Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 317. (Read 26463877 times)

Barry Shilbert
Hedge Funds shorting
Gox coins

All that massive selling pressure eating the halving pump effect and Blackrock etc will not allocate all their investment capital into Bitcoin just 1% - 5%.

We need to be happy if the price will reach $100k next year.

Would be nice to see a competitive match to kick this Euros off but.. I'm expecting a Germany masterclass. New era for die mannschaft!

Nuking all the shorts
Here she jumps, green over green
Grasshopper candle









#haiku

I have my doubts that there is any necessity for me to respond to any of your particular pieces of analysis, since I am not really sure if you are saying anything with any level of conviction, except that maybe you consider the odds for having a downward correction are greater than they had been earlier because of a failure to break to the upside - yet you are not even saying that with any level of meaningful conviction or specifics - except that certain lower levels might happen - and surely, I am willing to stick with a bet that I had earlier stated, which is that the BTC price will likely not get lower than 20% higher than the 200-WMA.. and sure yeah there could be breakouts to the top or the bottom, and I had largely just been proclaiming $55k to $82k to be no man's land.. causing a certain increased level of probability that the breakout is going to be towards the top rather than the bottom, but it is not like certainty, so maybe slightly greater than 55% odds.. add 2.5% odds since we are generally in a bull market and add an additional 2.5% odds since we are in no man's land, but that still only gets us to 45/55 rather than 50/50 odds or something other than that, and so that might not even give us anything that is bettable.. even you did not come back to suggest some kind of potential bettable terms when we dropped below $60k the last time.. around April 29 that lasted ONLY slightly less than 3 days.

I mean I can hardly see any changes to the conditions from the mere fact that BTC prices have largely been bouncing around at the top of the range between about $60k and $70k for the past 3.5  months-ish and yeah there may or may not be further consolidation.. and it hardly matters except that I am a wee bit surprised that we are hanging out in no man's land for quite longer than I thought, but it is not even like the upward's inclinations of noman's land and/or the greater chances of less resistance give any certainties regarding what might end up happening, since we recognize and appreciate that less likely scenarios can end up playing out, and less likely scenarios end up playing out a lot of times, which make them hardly tradeable and hardly bettable, except maybe considering some of the extremes might become bettable, for example if you are going to want to bet me that the BTC price is going to get below 20% above the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, or if you want to bet me that BTC prices are not going to end up touching somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024, or if you want to bet me that the high price for 2025 is not going to be higher than the high price for 2024. .and yeah I don't have great confidence in ay of these propositions, except that I would be willing to bet them in terms of their being greater than 50/50.. and even with that I understand that I might not end up winning the bet, even though they seem bettable from my perspective and it would be interesting if someone, like you, might be willing to take the opposite side of such potential bets..

Today I read the Pope is likely to give a speech about AI at the G7. If that doesn't prove it's BS, I don't know what does

Given that everything with AI is super popular right now, I wouldn't be surprised if soon they start selling bread and milk that will have the AI ​​label on it.

A possibility: OTC whales are people like C. Palihapitiya, who promoted SPACs before (yikes!) and now profess suspiciously bullish targets for bitcoin.
On WS, if you are very bullish, it means that you want to sell and vice versa.
People like Chamath (but not necessarily himself) are selling into ETF accumulation, perhaps (this was also proposed by @dragonvslinux).
If so, this may continue for a while (maybe even for the rest of the year or at least until September).

Another, worse possibility, is that in the eyes of Silicon Valley "elite", at some point bitcoin will compete for electricity resources with AI data centers.
Who do you think they would preferentially back?

Considering everything, I still think that bitcoin should attain approximately gold value (15-16 tril as of now) in due course.
That would be 750-800K/btc. The question is-would it happen in this cycle (hopefully) or the next one (more likely lately).

If it's not 68k in one hour I'll eat my hat