Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31138. (Read 26723521 times)

Its coming right after HalfLife episode 3

I like to think of trading as an onion.
You think you understand something and then along comes something new and you realise you were missing a whole load of stuff and were being played.
You keep peeling away layers of the onion learning more and more... it all looks so simple at first glance, but there is a whole world of stuff going on beneath the surface.
The motivations for walls are a good starting point for further investigation....

Something tells me I should have bought at 815 this morning...

ok i have shit to do, wasted to much of my life on this thread.

Isn't that how absolutely all churches, religions and sects operate?

No it's not. If he's all-knowing this would include knowledge about the future. So the above statement is logically internally inconsistent.

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Believing the existential aspect of existence is not hard, because its the truth!


I should start a religion
we all gather together on sundays, I say a tone of existentialist BS, and then collect bitcoin donations  

If all the major exchanges join a voting pool there's no way for them to sell coins they don't have without being immediately detected.

Oops, used the tax amount, and not the "clean" salary in the calculations. Fixed the quote above.

Vel, klager ikke, selv om skatten kunne jo vært lavere

10 lines of fully debugged code a day!    100 lines is like 10 days of effort for great code .

My interpretation of those charts:

1. The people who believe that a bitcoin will be worth a zillion in a few years are not in those charts.  They are holding all the bitcoins they have, and whenever they can get or borrow any more money, they immediately buy bitcoins at the current ask price.  Since we do not see much of the latter happening, it means that the believers that remain have largely run out of money.

2. The people who have posted offers to sell (the red "ask" mountain at right) are

   2a. people who bought bitcoins at 900-1200 USD.  They are waiting for the price to return to the same level, so that they can get out without losing money.  Many will probably hold their offers at those levels even if the  price falls off the bottom, because they would ratehr keep hoping for the impossible rather than admit their mistake.  Only very reluctantly they will lower their ask price and accept a loss.   On the other hand, if the price ever returns to the 900-1200 range, the smarter ones will sell out and quit.

   2b. miners and other people people who bought coins at much lower price, and bet that the price still may get up to the 900-1000 range.  They are likely to profit even if they sell well below that, but will try for that level only for greed.  They are likely to lower or raise their ask price as the price moves, and will sell as  the chances of higher prices seem more remote.

3. Most of the people who have posted offers to buy below the current price (the green "bid" mountain at left) do not believe that the price will get much higher than that.  They  are assuming that if the current price is (say) 900 USD, then it will probably remain in the 850-950 range for a while.   So they offer to buy at (say) 850 and wait for the occasional customer who "must" sell a bunch of bitcoins at any price.   Then they immediately post an offer to sell those same bitcoins at (say) 900-950, and wait for the random guy who "must" buy bitcoins at any price.  By repeating this move they could make 5% profit on their capital, several times a week.   However, this strategy only works if they keep their offers to sell at the front of the "ask" queue.  So they will watch the market carefully, and if they see a large number of sellers lowering their ask prices to (say) the 850-950 range, they will immediately lower their bids do buy to 750-850 range.  

Thus:

  A. The mountain of sell offers asking 900-1200 USD cannot be taken as an indication that the market has faith in bitcoin;

  B. The mountain of buy offers which is always 50-100 USD below the current price is not a buffer against a massive drop in ask prices, because it will recede with it.

Does this make sense?

Might be best to leave the whole matter thing behind us at some point anyway.

So... no StringCoin ?

I can easily agree with that view.

I'm sure if we ever advanced that far, there would be no need for an economy.. We'd just have matter converters that took in garbage and spit out whatever we can imagine.

ok.

"Everyone will serve me when I own all the Bitcoins." ~ Niccolo Machiavelli

I do think so. FIAT is controlled directly by the CBs and gold by a fake paper market they can short-sell to their pleasure in and give people fiat instead of gold... an absolute joke. Something like this being established is quite unlikely in XBT, because it's easy to secure and transact in itself, so there is really not a good reason to buy paper-XBT instead of the real thing. Governments directly manipulating gox/btcchina/... is out of the question in my mind. There's only so many coins and they need to actually have them (or the cooperation of gox to be able to sell coins they don't have).

there is no such thing as an all knowing god
our god is the universe
he is completely oblivious of our existence because in his eyes our universe is a small sub atomic particle in his body.

now you know the secret.


 

You forgot the 3rd largest Chinese exchange btctrade http://www.btctrade.com/
BTCTrade has a 24h volume of 23103  and not to forget Okcoin has a  5,799,141 litecoin 24h volume aswell.