Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30050. (Read 26709945 times)

The US governement does not care about the FBI's bitcoins - it certainly would not take them into account when considering a ban on Bitcoin.

You say "not that much of a gamble", but how do you think the US government and TBTF banks will react when they inevitably come to the conclusion that Bitcoin is not something they can control? What happens when the IRS realises FATCA and other tax rules and collection policies are basically impotent when it comes to Bitcoin? Are you so sure they will sit back and do nothing?

A ban on Bitcoin in the US would be a tragedy, no doubt, but it would not necessarily surprise me. If the US acts, Europe will too. Russia, India and China are already half way there.

(For the record: still long Bitcoin, still holding some myself, still have BTC tied up in BTC denominated investments, etc)

Haha...thanks 

...and Bitcoin holders in the rest of the world would carry on using Bitcoins, for the same reasons they got Bitcoins in the first place..

Get rid of your tin cool hat.

I actually agree 1000% with your outlook.  The only thing that worries me is if it is actually Bitcoin itself with the marketshare projected 24-36 months out.  I've seen many posts of people who say that the the statements from the Congressional and NY State hearings are bullish because the chairmen have made comments that they see the value in Bitcoin.  But my fear is that they see the value in the blockchain technology, not Bitcoin literally.  

Just think about it: the US government (and all governments, for that matter) allow the Bitcoin community to spend it's blood, sweat and tears working out the bugs of a distributed ledger to record financial transactions and work to make the public somewhat comfortable with transferring money through such a system.  Once it becomes fairly polished, the government launches their own blockchain and USDollarCoin.  They empower existing banks to function as exchanges from fiat to USDollarCoin and ban any entity such as businesses from transacting in Bitcoin.  They can now issue their currency electronically without incurring the actual costs of printing paper money and supporting the infrastructure in distributing the physical cash.

It really is a regulator's wet dream, because right now, the government has no real visibility on what happens during cash or credit card sales on the transactional level, but once they have their own blockchain, they can trace the movement of every little penny within the system.

Let me head off the "But that defeats the decentralized benefit of Bitcoin" argument by offering this: 95% of the population can give two sh!ts about decentralization.  They will just do what the government tells them to do.

Am I the only one who sees this scenario as a real threat?  If so, I need to get rid of my tinfoil hat.

Question is: what happens next ? Any of you got a crystal ball ?

I think this is one of the longer periods we have seen price stability in awhile. 2 weeks in bitcoin time is like 2 months in real time (as far as how quickly things usually move)

Yes. All this and the US will not ban bitcoin.

Not that much of a gamble. If the USG bans bitcoin, the FBI will have to destroy their private keys and that would be very bullish. It would still be traded here, just underground. An outright ban is very unlikely, even if regulation tightens to the point of scaring institutional investors and certain whales off. I think that is unlikely as well. What's more likely is that mining difficulty will increase substantially due to some new hardware coming on line and the price will adjust up accordingly. More merchants will come online. QE will continue or even increase, one or more national currencies will hyperinflate, new applications for the blockchain will be developed, client software and apps will be released, and we'll all wish we bought more of those overvalued bitcoins.

I haven't watched the entire panel yet but did they ask anything about what happens when EC is broken?

It is absolutely beyond most realms of possibilities at this point.

Do you live in the US? It doesn't matter I suppose given how many people here are paranoid about our government, but the truth is the US doesn't go around banning technologies. And there is no indication they will ban bitcoin. They aren't banning gay marriage. They aren't banning bitcoin. The NY regulators lead these type of financial decisions in the US. And the hearings made it clear they will support bitcoin and bitcoin innovation. The US takes pride in being world leaders and bitcoin is no different.

It's happening. It's no longer if. It's when.

To be fair, you're taking a bet that e.g. the US government won't ban the use of Bitcoin in the US. Look at India and China, for example. Bans can be quite effective. If the US government banned Bitcoin tomorrow - not beyond the realm of possibility given the US Treasury Secretary's recent remarks and the difficulties regulators and the IRS will have addressing Bitcoin - it simply will not have the chance to grow to the size you want it to be.

I'm long Bitcoin too, but it's a gamble nonetheless.

i agree that it has to be 50k+ in 3 years

its basic human psychology pretty much. its just hard to imagine

Look. As Allaire pointed out, the elephant in the room is that for bitcoin to have the liquidity to be a world trade and/or retail currency it need to be 10x50 times bigger than it is now. As more and more big players get involved in the Eco system - once banks and US exchanges get involved, the price will be forced higher because it simply has to be to function on a large scale.

6 months from now? I don't know. Somewhere between 450-2000.

But in the next 24-36 months, bitcoin is somewhere between 10k-50k. It simply has to be. The scale at which the entities getting involved now operate scale wise, bitcoin will be forced there. And 17 year olds that mined this useless Internet money will have their minds blown.

Kid, you can learn from people like me or you can learn the hard way. It's your choice. An ego is an extremely expensive luxury to maintain. Fiat is a terrible store of value but it's liquid, so if you need to keep some around to maximize your options, fine. Just remember most people work for their money but smart people let their money work for them.

Before you attack me, I want to be clear that i'm a long-term bull, but if you are criticizing bears for a projected price less than what it is now, you must have a valuation figured out.  Otherwise, you can be accused of the same guessing of valuation you accuse the bears of doing.  So, what did you figure a fair-market price of BTC should be now?  What about 6 months from now?

That's close to MY magic number, but not everybody's. I try to stabilize prices by buying BTC on the way down and selling it on the way up to reduce volatility. Making money is just how I keep score on how good I am doing.  It's the opposite strategy of the momentum traders and it can be very profitable if you buy and sell the right amounts at the right times. and they haven't stopped spending. They've slowed down. We're aiming at moving targets.

Well look. Perhaps you come from wealth and playing with magical Internet money was a cool hobby. But if not and you're smart enough to realize some people on here are more experienced than you, you just might want to pay attention to something other than your fairly unseasoned assumptions about this magical money.

Look, it's true though. Long term bears almost to a (wo)man make the mistake of thinking they know what the value of bitcoin is. I could have understood that even a year ago. But today? With what's going on now with bitcoins fundamentals? If someone can't see it now, I have no sympathy for them, especially if they were diligent enough to find this subforum.