is no different than saying that buggy code is an issue. It's an issue if you let it become an issue.
There is a million ways to fuck something up no matter how many rules you put into place. Besides, at what point do rules become something that are meant to be broken.
The simple fact is that GOX either mistakenly or purposely ran buggy code that allowed some people to get rich at the expense of some unlucky bag-holders.
Instead of talking about malleability issues people should be asking where the fuck is my money period.
There is a million ways to fuck something up no matter how many rules you put into place. Besides, at what point do rules become something that are meant to be broken.
The simple fact is that GOX either mistakenly or purposely ran buggy code that allowed some people to get rich at the expense of some unlucky bag-holders.
Instead of talking about malleability issues people should be asking where the fuck is my money period.
A minor nit but transaction malleability was not a bug; it was a documented yet debatably undesirable feature of the Bitcoin design. I can't really argue with the rest of it.
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