Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31139. (Read 26652636 times)
December 12, 2013, 05:54:53 AM
860 tested for the second time in 24 hours. Up from here?
December 12, 2013, 05:50:42 AM
Party is starting... Maybe TODAY we will see Risto's low before we see a new ATH (tomorrow)... forget months. We're talking days, maybe even hours here. 
December 12, 2013, 05:48:13 AM
Gox going down ...
December 12, 2013, 05:45:22 AM
Quote
It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013. This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66. People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #. Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it. If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.
Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.
Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.
I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.
I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.
You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me
You keep talking over and over about analysis, but the only analysis of substance that I've seen is the trendline, and you should know from undergraduate statistics that extrapolation cannot reliably predict the future.
And he keeps making calls and being completely off about them. Just a few days he was no longer a bear and now we were going to ATHs. I knew this wasn't going to happen.
So many on this forum think that it either has to be $400s to ATHs. No. It. Does. Not.
There is nothing to keep us from moving in a range for several weeks. And, again, barring bad news, we are eventually going higher.
December 12, 2013, 05:41:44 AM
Quote
It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013. This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66. People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #. Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it. If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.
Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.
Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.
I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.
I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.
You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me
You keep talking over and over about analysis, but the only analysis of substance that I've seen is the trendline, and you should know from undergraduate statistics that extrapolation cannot reliably predict the future.
Regression is great for predicting the impact of altering parameters in a controlled or otherwise constant system. But the Bitcoin system is different from how it was in April... and that means you cannot expect the same behavior, or even the same average rate of growth.
December 12, 2013, 05:38:26 AM
Quote
It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013. This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66. People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #. Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it. If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.
Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.
Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.
I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.
I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.
You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me
Dude, this is NOTHING like April. How much in total USD value was sitting in the bid sum in late April?
How much is sitting there now?How many new wallets did Coinbase have being made every day last April? How many now?
How much was 2ndMarket investing into the market last April? How much are they investing now?
It is ridiculous that you say "things dont change" and if they do you can "quantify them." My examples above quantify what I am saying.
There is no way we are in a continued bear market for 3 months barring some hugely bad news.
And you're going to be eating crow AGAIN when your prediction (based on the past performance of bitcoin bubbles) comes up false.
EDIT: In addition you say that 2011 left you in disbelief and 2013 in euphoria. Ummmm...notice that those 2 bubbles ended completely different. And yes, I am a bubble behind you, but I am aware enough to know that this bubble and the last will end completely different too.
December 12, 2013, 05:33:54 AM
All I try to do on the 'clear drops' is take the small trading fraction of my BTC holdings and increase it by 7%, then hold it again until I see a 'clear drop' again.
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
Yeah thats pretty easy these days.
I would argue its still not easy. Otherwise everyone would be doing it right?
No, not really. Most people can't recognize the signs. Some can. Depends on so many factors. I actually have to make my calls once or twice a day as my schedule allows. So I don't try to guess top and bottom. Only sell or buy small positions (10-20% of my coins) when it looks obvious to me.
For instance right now we are forming a pennant. The bear in me says it should go down as the short term trend is that way. Bull in me knows that new money could hit exchanges soon from wires, etc. I also know that if it doesn't go down now it is always more likely to go down on the weekend.
Although I think our movements are going to be less and less for the next couple of weeks.
December 12, 2013, 05:33:48 AM
I seriously can't believe people are still trading on MtGox.
I use mtgox because I don't trust any other entity with much of my funds. We've seen many exchanges come and go (bitcoin24,bitcoin7,tradehill,bitparking etc) but mtgox has been here all the time. Mtgox also has the highest price (and much volume/depth) and I am able to withdraw euro (or simply wait for price to equal any other exchange which happens occasionally). If I'm going to sell, it makes sense to sell for the highest price I can get.
In conclusion I like gox, and I feel that my funds are safe with them.
Goxxing doesn't bother me so much, yes it can be annoying, but trust is more important for me (but i don't trade a lot anyways). I think btc-e is great, low fees, many trading opportunities, but I don't trust them as much (or more precise I'm fearing that they will eventually be targeted by law enforcement).
How can you trust gox? How many times they have promised to do something and then just not done it? Only thing they have done is to be there, but that's only because people are willing to pay that outrageous fee and doesn't mind that they are ass raped in every major movement, Mark is doing a lot of money.
0.60% fee should be enough for everyone to fuck them off. It's scandalous fee.
December 12, 2013, 05:33:43 AM
Quote
It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013. This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66. People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #. Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it. If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.
Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.
Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.
I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.
I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.
You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me
December 12, 2013, 05:30:19 AM
All I try to do on the 'clear drops' is take the small trading fraction of my BTC holdings and increase it by 7%, then hold it again until I see a 'clear drop' again.
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
Yeah thats pretty easy these days.
I would argue its still not easy. Otherwise everyone would be doing it right?
