Speechless...
LOL
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30382. (Read 26713027 times)
January 11, 2014, 06:34:12 PM
January 11, 2014, 06:33:50 PM
Well if Huobi gets shut down then all bets are off, and this might be all that bears have going for them right now.
qft
January 11, 2014, 06:32:52 PM
January 11, 2014, 06:26:58 PM
Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:
These type of charts need log-scale or something similar. I would be much more interested in knowing what the average yearly % increase in monetary supply is, than a chart that says "omfg, look how high this goes".agreed.
January 11, 2014, 06:24:08 PM
Well if Huobi gets shut down then all bets are off, and this might be all that bears have going for them right now.
January 11, 2014, 06:23:18 PM
Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:
Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.
Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.
Lol, that article is a hoot. For instance:
Quote
Or, rather, all the money that's been created is sequestered from the actual economy and may as well not exist for most purposes.
That chart shows the monetary base expansion under TARP and QE1,2,3. The money is used to buy gov't bonds or other financial assets. That is the official claim from the Fed. Either the Fed is lying or the author is an idiot. If the author is correct, the Fed is lying. In this case, the money is probably parked in the banks waiting to cover a massive, anticipated run on bank accounts. Chances are, however, that the author is a moron and the money is simply being injected into the world economy at some unknown rate.
Even if the FED is lying and the author is an idiot the US doesn't appear to head into an area of hyperinflation.
And actually there is an article which explains what the FED actually think it is doing, it's too complicated for me but since you claim to know all about economics perhaps you get something out of it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf
Inflation is inevitable once that money fully enters into circulation. Precisely where that money went and what it's being used for is not a matter of public knowledge. But you can bet that it won't just sit somewhere. All the goldbugs are saying is "They created a tremendous amount of money over a very short period and it will eventually be used. The question is when and how."
I think I'm not understanding this... doesn't that article state that the bulk of the money (difference between red and blue line) is parked at the fed as "excess reserves"? Does the fed use it for something or does it just sit there? If it just sits there it seems to indeed be a matter of public knowledge, no?
The Fed is just helping the banks rebuild and strengthen their balance sheets in line with Basel 3
January 11, 2014, 06:21:38 PM
I have so much fiat 
Patience!All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips.
You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?
I dont buy it.
but i have to admit i'm scared.
We could go higher, just managing risk. Still don't think we will retest highs on this move. Lower lows -- lower than $859 Gox/$765 Stamp? Probably yes, not directly, though.
If we go back to October when this began around $200, we have gained about $10 or so on average a day on Stamp. I think this might be a pretty close assessment of the new amount of average daily fiat that has come into the market. The bid sums grow every week. For all the markets ups and downs I would not be surprised if we keep close to this average going forward for a while.
January 11, 2014, 06:18:59 PM
Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:
These type of charts need log-scale or something similar. I would be much more interested in knowing what the average yearly % increase in monetary supply is, than a chart that says "omfg, look how high this goes". January 11, 2014, 06:16:23 PM
The long-term chart shows even more that fiat is suffering from each round of QE just as a heroin addict suffers each time he rides the dragon.
Yellen is a raving money-printer. No improvement in sight.
[snip]
Yellen is a raving money-printer. No improvement in sight.
[snip]
no doubt you gonna show up parroting the same ramblings debunked in the previous post.
January 11, 2014, 06:15:46 PM
I have so much fiat
Patience!All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips.
You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?
I dont buy it.
but i have to admit i'm scared.
We could go higher, just managing risk. Still don't think we will retest highs on this move. Lower lows -- lower than $859 Gox/$765 Stamp? Probably yes, not directly, though.
January 11, 2014, 06:15:07 PM
It seems to me this market, which has broken every trendline except, arguably the original one back in October (although thats a huge stretch), has now 2 choices.
Either it doesn't break last weeks highs, and in this case it continues a downtrend and perhaps another capitulation,
Or it goes to ATHs.
Last weeks highs are pretty much the final major resistance before the ATHs. I just don't think its likely we go above last week and stall out before getting to the ATHs.
Either it doesn't break last weeks highs, and in this case it continues a downtrend and perhaps another capitulation,
Or it goes to ATHs.
Last weeks highs are pretty much the final major resistance before the ATHs. I just don't think its likely we go above last week and stall out before getting to the ATHs.
