Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29655. (Read 26708814 times)

Yes it is interesting and I think that we will see the correlation stick for some time and also the trend increase to continue to grow with higer peaks as the network effect takes effect..and as adoption and interest and users and new and awareness grows, along with the legal situaiton and the ecosystem, then the peaks will get higher both in trend charts user numbers and eventually... price..  

I imagine the figures are not complete. Yes the could be downloading client locally as could people in the US not sure exactly how these figures
are complied either.

No to downloading a client to trade on Huboi

And as to what you imagine the average Chinese bitcoin user to be ... I think that whilst the demographic you suggest does exist- there will be a large number of users that are in Beijing and in Shangahi on the bund in their offices, multilingual , affluent  and very interested/invested in Bitcoin and that is not me guessing... I know..and I also know a lot of UK expats living in China that also are interested in Bitcoin.

I am curious, in a few months when Lawsy and co release their regs, and maybe offer Bitlicense, and if it does not stifle Bitcoin, which at the moment it looks and sound as if they are going to go light touch... and then a large well established set of services and exchanges set up
and it gets marketing pushes from various sources.. and even maybe makes it to the superbowl ads one day .. or some such..
would you reconsider your point of view then?

Also you mention Paypal, well the guy behind Paypal is an interesting chap.. do you know anything about him and the Paypal story?

Explanation

Are you claiming people need to install the client in order to buy Bitcoins on Huobi and keep them there?  Since when?

Well, I welcome Jorge to the community but I ask that if he is going to be a Bitcoin skeptic, in the academic sense, that he back it up with data and or hard facts rather than with generalizations or reductive arguments.

Wow this is nice I like it!

You are allowed to sell virtual currency on eBay Classifieds now. No auction yet. So in this format it's safe to assume they will be allowing PayPal payment. No idea how this will be enforced. Of course accepting PayPal has its own risks.

It's probably more because it's his niche that made him being interested to see what's going on.

I´m going to sleep now, i switched my dumping bot "Billy" on Gox back on to entertain you while i´m absent. Bye

Yes, but the fact that he's here says something

Jorge, do you have a wallet set up? I use Electrum for small amounts as it's super easy and lightweight. I'm sure some of us would throw a few cents your way to play with, if only to promote Ivy League academic research!

Welcome, to answer your question: Bitcoin is a terrible investment!

Well, kinda, sorta....in a highly contextual way. In a world where safe to moderately risky investments only bring you double digit percentage returns(if even), Bitcoin is a highly volatile unknown, unperfected vehicle which hasn't even left beta yet, in other words it can never be an investment until both the software/price reach maturity and relative stability. But if you're willing to risk money you can afford to lose, why not partake, it's a pity that earnest people have taken it on themselves to invest their farm in bitcoin because it will mean a lot of pain should it come to fail.

Also, given that it's slow, and that there are emerging competitors, the safest way to assess it is to see it as a interface bus that is used on the basis of knowledge and reliability, not necessarily the best, but definitely the best known.

Given your credentials, although it's nice to have you here, you would really do well to take up your discussions with bitcoin senior devs who will be more than happy to see another senior member of the computer science community take interest. I hope you enjoy this fascinating new technology and it's implications for century old financial practices.

No offense intended but you seem to have a very tenuous grasp on how Bitcoin works. Before you start making grand predictions about it's future maybe you should spend some more time educating yourself about its inner workings.

Thanks for the links.  The peaks seem to match significnt changes in price and the growth of the "market".


Interesting too. 

Are those numbers complete (e.g. could the Chinese be downloading the software from a local source not counted in those graphs?)

My picture of the typical Huobi client is a low or middle-class person, who does not understand English, has no programming knowledge, and keeps his bitcoins in his Huobi account.  He cannot use bitcoins to pay for things in China and does not usually travel outside the country.  Would he need to download the software and/or create a private wallet in order to open an account at Huobi?

Exact,y that's why I wrote on page before that he is teacher and they are not really exciting ones.

They tend to play on safe, and there's no place for that in crypto at this moment. You either risk hard and make it big, or you fail trying

I see your point. but as a community, we keep growing. at some point bitcoin will change from a niche to a real threat...  After time the general population will be educated to the benefits and in my opinion, given the option, the ability and knowing the facts, most people would prefer to use bitcoin.

having said that... the short term future is not so great, and the recent problems, are not going away overnight.

The academic mind tends to approach every problem from a point of skepticism.

This is partly due to formal training and partly due to the politics of maintaining the image of an 'academic.'

Vision and foresight to see the future coming require a completely different disposition and set of skills.

Let the academics discuss why Bitcoin is going to fail, and then watch the tide of opinion slowly turn as it becomes the reality of our shared future. History is filled with such examples.

Look behind, they didn't wait the price to jump on bitcoin..
The numbers is bigger but as the random joe numbers

You know you're absolutely right. I don't think anyone in their right mind doubts that digital currencies have an uphill battle.

I was in total agreement with you last year, but I invested anyway because I believed in the idea, and have had this nagging sensation in the back of my brain ever since I didn't buy up domain names when I was 16. I even had the idea then, but got sidetracked with college, music, girls... you know Bitcoin brought me right back to that "oh shit" moment when I was learning about the internet in its early days.

After using Bitcoin, one realizes that it's so far better than the traditional system that it may just win by default. It's an extraordinary piece of technology that's driven by a huge need for change, not just in the way we transfer value, but in the political arena where central banking has gotten out of hand.

I do not intend the term as negative.  But the use of bitcoins for speculation or store of value is a side effect that is not strictly necessary for its goal (cheap safe etc. payment via internet) and may be a an obstacle to it.

I have yet to see a convincing model (with numbers) of the bitcoin economy in the bright future; much less how we can get from here to there without being steamrolled along the way by banks, governments, and other competitors like Apple and PayPal. (I read somewhere that PayPal is already blocking any payment related to bitcoin.)

The fast increase in value, for example, seems to have attracted a lot of undesriable players (greedy speculators, shady investors, incompetent businessmen, scammers...) which are already harming the project's image.

@JorgeStolfi

I'll ask you the same question I've asked a few times before, when people seem particularly negative about the prospects of Bitcoin. Here it goes:

You probably think of yourself as someone who, by and large, believes in/follows the empirical method, right? As in: you let external data dictate and change your models, not the other way around. Correct so far?

If so, under which circumstance would you conclude that you have been wrong?

Can you describe (not fully formalized and quantified, but approximately) what would qualify as:

a) a "success" of Bitcoin and

b) Bitcoin being a good investment.

Unless you're a dogmatist, that should be possible, right? To define, before the fact, the boundaries of your current assumptions/your model, and the point at which the new data requires that you adjust your assumptions/your model.

That's what I'm asking :)

BTC *it's aliveeee ~ looks like we are heading back uP^ ---> run shorty runnnnn ;-) LOL