i've been selling coins.
risk management....
but i still very bullish on the future.
Anyone in bitcoin a few years ago is rich now. So...
Anyone in bitcoin now will be rich in a few years. no worries
Will anyone who buys bitcoin in a few years be rich in another few years? I'm curious as to how long this recurisve logic will go on. Will bitcoin expand infinitely and receive massive adoption by aliens in distant galaxies?
Nobody knows exactly, but I have an idea. Bitcoin, as our friend Mr. Antonopolis likes to say, is not just money for the internet. Bitcoin is the internet of money. Bitcoin will follow the technology adoption S curve along a similar time frame as the internet itself was adopted. this means over four years or so before the adoption rate slows to close to linear from the logarithmic. we have about a million users in the U.S. now and I estimate this will grow to about 300 million in five years, which by that time will be about 75% of the US population. Of course this is global, so total adoption at the logarithmic (or super logarithmic) rate may be longer or shorter.
1 million people this year
5 million next year
25 million the year after that
125 million In 2017,
and then in 2018, the second elbow- but this is for any adoption.
The amount of use by each individual will increase on average over that time as well. For example, I first bought a home computer in 1992 and connected to the internet in '93. Now I have two desktops, two laptops, a netbook and a smart phone. Then I connected to the 'net for less than an hour a day and now I'm wired in for about twelve hours on average. Bitcoin use and value can increase for over a decade at geometrical rates without reaching saturation. Doesn't mean it will, but it might.
This is a very rough prediction. (plus or minus 200%)