January 11, 2014, 06:10:17 PM
Even if the FED is lying and the author is an idiot the US doesn't appear to head into an area of hyperinflation.
And actually there is an article which explains what the FED actually think it is doing, it's too complicated for me but since you claim to know all about economics perhaps you get something out of it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf
And actually there is an article which explains what the FED actually think it is doing, it's too complicated for me but since you claim to know all about economics perhaps you get something out of it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf
Inflation is inevitable once that money fully enters into circulation. Precisely where that money went and what it's being used for is not a matter of public knowledge. But you can bet that it won't just sit somewhere. All the goldbugs are saying is "They created a tremendous amount of money over a very short period and it will eventually be used. The question is when and how."
The question is will you be around by then? And the point is, yes exactly it just sits somewhere, just the FED pays interest on it, just like the bank pay the fed on another part of their funds.
They can regulate how much interest they pay and as such better adjust liquidity for inter-bank loans.
January 11, 2014, 06:09:35 PM
I have so much fiat
Patience!All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips.
What is your buy-in point?
January 11, 2014, 06:08:38 PM
I have so much fiat
Patience!All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips.
You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?
I dont buy it.
but i have to admit i'm scared.
You once said to me it takes insight and courage to become a bear (or something along those lines). Maybe same is true for becoming a bull?
January 11, 2014, 06:07:00 PM
Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:
Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.
Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.
Lol, that article is a hoot. For instance:
Quote
Or, rather, all the money that's been created is sequestered from the actual economy and may as well not exist for most purposes.
That chart shows the monetary base expansion under TARP and QE1,2,3. The money is used to buy gov't bonds or other financial assets. That is the official claim from the Fed. Either the Fed is lying or the author is an idiot. If the author is correct, the Fed is lying. In this case, the money is probably parked in the banks waiting to cover a massive, anticipated run on bank accounts. Chances are, however, that the author is a moron and the money is simply being injected into the world economy at some unknown rate.
Even if the FED is lying and the author is an idiot the US doesn't appear to head into an area of hyperinflation.
And actually there is an article which explains what the FED actually think it is doing, it's too complicated for me but since you claim to know all about economics perhaps you get something out of it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf
Inflation is inevitable once that money fully enters into circulation. Precisely where that money went and what it's being used for is not a matter of public knowledge. But you can bet that it won't just sit somewhere. All the goldbugs are saying is "They created a tremendous amount of money over a very short period and it will eventually be used. The question is when and how."
I think I'm not understanding this... doesn't that article state that the bulk of the money (difference between red and blue line) is parked at the fed as "excess reserves"? Does the fed use it for something or does it just sit there? If it just sits there it seems to indeed be a matter of public knowledge, no?
January 11, 2014, 06:06:40 PM
Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:
...
Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.
...
Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.
The long-term chart shows even more that fiat is suffering from each round of QE just as a heroin addict suffers each time he rides the dragon.
Yellen is a raving money-printer. No improvement in sight.
January 11, 2014, 06:05:36 PM
CCMF!!!
January 11, 2014, 06:03:54 PM
I have so much fiat
Patience!All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips.
You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?
I dont buy it.
but i have to admit i'm scared.
January 11, 2014, 06:03:05 PM
By analyzing the transactions in the blockchain and matching them with a detailed table of BTC price over time, is it possible to figure out the amount of BTC that was last bought at a given price?
How would you know off-book transactions price? 
In all cases one would have to assume the price from some weighted mean of the prices at the main exchanges, at approximately that time (with proper currency/penalty conversion factors, e.g. 1.00 for Bitstamp, 0.90 for MtGox, etc.)
That table will be very crude of course. A statistic per wallet rather than per coin may be more interesting. That is, for each wallet we keep an "estimated USD balance", and for each transaction of N bitcoins into (or out of) it, we subtract (or add) N*P dollars, where P is the mean BTC/USD rate at the time. Then we can estimate the average price that was paid for the coins remaining in that wallet.
Doing that for all wallets may be prohibitive, but it would suffice to do it for a large enough sample.
Of course it would not say much about the position of persons, since a person may have many wallets; but even so it would be an interesting statistic.
January 11, 2014, 06:02:29 PM
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