Topic: Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop? (Read 12072 times)

Are you shorting on bitfinex, please? I'm asking around because it's rather shocking so few exchanges are offering both sides of the buy/sell. I mean, I get that we don't have derivatives, but so few houses offering shorts...

I'm thinking of bitfinex, FWIW, so would appreciate the confirmation or advice-- I have several accounts, but most of my stash is traded at gox (please also feel free to disabuse me of this error). Anyone, feel free to PM me.

Well, we've seen 450(gox), as a deeper dive was too much downward pressure to be sustained, and investors wanted cheap coins; and, now we've bounced up to 750 (gox)-- just looking at it, we might even get another rounded top, at as high as 830, imo, and then continue our resumed reduction towards a bottom, which we have not found.

All of the previous adoption spikes (not bubbles, because they ended much higher than they started-- important difference) took longer to *unwind* in terms of time, than to *escalate*. QED, we've got a month or two more of this, and after the next big correction, most of that time will be a stagnant sideways crawl, as we begin to repressurize (slowly) in anticipation of big money, smart money, and increased transactions which are already slated for Q2-Q3 of 2014.

Targets: one more drop to 300 or 400, another bounce and then a languishing crawl back to the same bottom by end of winter (just in time for lover's day, here in the states!)

Lastly, this adoption spike (if you subscribe to the reasonable presumption that Bitcoin behaves similarly to a natural phenomenon, an S-curve pathway) has already factored in all of the news, new buyers, legislation, etc. Those who have been made aware of Bitcoin, and can do something about it, or have chosen to do something about it, have already acted. The pressure exceeded the natural price increase! We got a spike!  

Edit: In full disclosure, I was full fiat for the last few days (a bear can smell these things), bought the dip at 490 (gox) and am now back to full fiat (749 gox). This 'luck' may color my perspective-- probably, I'm just a much better bear than bull.

Nice try, bud! However, the situation in Ukraine has nothing to do with the bitcoin price movement currently. They've been protesting in Kiev for the last few weeks. When the police moved in, trying to beat the protesters into submission, the bitcoin didn't budge a bit. Okay, so Putin and the Ukraine President What's-his-face got together (did you see the picture of the two men? Putin looks so dimunitive, almost dwarvish, next the Ukraine guy), and announced the bail out by Russia, it had no effect on the bitcoin price.

Were in an upward trend in available coins on Gox that goes back to the start of December, Depth took a hit recently but if it returns to it's prior accumulation rate it will be 4-5 days for it to return to the ~40K level that it was at just prior to the recent buy.

Dollar depth looks to have maxed out at 35 million and has been staying near that level, with brief downward spikes before even the beginning of December.  This clearly indicates the upward phase is over and the best that can be hoped for is stabilization, but we will likely see downward pressure from China for at least another month.

No, I still see downtrend in graph data, so I expect the price coming back down again to under 500 range

bear markets don't hit bottom in a day

we're still clearly in a downtrend. we see over the next few days whether that will change.

So what just happened over the past 24h then? Will it be coming back down again any time soon? Or have we recovered that quickly?

This is the price range that almost everyone seems to be betting on....

....and if that is where the herd is going, that is probably where the price is going.

Ok, I'm fairly new to bitcoins, having been trading etc.. since May of this year.

I'm reading all the speculation on here, and there are some things that are certain. The current price of bitcoins has zero affect on future prices. Just like stocks or commodities on the market, prices are affected more by external events than anything else.

Now since bitcoins are a currency, (to those who trade with them they are, so for our purposes they are), then things that affect currencies will affect bitcoins.

The speculation in China that bitcoins were going to be accepted by the central bank is what drove the really big increase to $1200 per bitcoin.

But, there is also another thing going on, the Ukraine has been in financial crisis for several weeks. And has just now agreed to a bail out from Russia.

I think these two things first China's central bank not accepting bitcoins, causing it to fall from the $1200 high, but then the instability in Ukraine has been holding it up in the $800 to $900 range for the past week or so.

Now that the Ukraine situation appears to be resolved, then I believe the price point will come down some. I wish I had that crystal ball to know exactly where that point is, as we all do I suppose.

I believe we will see prices in the $400 to $500 range, then slowly rebound.

I don't think it is nearly as bad as it seems. It's not as if China had adopted Bitcoin, a billion people were using it, then it got banned. It sounds stupid, but it's this kind of semi-conscious thinking that is creating a "China goes, we all go" illusion. It's not like that. Bitcoin was growing at the same exponential rate before China, and there are billions of other people to keep this rate going for a good long while. That's why the price isn't dropping as much as you might think it would - because the real market for Bitcoin is not just a reflection of the China hype we are getting.

And with all that, it is not even banned in China and I very much doubt it will be. They simply want to control the flow of money into it like they try to do with other assets.

Now aside from the China stuff, Bitcoin is being accepted in many countries now. Not a day goes by now without it being touted as an asset by some European country or another; and it doesn't matter that it's as an asset - it's being accepted and that will allay the principal fear of any average would-be investor. As for the other fears - security, price volatility, etc. - companies are working fast to make it easy and secure to buy and use Bitcoin with a simple username and password, and hedge funds are busy preparing the same graphs you have looked at showing exponential growth, logarithmic rates, etc. to show their clients. A small but significant handful of Wall Streeters and hedge fund people have already put their own money in.

I may be wrong but I bet nobody here thinks Bitcoin will be sub-$1000 at the end of next year; the vast majority think it will actually be much higher. Don't forget, even just a $300 rise from $700 to $1000 in one year is a superb return on investment. Put your $700 in a bank for a year and there's actually a chance with fees you will have less than that in a year's time! A good interest rate might give you a $15 bonus on the money after a year if you are lucky.

People realise that other people are thinking the same. That's why there is less mad panic and more hesitant "dumping" going on. No-one wants to dump and then see the price go up and not come down again. If it doesn't go much lower then trying to trade now is foolish and everyone knows and feels that. It's not worth the stress. So more people than ever before are holding on for next year.

I hope I didn't bore you all!  

$300 may seem unreasonably low right now, but it's all a matter of perspective. Less than a month ago, $700 felt unreasonably low to a lot of people. Perhaps in another month from now, we will fall to $300 and then people will be waiting for $200. Market sentiments are always changing.

Regarding the weak hands thing.... a lot of the bottom fishers are weak hands. Me, for instance. My hands are so fucking weak right now. Just playing the bounces.

Prepared to eat my words, but this level will be broken.

why is it looking worse? It looks like it is holding in the 700s. There has not been a huge sell off yet like on the 6th. I think a lot of weak hands were shaken at that time. Definitely a downtrend though. Maybe it will just be very slow? Who knows? Where's the new Mystery chart?

The difference between 350 and 700 (and 1000) is marked. It seems to me that buying anything under 1k is a bad move to maximize gains.....

Ok.

Them BTC must be looking pretty cheap right now. Almost half the price of little over a week ago.

But does the big China Bitcoin wind-down not worry you?

Honestly none. But I'm getting some money to an exchange somewhere near you pretty quick. 

Ok T.Stuart.

Come clean. How many BTC are you holding and at what average price did you get them at?

Who in their right minds anywhere who has anything to do with Bitcoin (except maybe one or two poor Chinese noobs) really believes that it would stay at a price like $300 for anything more than a minute before bouncing right back up and right out of there? Who thinks Bitcoin is going to have an average price of $300 next year? If such people exist, quite a few of them exist, then he's in with a small chance. If not then forget it - $300 will not happen.