Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31225. (Read 26731150 times)

Don't worry, it will not be there for long. Watch.

This is one hell of a radioactive bouncing cat of doom.

Or just accept the loss and buy back in.

By the way, I've already done what you describe, and can confirm that it really helps: to wit, I have cashed out everything that I initially invested in BTC, plus some more. It has an incredible positive effect on letting you stay calm through rough stretches and experiment with different strategies.

Same on Gox ... some big buys to try to get over 900

Edit: haha, there we go

BTCChina... someone trying hard to drive up price to 5500 again, paper thin volume, though....

been on the mobile app since yesterday night for me

I will probably get shot here for this - but here's my take:

My advice for what it is worth:
I personally find that running spread sheet with all I have ever put into BTC and some alts on it (priced in BTC).
I also have it showing a figure of what price of BTC would have to be to see me at zero profit (this has to be a fiat figure to make sense).
Since I bought some way back, and have bought more since - it gives me an average price of what BTC would have to fall to, in order for me to have wasted my time.  
I trade and buy / sell part of my stash (yes, on Gox) always trying to make sure the average ‘break-even’ stays down at a level that I think realistically BTC will not fall to.  This is around the 300 USD mark for me - any lower is a net loss on money in vs current price on my current coin holdings.
When I cash anything out (sell some coins) it actually reduces the 'no profit' level, as the cash in the spreadsheet insures against a fall in price.
So my risk from a catastrophic crash looks better (and feels it) whenever I sell a couple of BTC.
If the price drops enough to do between 5-10%, on rebuying, I buy back in, if it doesn't - I consider just withdrawing the funds.  A little profit, or some of my fiat back is no bad thing, given I have actually invested funds in.
In the past few weeks - I have many times decided I would cash a few coins out to try to get closer to net profit 'no matter what', but every time the price has dropped to a level it is stupid not to buy back in at - that is, significantly lower that I sold coins for.

Many nights I have thought – OK, I will cash a few out - but left a bid at a lower price for slightly more BTC 'just in case' and woken up to find I had my fiat gone and an increase in my holdings.

In conclusion having some fiat and not worrying about it, is the only way to trade in a calm and sensible way - full BTC means you need to sell with perfect timing and then not miss the bottom and spot it when it is.   Most people here seem to be terrified of losing profit on the coins they have by selling - but unless you have some fiat at the right time, you cannot take advantage of this.

In real time trying to trade on short timescales, it is impossible not to get emotional and screw up - if you set trades up and leave them, it does remove the risk of panic in both directions.

Sell at what you feel is a reasonably good price, to take a little fiat out - then if the price does not fall, don't be afraid to cash a little profit out to reduce your risk on the original investment?

I believe in Bitcoin and I have invested some savings - but it will not make me a millionaire just yet.   So my aim is to be playing with my original investment back with no risk of crash.

I did not buy thousands of coins in 2011, so I am not in the league of many here, I must add – so my thoughts will not apply to all, but if anyone bought in at under current price levels – if the market flips regularly as it has – keep a little fiat and trade to increase coin, while always being prepared to be in fiat too.
For me, my advice would be to look for 5% to 10% profit on trades – not to be totally right about the big swings top and bottom long in advance…

And if a trade looks bad, hang on either way, don’t panic, just wait – if it’s gone totally bad, just take the fiat out and hold what you’re left with?

when we go up you have a losing trade all the time when u have fiat (this "bet" is automatically wrong), i have done shitload of money by holding 100% most of the rise from $20, trick is to have a plan what to do with 100% when something starts to happen

do wtv you want.

I recommend HOLDING BTC at all times and just forgetting about it, let the market deal with price.

try to beat the market and the market will beat you.

just sit back and watch rpietila try to buy back cheaper in 1-3months

its really entertaining.

( i hope my trolling isn't pissing you off rpietila, i think your strategy is quite good, but I like to troll my thread you understand...)

There be a huge bid wall on Bitstamp at 830. I've usually seen those before a dump!

You need to add a timeframe, here.

The bet is "Bitstamp will hit $500 before hitting $1000"

So 2 possible outcomes:
- Bitstamp reaches $500 and then hits $1000
- Bitstamp reaches $1000 before going as low as $500

But how long do we have to wait when it hits $500 to see if it ever reaches $1000 after?

I've been starting to wonder the same today. Maybe I should try some kind of balancing plan between fiat and BTC holding.

50/50 for tonight, then. At least I would cover some of the losses if the market makes a sudden move in either direction.

if we go first to 500 can i pay when we hit 1000 after that?

+1

You can't buy cheap if you only have BTC - you have to sell first.   And that means getting TWO bets right.

you should always have a healthy amount of fiat, incase of cheap coins.

With 80% bulls here you should get good odds - but I would be surprised if anyone is brave enough to give you 2 to 1 for the bet.

personally gambling on Bitcoin is enough for me - in theory I will not lose massively at either price if I am clever enough - but I would love to watch someone offer you odds...

It would beat watching this ticker for a while and someone would end up a hero of sorts.

We would be able to judge just how bearish / bullish you are too!

very in depth analysis.

i hope it goes up....

i think your going to lay down the bits one buy one, and the market will buy them up and then go UP

and i think that even if the market goes down, their wont be enough asks for you to effectively buy back the coins you sold.


this is pure speculation on my part.

I wonder....
Given my track record, if I go all BTC tonight and accept that loss from my stupid spontaneous 804 sell, will the price move down in a flash-crash and reach my target of 800-780?
If I stay all fiat will it go to 980?
Or will it remain in the 850-890 range if I go 50/50?
I am starting to feel paranoia.  

go talk to one of your rich friends.