Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30023. (Read 26709943 times)

Billyjoeallen has made many helpful and insightful contributions here.  People will be successful as bitcoin consultants and it would give me pleasure to see our own forum members succeed.


MatTheCat, you haven't answered my question from last night:

Explanation

however, bears at that time would have asserted that the downtrend began considerably earlier than the june 20th suspension. as evidenced by the chart.

Noch ein Doppelpost.

A Bitcoin Consultant!?

But you are a Bitcoin Nutter and since I have became aware of you, you have been nothing but wrong.

I wish you all the best on your new venture but I think I shall pass on your services thankyou very much.


Ah, that'll be the 200 day MA. Last two crashes, Bitcoin price eventually dipped below this line.

It is currently running in $300 - $400 range should Bitcoin pay it a visit in the next few weeks.

Ok, that makes sense. I wasn't really following the day-to-day news during that period. Diversifications of exchanges is a very good development IMHO because MtGox was such a bottleneck and potential single point of failure. The beauty of the free market is that every problem is a potential entrepreneurial opportunity. Mark's incompetence as a CEO actually ended up helping the industry.

I can't find the coin cheapness indacator on bitcoinwisdom??

where can I find a place that charts this indacator?

It is the most accurate indacator for deciding when to buy and sell that I have ever seen!

During months of stagnation I do pretty much the same as usual. mine coins, hoard 90% and send the rest to the exchange for speculation.

The only thing that changes is that I tend to sell more coins during these times in order to keep my exchange account roughly balanced so that I'm ready for the eventual move to either side...

Well, at least it gives them someone to point fingers at.  Bobby Lee said. . . 

PS. Besides the fat tails for small n, there is another conspicuous feature of the data that the log-Brownian model does not capture.

Looking at a plot of the increments Z(i+1)-Z(i) as a function of i, it seems evident that the the typical magnitude of the increments changes markedly but slowly over a time scale of several hours.   That is, there are periods when the increments are quite large, other periods when they are quite small; even though in both cases they seem to be equally random and independent.  (These slow  variations in the standard deviation may perhaps account for the long tails of the global distribution).

The periods when the increments are larger seem to correlate (not surprisingly) with the periods when the trade volume per hour is larger.   Thus the following model may be more acurate:

  Z(i+1) + Z(i) + B*V(i)*RAND(i)

where V(i) is the trade volume in the sampling interval i, and B is another constant (that measures how much the price is disturbed, in the rms average sense, whenever one BTC gets traded).  Note that if the volumes V(i) are nearly constant then this is the same as the simpler model, with C = B*V(i).

If this hunch is correct, then one should perhaps describe the price changes in terms of a "volume clock", instead of the usual time clock.

That is, let's define the "accumulated volume" as the total amount of BTC traded between some fixed reference time in the past to each subsequent time.  Let's write Q(v) for the price when the accumulated is v, and let Y(v) be log_10(Q(v)).  Then the log-Brownian model in "volume clock" predicts that

  Y(v+w) = Y(v) + E*sqrt(w)*RAND(v,w)

where E is a constant, and RAND(v,w) are random variables (not independent) with zero-mean, unit-variance Gaussian distribution.

This model may yield tighter confidence intervals for the future price Q(v+w).  However, it does not predict the price range after n hours in the future, but rather after an additional w bitcoins will have been traded.   

I wonder about that dip too. It may be hodlers who were forced to sell for cash flow reasons even though they believed the price was going to go up or remain stable.  This worries me a little bit, because I am a medium-sized hodler with negative cash flow. There's a finite amount of time I can hodle before I start to slowly drain my portfolio, and I don't think I'm alone.  Fortunately, I keep getting zero APR credit card applications in the mail, so chances are I can hodl out for over a year or two if necessary-but I'm not selling this time because I can always get a second job if I have to.

My guess is right now, there is more pressure on the bears in short positions who will slowly start to close out their short positions if the price continues to go sideways.

Actually, there's no mystery about what caused that dip -- Gox officially suspended withdrawals on June 20th. The market began dropping immediately on the news as people speculated that Gox was going under. The price bottomed out at 66, bounced back at about the same rate it had fallen, then resumed the pre-news trend of meandering around 100 before ultimately heading upward and into the November rally.

Looking forward to RSVP'ing my invitation!  

i think there is more to the story of past price movement than people selling off after the Dec 5 announcement.

also, i can't imagine that bobby lee's statement instills much confidence. "i am confident that we are not illegal" LOL...

I would think it could encourage those that sold after the "announcement" that BTC was a "safe" investment again if BTC China was now accepting deposits again.  I think there is a psychological component to people buying and selling.   But we will see.  I would think it couldn't hurt for there to be another exchange open.

i'm not sure we will see much of an uptick in btcchina volume. they'd have to take it back from huobi, who is charging no fees. i don't see maker taker changing the equation.

Don't they know New Years Day was 30 days ago!?    

Because it's a holiday there, banks are closed so also no deposits coming in right now.

Basically, I just tell people what bitcoin is, correct misconceptions, how it works and what their options are. My focus is more on merchants than investor/speculators, because it's merchant adoption that will be the catalyst for mainstream adoption.

Sorry this is off topic, but supposedly BTC China is taking deposits again.  Why is there no increase in volume on their site (besides the short lived Bot exchange yesterday)?