Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31649. (Read 26609867 times)

Since in 80% of the scenarios it will come down to these levels or less, I am in no hurry to buy back. It helps that in the event of moon, I am still numbered among the ultra rich.

EDIT: I read Zangelbert's estimates only after producing mine.

You're quoting Spaceman_Spiff, not me. I said "just about everyone." And this has already happened before: Just about everyone is wealthy by 1950 standards, and especially by pre-industrial, and most especially by feudal standards. One to two decades is a long time these days.

It's a nice story you put up here about all going rich fast etc... Do you ever wonder where these money came from? Maybe ALL the inflation around the world found its way into a new robust medium? Can someone say to me why the US (and other) Governments are backing up Bitcoin? Can someone say to me why the Banks are (silently) supporting it (or at least are not against it?).

If you have answer to these questions then you *may* be able to predict where this is going (and why so fast). For the story; I don't. I'm just a regular here who posts memes...  

You said not instantly , but you still stay by the word "everybody'?
Common , that's an utopian never to be achieved dream.

Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.

That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.

Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.

1% of 12 million bitcoins = BTC120,000 = $100M

Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.

So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.

Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.

Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.

The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new

Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up before all the positive news and is now struggling...

$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago

$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.

If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.  

Not instantly. I said financial freedom in a decade or two, and I mean by today's standards.

Bitcoin is more than just frictionless payments and finance. It's a complete restructuring of the world and the elimination of many inefficiencies that held people back. The removal of those inefficiencies isn't just going to make sending money cheaper and some online goods available at a discount. It will enable whole new industries like the Internet has, but it goes far beyond even that. It fundamentally, radically decentralizes power. It blows away most of the borders that kept people from participating in the international division of labor. It thwarts all kind of oppression, especially economic oppression.

It is "rat poison," as Charlie Munger inadvertently said, or as Chamath Palihapitiya called it, "schmuck insurance." Power to the people. Truly free markets, everywhere. Think China during Mao's reign versus now. That's the kind of change that's coming. Even for people who never invest in this bull market.

Since in 80% of the scenarios it will come down to these levels or less, I am in no hurry to buy back.

Not instantly. I said financial freedom in a decade or two, and I mean by today's standards.

Bitcoin is more than just frictionless payments and finance. It's a complete restructuring of the world and the elimination of many inefficiencies that held people back. The removal of those inefficiencies isn't just going to make sending money cheaper and some online goods available at a discount. It will enable whole new industries like the Internet has, but it goes far beyond even that. It fundamentally, radically decentralizes power. It blows away most of the borders that kept people from participating in the international division of labor. It thwarts all kind of oppression, especially economic oppression.

It is "rat poison," as Charlie Munger inadvertently said, or as Chamath Palihapitiya called it, "schmuck insurance." Power to the people. Truly free markets, everywhere. Think China during Mao's reign versus now. That's the kind of change that's coming. Even for people who never invest in this bull market.

Rule number two : do not sell on weekdays
Rule number three : do not sell at night
Rule number four : bitcoin is global, it is always night somewhere.

This kind of reasoning scares me. So it's basically a get rich quick scheme. Can't see how that would fail.

Come on Zangelbert.  You can't possibly believe everybody is going to get rich?  I mean, sure, if bitcoin is a more efficient method of payment and finance in general, then it will benefit the general population, much like the internet itself has already provided many benefits to the economy. But it doesn't instantaneously transform everybody into millionairs.

If you're still estimating $2 - $3k top, how do you think we'll get there from here? Are we dropping for now, or on the way?

I agree with the general trendline you've laid out, but the flipside is that these deviations can be quite large within the trend, and they tend to go into overdrive before they calm down. I think your 2-3K then crash to 1K (or crash to $500 and then level out above 1K for a few months) scenario is more a little bit more likely than an exhaustion and consolidation in the mid-hundreds. But maybe that rhymes too closely with April 2013. China pulling a 2011 could bring the price to more like 5K before crashing down to 1K. There's just a lot going on right now, and it felt like a perfect storm a few weeks ago. Now it seems we're consolidating.

On the other hand, just a little bad news and a few whale cash-outs could douse most of the bullish news sentiment such as the Richard Branson thing. It would be seen in hindsight as "bubble indicators."

I'm thinking 65% chance of a moonshoot from here, 35% chance of a cooldown to low-to-mid-hundreds.

Come on Zangelbert.  You can't possibly believe everybody is going to get rich?  I mean, sure, if bitcoin is a more efficient method of payment and finance in general, then it will benefit the general population, much like the internet itself has already provided many benefits to the economy. But it doesn't instantaneously transform everybody into millionairs.

If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.