Epic bull trap, or we're going back above ATH.
My prediction for the rest of the week: Rise with slow volume until Wed, then choppy downtrend to 600s, making it hard to see if a certain figure is a buying of selling opportunity.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31227. (Read 26623300 times)
December 09, 2013, 09:27:23 AM
My prediction for the rest of the week: Rise with slow volume until Wed, then choppy downtrend to 600s, making it hard to see if a certain figure is a buying of selling opportunity.
December 09, 2013, 09:24:56 AM
In this case you are losing coins, but your wealth is better protected. It's like paying "crash insurance". And if you do this always, someday you will win big when big crash comes. This isn't as easy to do as it seems in the pic.
The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)
The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)
Interesting approach. Is there any way that you could make a mathematical model about it, so that we could compare vs. the SSS plan?
December 09, 2013, 09:24:26 AM
I usually fall in these traps, so this time I only have one foot in the trap 
December 09, 2013, 09:19:41 AM
Epic bull trap, or we're going back above ATH.
December 09, 2013, 09:16:39 AM
Wow, what an emotional and physical turmoil this "crash" had on me.
Not sure if I can breath a sigh of a relief yet, but feel must more at ease now that we have moved up again.
That morning when I woke up and the price was basically crawling around on the floor it was really tough on me to keep a level head and not to freak out.
I was so close to just unwinding everything I had, taking the knock and walking away. I think the hold mantra and the "this too shall pass" credo on this forum saved me from going through with that final decision. In the end I sold about 15% of my BTC at $730, which I consider a very reasonable price to pay for my newbie schooling. It could so easily have been everything at $580ish.
One of the biggest reasons for me freaking out was that I went from being 30% in BTC, then 50%,75% and then 95%. When I was at 30 and 50 percent the price swings barely raised an eyebrow, but once I was at 95, I just had to stay awake late at night, finger on the button, JUST IN CASE EVERYTHING came hurtling down in the blink of an eye. This was even though I was in it for the long run with all the best intentions of holding.
I personally think one of the forum posters here, Vycid, always has some or other meaningful posts which I seem to take valuable insight away from. I recalled that he mentioned that if you were constantly second guessing your long position, that you had too much invested. This was exactly my problem. I have now brought my position back to about 75%, aiming to bring it down just a little bit more. Although this is still a little bit high for me, but my stress levels is down by about 90%. I can now again see this as an exciting money experiment that I'm conducting with a portion of my money, which would not be the end of the world if it halved or dropped to even 10% of its value (think I would get out before it reached 0).
All in all, had interesting reflections on how greed and fear operated within me and how easily your emotions can take hold.
In any event, I am ready for which ever direction we move in, because the only thing I'm doing now is holding like a motherf#cker.
Most of us have gone through this. For some of us it was in April though. I was tempted just to sell everything and walk away but thankfully I chose to be patient and wait and see what would happen. It is so much easier dealing with drops when the price you paid for your BTC is substantially lower then the bottom of a "crash" or "correction". The next time we have a so called "crash" it will be way less painful for those that have purchases in the $1000 range. Sure, going from $5000 back to $2500 or whatever happens in the future will suck for a few days/weeks, but BTC never disappoints those that have held long enough. Not sure if I can breath a sigh of a relief yet, but feel must more at ease now that we have moved up again.
That morning when I woke up and the price was basically crawling around on the floor it was really tough on me to keep a level head and not to freak out.
I was so close to just unwinding everything I had, taking the knock and walking away. I think the hold mantra and the "this too shall pass" credo on this forum saved me from going through with that final decision. In the end I sold about 15% of my BTC at $730, which I consider a very reasonable price to pay for my newbie schooling. It could so easily have been everything at $580ish.
One of the biggest reasons for me freaking out was that I went from being 30% in BTC, then 50%,75% and then 95%. When I was at 30 and 50 percent the price swings barely raised an eyebrow, but once I was at 95, I just had to stay awake late at night, finger on the button, JUST IN CASE EVERYTHING came hurtling down in the blink of an eye. This was even though I was in it for the long run with all the best intentions of holding.
I personally think one of the forum posters here, Vycid, always has some or other meaningful posts which I seem to take valuable insight away from. I recalled that he mentioned that if you were constantly second guessing your long position, that you had too much invested. This was exactly my problem. I have now brought my position back to about 75%, aiming to bring it down just a little bit more. Although this is still a little bit high for me, but my stress levels is down by about 90%. I can now again see this as an exciting money experiment that I'm conducting with a portion of my money, which would not be the end of the world if it halved or dropped to even 10% of its value (think I would get out before it reached 0
).All in all, had interesting reflections on how greed and fear operated within me and how easily your emotions can take hold.
In any event, I am ready for which ever direction we move in, because the only thing I'm doing now is holding like a motherf#cker.
December 09, 2013, 09:14:45 AM
So, all you folks who try and sell at the start of a big crash to buy in nearer the bottom. Do you keep your coins in an exchange ready for such an event, or do you move them across when you think the time is near?
I saw there was a guy in this thread who went from 50 to 70 doing so - that doesn't sound like day trade play money. I'd be concerned about leaving a big stash of BTC in an exchange given how Wild West some of the BTC world is. I guess the chances are small if it's just temporary, but would any of you be concerned that BitStamp or Gox could get hacked, or go out of business, for example?
I saw there was a guy in this thread who went from 50 to 70 doing so - that doesn't sound like day trade play money. I'd be concerned about leaving a big stash of BTC in an exchange given how Wild West some of the BTC world is. I guess the chances are small if it's just temporary, but would any of you be concerned that BitStamp or Gox could get hacked, or go out of business, for example?
