Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31650. (Read 26609927 times)

No I'm saying even people who don't invest will be far better off. Not better off than the investors, but better off that they would have been if Bitcoin had never been invented.

Not instantly. I said financial freedom in a decade or two, and I mean by today's standards.

Bitcoin is more than just frictionless payments and finance. It's a complete restructuring of the world and the elimination of many inefficiencies that held people back. The removal of those inefficiencies isn't just going to make sending money cheaper and some online goods available at a discount. It will enable whole new industries like the Internet has, but it goes far beyond even that. It fundamentally, radically decentralizes power. It blows away most of the borders that kept people from participating in the international division of labor. It thwarts all kind of oppression, especially economic oppression.

It is "rat poison," as Charlie Munger inadvertently said, or as Chamath Palihapitiya called it, "schmuck insurance." Power to the people. Truly free markets, everywhere. Think China during Mao's reign versus now. That's the kind of change that's coming. Even for people who never invest in this bull market.

My quick odds for the different scenarios would be:
- Going to the moon = 20%
- Grinding below $1k for some time, then rise to $2-$3k, followed by crash to below $1k = 50%
- Trending down towards $500, probably dipping lower short term = 30%

Since in 80% of the scenarios it will come down to these levels or less, I am in no hurry to buy back. It helps that in the event of moon, I am still numbered among the ultra rich.

EDIT: I read Zangelbert's estimates only after producing mine.

I think you're as right as anyone can be.   Hard to call, but rpietila won't mind either way - he (tends to) makes money whatever happens...

If a lot of the world joined bitcoin and we only relied on bitcoin to buy things then eventually people will only be getting 0.001 for their hourly wage for example, it's the ones who hold onto their coins that become a bit wealthier.
I'm holding until $150,000 then wanting to buy a house with 1/4 and then maybe get my airline pilots licence.  Do something for charity. And then if it's reliable to keep as bitcoins then i will with some.

I agree with the general trendline you've laid out, but the flipside is that these deviations can be quite large within the trend, and they tend to go into overdrive before they calm down. I think your 2-3K then crash to 1K (or crash to $500 and then level out above 1K for a few months) scenario is more a little bit more likely than an exhaustion and consolidation in the mid-hundreds. But maybe that rhymes too closely with April 2013. China pulling a 2011 could bring the price to more like 5K before crashing down to 1K. There's just a lot going on right now, and it felt like a perfect storm a few weeks ago. Now it seems the storm just keeps happening and we're consolidating, returning to simple exponential growth within the short-term trend, rather than double-exponential as we had last week. So it could be the eye of this perfect storm.

On the other hand, just a little bad news and a few whale cash-outs could douse most of the bullish news sentiment such as the Richard Branson thing and newly favorable media. It would be seen in hindsight as "bubble indicators."

I'm thinking 65% chance of a moonshoot from here, 35% chance of a cooldown to low-to-mid-hundreds.

Come on Zangelbert.  You can't possibly believe everybody is going to get rich?  I mean, sure, if bitcoin is a more efficient method of payment and finance in general, then it will benefit the general population, much like the internet itself has already provided many benefits to the economy. But it doesn't instantaneously transform everybody into millionairs.

He is just pointing out, quite reasonably it has more 'room' to go down than up and the news was priced in before the new money came in.  I think he is still a long term bull, but is saying there is no real support for prices above a few weeks ago with money difficult to get in to buy and new money being nervous.

It's still going to bounce around a lot before we go to the moon, even if you believe ultimately (as I do) we will.  That is all.

This kind of reasoning scares me. So it's basically a get rich quick scheme. Can't see how that would fail.

If you're still estimating $2 - $3k top, how do you think we'll get there from here? Are we dropping for now, or on the way?

It's true I was kind of ambivalent about investing at one point because I thought, "If Bitcoin succeeds, just about everyone is eventually going to be rich by today's standards anyway, whether they bought in or not." It's more about how fast you want to get there. If you invest now, you get to experience financial freedom in a year or two, instead of a decade or two.

Conclusion: we're going, down, Down, DOWN? 

Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.

That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.

Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.

1% of 12 million bitcoins = BTC120,000 = $100M

Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.

So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.

Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.

Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.

The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new

Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up before all the positive news and is now struggling...

$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago

$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.

If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.  

Smart guy, Silbert is. Ripple Labs investor too. Nice!  

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2013/11/kr527-keiser-report-gold-silver-bitcoin-ftw/

(23:20)

Someone wants the price to go up Getting nervous?
Now I hope we go down, Down, DOWN and YOU panic sell 

most of us owe mr silbert a lot

I'm aware of all the good news that been coming out lately and how this creates a strong bullish sentiment. But having no previous market experience I'm just wondering if any of you other guys have some sort of term for when a market becomes 'saturated' with good news and shows a tendency to go sideways? or even down? People keep saying good news! more good news! But eventually there will be a point even for the short term, when all the people likely to invest (during this run of 'new' good news) will have either researched and disregarded, or actually invested?

Not being bearish or trolling, but it's hard to sort the wheat from the chaff when so many posters on here are blindly bullish through emotion or investment.

saved as lecture during cold winterdays  
thanks, this should be a sticky...(or is it already?)

edit: i'll put mike hearn's talk on documentary thread