Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31. (Read 26502285 times)

and today's big walls consist of 200 coins  

How do options dilute the scarcity more than other derivatives such as, say, futures/perps?


That might also be due to the fact that the market is larger by an order of magnitude or more now, so it takes proportionally more money to move it. It's right that the price is made at the margin, but the margin, too, is orders of magnitude larger.

Almost exactly 10 years ago... I watched the price of Bitcoin go up to over $1000.  I was camping over the US Thanksgiving with my family.

Today?  Bitcoin doing 2-3k swings like it's nothing. 

I think he forgot the biggest con, dilutes built in scarcity.

Thats why gains have slowed down by an order of magnitude.

*another inconvenient truth the plebs don't want to acknowledge because it goes against the narrative.

Options are a double edged sword. I can think of a few points.

PROS

- Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
- More appeal for institutions
- An instrument for living off one stash without selling (save some "unfortunate" unforeseen bullish run). Just sell out-of-the-money calls and pocket the premium. If it goes too much up... well you'll have to give up your precious at the strike price of the option you wrote, rather than at the higher market price at the time of expiry.

CONS

- More appeal for deep pocket sharks, who will have a relatively cheap manipulation tool. Cheaper than futures anyway.
- It makes btc less and less of a hodler centric asset, but this is already happening, so maybe it's just me.

There are no doubt many more issues I haven't though about yet, and a few more I can't even contemplate given the fact I'm in no way an expert.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and doesn't even look like it, I think.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I basically agree with much of your analysis about past, present and future blow off tops.

However, that haiku was merely intended to comment on the most recent price action. We passed through extremes from under 88k to over 93k, with wide and quick ups and downs often spanning over 4k. In 5 days, we had an ATH, and after that we significantly oscillated 6 times. That doesn't seem physiological post-ATH price dynamics to me. It smells like stop hunting. Likely just shaking the tree and clearing the road for big moves ahead.



Haikus are so terse
That's the point of short poetry
Being misunderstood







#haiku

Arkham Intelligence: Coins held by Fidelity and Coinbase Prime custody



*we don't have to care what he alluded to or hinted at, transparency is a feature.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Maybe this time my attack of your haiku contents will play out MOAR better in my favor.. .. so here "we" go..

I agree that if we end up getting some kind of a blow off top, then the downs and the UPs will end up extreme, and surely some would assert that our most recent move from $69k to $94k was such a magnitude that it requires a great correction, yet our "great correction" does not seem to be happening, and I am not sure if the non-happening of the great correction comes from MSTR buying $4billion-ish puts too much of a floor on the correction, or if something else might be happening in regards to our previous suppressed prices that happens to have had been coinciding with decently ongoing increased absorption of more and more of the bitcoin supply by the BTC spot ETFs and other various related contagions in regards to the sign that bitcoin needs to be added to the investment portfolios of normies, and extending to institutions and governments.

We seem to agree in that blow off tops are likely to not stop taking place, yet in the last year-ish, we have gone from $26k-ish to our current BTC prices, yet we have hardly had any significant or meaningful correction to really contribute towards an assessment of any kind of large and/or meaningful BTC price correction.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

seems not to age so well

Hopefully Buddy has enough digits.


So frequently, that is what happens with trading bitcoin, because the explosive move upward paralyzes a lot of folks and leaves them without many if any coins... .

With my own strategy, I was always selling such small amounts of BTC on the way up, yet when the BTC price goes shooting up and so many sell orders are executed, there can be feelings of having way too much cash, even if the amounts sold at each time was relatively small amounts.... part of the reason that I frequently suggest to not sell any BTC at all unless you know that you have enough or more than enough, since there should be no expectation to be able to buy back sold coins at a lower price.

It is a tough balance because also some people prematurely conclude that they have enough coins or more than enough coins.. and even I am not completely innocent of such errors in my thinking or ways of framing my own BTC holdings, my practices and why I am doing what I am doing (and the ways that I am doing what I trying to do).


Historically he had been accused of ONLY holding all the keys at Coinbase, and then he hinted at having several custodians, so it seems that his custodial solutions are not very clear - though maybe I am missing any further disclosures that he had made in more recent times - since I would speculate that anyone investing in his various bitcoin accumulation (and HODL forever) strategies would want to have some assurance that he is not going to end up losing the coins.


To date, Saylor has not been much of a vocal advocate of NYKNYC, and he has been greatly criticized for making statements to the contrary, including criticizing cryptobros who insist on holding their own keys.. including that he had to walk back some of the levels of the harshness of his statements that seemed to overly criticize those advocating self-custody.

It is possible that Saylor might come around on this self-custody point (especially since a lot, if not all of bitcoin's power comes from abilities to self-custody it), yet it is a bit of a problematic area with Saylor, his practices and what he seems to be advocating, at least up until recently.

I agree with you that it would be quite powerful if Saylor were to lose access to a big chunk of coins...probably contributing to some turbulence in the BTC markets too, depending on how it plays out, even though as we realize positive side effects of taking coins off of the market does increase the value of the coins actually held by others... Saylor knows about that, since he also talked about dying with his coins... though he would not be able to die with MSTR's coins unless there were flaws in their custodial arrangement in which ONLY he had the keys.

Reminds me of a bit of a joke and it would be funny if Saylor was giving some presentation and then mentioned that he had all of his coins on a ledger that was dangling on his neck (and you know how so many bitcoiners don't have very good impressions of the security of ledgers - but also the OPsec would be a strange sight too).. or if he said that he had all of the seed words memorized.. would he use 12 words or 24 words?  He's got a big brain, so he could probably handle 24 words, and scatter them through at random points in his various presentations... 331,200 BTC hidden in plain sight.   


Oh yeah, I now remember some of the rumors of MSTR coins being held with Fidelity too, and yeah there are way more obstacles to self-custody with public companies and other kinds of fiduciaries like pension plans, financial advisors, trust administrators, and some others.


It seems to me that Simon Dixon has a lot of good perceptions and takes in regards to the various seemingly contradictory financial and/or political relations (and how they relate to bitcoin), and fairly regularly, he goes over those kinds of matters in several of his Bitcoin Hardtalk podcast episodes.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WIr_lD3l9Fg

Go up, scrape the sky
Fall back down and stir the mud
Liquidity hunt







#haiku

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

33 years ago, one of the biggest battles in Europe after World War II ended. The small town of Vukovar in the east of Croatia, with less than 2000 poorly armed defenders, managed to hold off an army of 36 000+ Serbian butchers for 87 days. The Serbian army broke its teeth there and thus enabled the rest of Croatia to arm itself (despite the sanctions) and eventually win the war of liberation.

The war crimes committed by the Serbian butchers after they conquered the city are monstrous, even today victims are being dug up from mass graves and thousands are missing. However, today Vukovar (Croatian Alamo) is a place that is a symbol of resistance and is visited by people from all over the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vukovar

For he who has eyes to see.  It amazes me how few people still do not see it even though the mask has been off for like 5 years now.

Thre is no doubt that we are also fighting over Ukraine's land and resources.  But the game is rigged.  And several actors at the poker table are in collusion for sure.  But one big player who is not?  The general population of Earth. 

"If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker." - fictional character Mike McDermott

"It's a big club, and you ain't in it!" -George Carlin