I have 2/3 of my stash in bitstamp and 1/3 in wallet. I think the risk of losing coins in bitstamp is so small that I'm willing to take that risk, because it lowers other risks. Bitcoin as whole has risks, wallet has risks, bitstamp has risks, how big is the risk and how much can you protect your wealth are the important questions.
For me trading is about lowering the risk of losing money, I think buy and hold has more risks than low risk trading, even thou you have to keep majority of your coins in exchange.
Here's a pic that maybe tells something about my mentality:
In this case you are losing coins, but your wealth is better protected. It's like paying "crash insurance". And if you do this always, someday you will win big when big crash comes. This isn't as easy to do as it seems in the pic.
The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)
EDIT. One important thing to add is that I'm doing this full-time and has been doing and studying this over an year full-time. Don't trade if you don't have time to sacrifice to it.
December 09, 2013, 09:04:08 AM
I dont think there's much upside in buying now in the 950 range. We already know there is going to be resistance at 1000 as well as ~1200 - and even if we overcome those it could stay in that range for quite a while. I almost rather buy at 1300 (35% more expensive) knowing full well we're in a definite 'CCMF' upswing than buying now possibly at 100% premium if this is a bull trap. Don't know how much validity there is in this strategy but it feels right to me.
Stick to whatever it is you plan to..unless you find flaws in the plan then re evaluate. I started to feel silly about 900-1000k btc buys.. but I just thought to myself this correction will strengthen my already ( didn't sell a single coin expecting to see 1x, 2xx, or 4xx) bull long term prices and now we can return to slower and some steadier growth towards 1k with confidence the run up wasn't just a couple Chinese bulls. I think alot of people started to believe after the last correction which in China showed less nervousness then the rest imo.
December 09, 2013, 09:01:52 AM
December 09, 2013, 08:57:04 AM
I dont think there's much upside in buying now in the 950 range. We already know there is going to be resistance at 1000 as well as ~1200 - and even if we overcome those it could stay in that range for quite a while. I almost rather buy at 1300 (35% more expensive) knowing full well we're in a definite 'CCMF' upswing than buying now possibly at 100% premium if this is a bull trap. Don't know how much validity there is in this strategy but it feels right to me.
December 09, 2013, 08:50:18 AM
China is leading the way upwards. Will Gox follow?
They're 30$ under gox?
December 09, 2013, 08:43:37 AM
China is leading the way upwards. Will Gox follow?
December 09, 2013, 08:43:10 AM
So, all you folks who try and sell at the start of a big crash to buy in nearer the bottom. Do you keep your coins in an exchange ready for such an event, or do you move them across when you think the time is near?
I saw there was a guy in this thread who went from 50 to 70 doing so - that doesn't sound like day trade play money. I'd be concerned about leaving a big stash of BTC in an exchange given how Wild West some of the BTC world is. I guess the chances are small if it's just temporary, but would any of you be concerned that BitStamp or Gox could get hacked, or go out of business, for example?
I saw there was a guy in this thread who went from 50 to 70 doing so - that doesn't sound like day trade play money. I'd be concerned about leaving a big stash of BTC in an exchange given how Wild West some of the BTC world is. I guess the chances are small if it's just temporary, but would any of you be concerned that BitStamp or Gox could get hacked, or go out of business, for example?
December 09, 2013, 08:39:29 AM
12000 Bitcoin to take us over $1200
only 120 mil.
more or less.
I'm buying.
12 million to correct you, which is achievable in few days
December 09, 2013, 08:38:46 AM
12000 Bitcoin to take us over $1200
only 120 mil.
more or less.
I'm buying.
December 09, 2013, 08:37:49 AM
I would be fine with 800-980 range holding for a few weeks, personally.
December 09, 2013, 08:36:29 AM
12000 Bitcoin to take us over $1200
December 09, 2013, 08:33:56 AM
it has been an absolutely brutal past few days for many people. Get some sleep. Money can't buy back health.
I also admit it was extremely difficult holding over the weekend but this is yet another example where holding wins and panic loses.
Good luck.
I also admit it was extremely difficult holding over the weekend but this is yet another example where holding wins and panic loses.
Good luck.
December 09, 2013, 08:30:30 AM
Good thing I didn't trade this, I would have taken all the bear money! 
December 09, 2013, 08:27:02 AM
last chance to sell under 1000$
it was 980 round 2 am est. you were late to that post..
either way please we could use less trolling like this.. so many assholes spreading fud to make a couple dollars ( or a couple thousand ).. your behaving like the losers who'd lie about whats on an exam in univ/college to cause a bell curve to improve your own mark at the cost of causing others to fail.
Reread my post... and realize it makes no sense.. then lighten up
Apologies.. I did fully jump to a conclusion upon drowsy reading been trying to be troll patrol
at least my comment still applied to the other.. last chance to sell at 700-750-800 comments I have read.I will also admit me being a dick to others is probably the least effect way to get people to stop trolling
December 09, 2013, 08:25:14 AM
Wow, what an emotional and physical turmoil this "crash" had on me.
....
....
That's what the pros do best. Toy with your emotion and trigger chain reaction of kiddos punching that SELL button. Great way to clean out the folks < 50BTC.
Unless your day trading these dips have you excited. Better have nerves of steel.
I traded some BTC for gold when it was over $1K. Don't want the banks reporting any of my activity to the IRS. Why would anyone deal with fiat and banks. Things get exponentially cumbersome when you do.
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