December 12, 2013, 05:26:29 AM
All I try to do on the 'clear drops' is take the small trading fraction of my BTC holdings and increase it by 7%, then hold it again until I see a 'clear drop' again.
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
Yeah thats pretty easy these days.
December 12, 2013, 05:25:54 AM
The markets look to be treading air for a leg down. HOWEVER, maybe this news will perk the price up!
http://blog.coinbase.com/post/69775463031/coinbase-raises-25-million-from-andreessen-horowitz
http://blog.coinbase.com/post/69775463031/coinbase-raises-25-million-from-andreessen-horowitz
Wow. That's really bullish news. Those signups are off the charts. Had no idea they were doing that many processes. No wonder it took them 2 weeks to respond to a question.
December 12, 2013, 05:25:43 AM
All I try to do on the 'clear drops' is take the small trading fraction of my BTC holdings and increase it by 7%, then hold it again until I see a 'clear drop' again.
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....
December 12, 2013, 05:22:25 AM
We are in a full bear market now and wishful thinking won't change a thing. Expect the price to go down for a long while (except the bounces here and there).
The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.
Money is flowing into the exchanges and massive amounts are accumulating on the sidelines. When the market starts to go up again (after its found the new bottom its searching for now) that money is going to be forced back into the market and ATHs will be days away at that point.
I'm not eager to buy back, as it will take a really long time (several weeks to several months) to find a low. And yes I think it is going below $600. Anyway we will find out soon enough.
Yeah, my guess is if that does happen, it'll be between now and the New Year. I don't think it will break that low, though. We'll see.
If you want to take high risks and hold fiat then i suggest kindly that you set yourself a strict stop-loss and obey it when the time comes, even thou it's hard, it has to be done.
December 12, 2013, 05:20:15 AM
The markets look to be treading air for a leg down. HOWEVER, maybe this news will perk the price up!
http://blog.coinbase.com/post/69775463031/coinbase-raises-25-million-from-andreessen-horowitz
http://blog.coinbase.com/post/69775463031/coinbase-raises-25-million-from-andreessen-horowitz
Son of a bitch.
I wanted Coinbase options so badly, but I didn't have the right skills for any of their open positions.
December 12, 2013, 05:19:59 AM
Pietila should read about KISS strategy.
As long as we are above halfway of last rise ($650 stamp) and longer we are above there, it's bullish and we're probably preparing for major up move. Bitstamp has nearly ath bid sum too?
Pietila has so much coins, so maybe he wants too much to buy that silly castle and that's clouding hes judgment. This is ofc a good thing because this is how whales give those coins to us.
As long as we are above halfway of last rise ($650 stamp) and longer we are above there, it's bullish and we're probably preparing for major up move. Bitstamp has nearly ath bid sum too?
Pietila has so much coins, so maybe he wants too much to buy that silly castle and that's clouding hes judgment. This is ofc a good thing because this is how whales give those coins to us.
I'll add here that all other than btce did higher low few hours back.
December 12, 2013, 05:17:34 AM
I use mtgox because I don't trust any other entity with much of my funds. We've seen many exchanges come and go (bitcoin24,bitcoin7,tradehill,bitparking etc) but mtgox has been here all the time.
I see it the same. MtGox sucks, but at least they probably won't go away. Here is a relevant paper trying to quantify those risks: http://lyle.smu.edu/~tylerm/fc13.pdfGox had 80% share back when that was made.
And Bitfloor was still around. It was one of the "surviving exchanges".
Didn't noticed that
December 12, 2013, 05:17:14 AM
I use mtgox because I don't trust any other entity with much of my funds. We've seen many exchanges come and go (bitcoin24,bitcoin7,tradehill,bitparking etc) but mtgox has been here all the time.
I see it the same. MtGox sucks, but at least they probably won't go away. Here is a relevant paper trying to quantify those risks: http://lyle.smu.edu/~tylerm/fc13.pdfGox had 80% share back when that was made.
It starts : Bitcoin has enjoyed wider adoption than any previous crypto-currency.
Wasn't it the first?
December 12, 2013, 05:17:04 AM
We are in a full bear market now and wishful thinking won't change a thing. Expect the price to go down for a long while (except the bounces here and there).
The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.
Money is flowing into the exchanges and massive amounts are accumulating on the sidelines. When the market starts to go up again (after its found the new bottom its searching for now) that money is going to be forced back into the market and ATHs will be days away at that point.
I'm not eager to buy back, as it will take a really long time (several weeks to several months) to find a low. And yes I think it is going below $600. Anyway we will find out soon enough.
Yeah, my guess is if that does happen, it'll be between now and the New Year. I don't think it will break that low, though. We'll see.
December 12, 2013, 05:16:41 AM
The markets look to be treading air for a leg down. HOWEVER, maybe this news will perk the price up!
http://blog.coinbase.com/post/69775463031/coinbase-raises-25-million-from-andreessen-horowitz
http://blog.coinbase.com/post/69775463031/coinbase-raises-25-million-from-andreessen-horowitz
Jump to: