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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31888. (Read 26718087 times)
November 19, 2013, 11:27:54 PM
November 19, 2013, 11:26:29 PM
I am confused.
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
Just because the market cap hit ~9 Billion doesnt mean there is enough money to buy a certain amount of sell orders. An all time high isn't an average price and people want to take profits, when there is more sellers, or profiteers, than buyers then the price goes down. I dont know how much CNY is on the books but if someone wanted to sell 40,000 coins, worth approximately 16,000,000 usd, the slippage on a single sell would cause it to drop to half of that amount. If they slowly sold over the course of hours/days/weeks they still have a chance of scaring the market or dropping the price in a single sell to $300. There are 12 million coins, what if 10% of those holders wanted to cash out? They couldn't, not for a period of months anyway, there simple isn't enough money in the market (at the moment), in fact 320,000 coins would fill every order on every exchange down to a 1$, would make alot of people happy but would eliminate any liquidity for a while.
OK, so you need to recognize that you don't get it. You need to look at a chart that is longer than 2 months old, longer than 6 months old, longer than 2 years old... go back to the beginning, read old forums, and try to understand that we are seeing the same pattern over and over and over again. It's going to take more cycles and more cycles and more cycles to get huge... only now, YOU will be able to be involved, if you gain some perspective (see forest, not trees). Cheers and good luck.
November 19, 2013, 11:25:41 PM
I think Goat called it when he observed that the bull run isn't over, it is just being throttled by fiat constraints.
So lots of people are waiting on bank transfers which is creating a huge influx of money?
I think this is an oversimplified view of things. More money is coming in, but people are also getting nervous and jumping ship the longer this thing takes to get moving again.
Furthermore, a lot of people who sent their money in to exchanges may change their mind now that the rally is over and things are slipping.
I'd be pleased to see another move upward but I have no expectation of that.
Agreed, it's not this simple. Of course the bubble didn't run out due to lack of fiat! People need to have logical consistency. During the rise everyone was proclaiming "We can't crash, there are too many exchanges, they can't all fail!". Now the same group of people are shouting "All the exchanges are out of fiat!". It doesn't make any sense.
Look at China: Fiat to the exchanges in under 5 minutes, but buying is subdued. The crash isn't because of "lack of fiat", it's because "areyoumotherfuckinginsaneitjustrose1700%"!
Boring period incoming. Thank Bitcoin -- chance to focus on your family over Christmas instead of checking the price every 20 seconds.
This is it guys. ^^^^
I've been saying that since we reached the old ATH (266) we were at DEFCON 1, DEFCON 2 started at 2X, and DEFCON 3 was when the whale thumped 900 in our faces, and it still plays out into the blood on the street, that, really, is only *just* beginning. I studied the shit out of the trades in April, knew the patterns, and slept *very* little in the last several days, sometimes getting multiple texts at 2, 3, and 4, and was up by 5 the last 2 days. I've probably checked the prices, on average, every 6 minutes of being awake. DEFCON 3 is only 3 or 4 days, and the whole parabolic cycle (20-40 days) is just exhausting.
What did I learn-- that trading is fucking tough; yeah, I made some money, but I could have done a lot better... wait for it... if I had just bought and held. Perhaps, I, too, will pass through the circle of fire that is n00b.
I made 0.5% total.
It was not worth it.
Never again. I'm a firm believer in buy-and-hold now. My position has gotten big enough that I am unlikely to have cash to significantly add to my bitcoin position in the future, but I'm not looking to sell.
This is how it is: I've got a lottery ticket that matches up with everything but the powerball, and it's coming down the chute.
I could sell now and retire a couple years earlier, or I can grow some balls and get my shot at total independence. If it doesn't work out I'll be no worse off than I was last year.
I'm in for the long haul. My dream house is bought in Bitcoin or not at all.
November 19, 2013, 11:21:12 PM
blah blah blah ...
What did I learn-- that tradingis fucking tough requires huge testicles, and i have a fragile vagina.
... blah blah blah
What did I learn-- that trading
... blah blah blah
November 19, 2013, 11:18:08 PM
I think Goat called it when he observed that the bull run isn't over, it is just being throttled by fiat constraints.
So lots of people are waiting on bank transfers which is creating a huge influx of money?
I think this is an oversimplified view of things. More money is coming in, but people are also getting nervous and jumping ship the longer this thing takes to get moving again.
Furthermore, a lot of people who sent their money in to exchanges may change their mind now that the rally is over and things are slipping.
I'd be pleased to see another move upward but I have no expectation of that.
Agreed, it's not this simple. Of course the bubble didn't run out due to lack of fiat! People need to have logical consistency. During the rise everyone was proclaiming "We can't crash, there are too many exchanges, they can't all fail!". Now the same group of people are shouting "All the exchanges are out of fiat!". It doesn't make any sense.
Look at China: Fiat to the exchanges in under 5 minutes, but buying is subdued. The crash isn't because of "lack of fiat", it's because "areyoumotherfuckinginsaneitjustrose1700%"!
Boring period incoming. Thank Bitcoin -- chance to focus on your family over Christmas instead of checking the price every 20 seconds.
This is it guys. ^^^^
I've been saying that since we reached the old ATH (266) we were at DEFCON 1, DEFCON 2 started at 2X, and DEFCON 3 was when the whale thumped 900 in our faces, and it still plays out into the blood on the street, that, really, is only *just* beginning. I studied the shit out of the trades in April, knew the patterns, and slept *very* little in the last several days, sometimes getting multiple texts at 2, 3, and 4, and was up by 5 the last 2 days. I've probably checked the prices, on average, every 6 minutes of being awake. DEFCON 3 is only 3 or 4 days, and the whole parabolic cycle (20-40 days) is just exhausting.
What did I learn-- that trading is fucking tough; yeah, I made some money, but I could have done a lot better... wait for it... if I had just bought and held. Perhaps, I, too, will pass through the circle of fire that is n00b.
November 19, 2013, 11:17:48 PM
I am confused.
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
Just because the market cap hit ~9 Billion doesnt mean there is enough money to buy a certain amount of sell orders. An all time high isn't an average price and people want to take profits, when there is more sellers, or profiteers, than buyers then the price goes down. I dont know how much CNY is on the books but if someone wanted to sell 40,000 coins, worth approximately 16,000,000 usd, the slippage on a single sell would cause it to drop to half of that amount. If they slowly sold over the course of hours/days/weeks they still have a chance of scaring the market or dropping the price in a single sell to $300. There are 12 million coins, what if 10% of those holders wanted to cash out? They couldn't, not for a period of months anyway, there simple isn't enough money in the market (at the moment), in fact 320,000 coins would fill every order on every exchange down to a 1$, would make alot of people happy but would eliminate any liquidity for a while.
November 19, 2013, 11:17:05 PM
Strange how the gap between MtGox and Bitstamp narrows. I noticed this happens before a rally. Before a crash the gaps are bigger.
November 19, 2013, 11:16:56 PM
I don't understand why people are selling at $535 when its over $800 in china?
fear, uncertainty, and doubt
November 19, 2013, 11:14:11 PM
I am confused.
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
The downtrend is due to the fact that the price was high.
As the price increases too fast, people sell the Bitcoin, because they want to take profit.
no wai
rlly?
November 19, 2013, 11:13:52 PM
I don't understand why people are selling at $535 when its over $800 in china?
November 19, 2013, 11:12:17 PM
I am confused.
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
The downtrend is due to the fact that the price was high.
As the price increases too fast, people sell the Bitcoin, because they want to take profit.
November 19, 2013, 11:09:12 PM
Japanese green teas like sencha and gyokuro are especially full of L-Theanine,
and isotopes...don't forget the isotopes
Isomers...?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_Nuclear_Power_Plant
Nope, Isotopes. Iodine and Cesium mostly.
http://www.living-intentionally.com/2011/03/27/radioactive-iodine-and-cesium-in-japan-just-the-facts/
November 19, 2013, 11:06:08 PM
I am confused.
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
This new downtrend was due to the price rising too fast? And someone sold a shit ton of coins because why? Makes no sense. Why not just let the momentum buy through your ask wall.
The only reason I can think of, is that with these past few days being in such a huge spotlight, might as well crash the price down and discourage new buyers, giving me more time to accumulate coins.
I mean seriously! Am I just stating the obvious or am I way off track?
November 19, 2013, 11:04:04 PM
Wont go down as much as it went up, thats for sure! Its just going to bounce around in the three digits for a while before ensuing its journey to four digits, next few weeks or so is will be leveling off. Refueling from the profits people don't want to actually withdrawal, while some gamble, bears will be fighting bulls. Participate at will. If you notice a 15,000 coin drop, just ignore it and try to buy more, if you can't just wait it out. You can ascertain peace of mind by putting your coins offline and ignoring the charts for a year or two, or you can join the frey. Unless someone uses some vulcan mind meld and jedi hand tricks, the market will be fought over for a time.
November 19, 2013, 11:01:32 PM
November 19, 2013, 11:01:26 PM
where we going from here? btcchina back under 5k cny.... wonder if we see more downward pressure soon
That's a triple bull trap we're seeing now. Is that even a term? rofl...
I wouldn't be surprised to see it at $300-$400 in a few days, this is my first guess. My second guess is that $500 may be the floor, there would have to be a 10k sell off to get there. I wouldn't be surprised to see that either.
By the way, I have no idea what I'm talking about. However, I have called the last two bubbles within a day or so of the bubble happening. Maybe it's luck.
that wall moved super-fast 15hs ago... just saying
November 19, 2013, 10:53:28 PM
where we going from here? btcchina back under 5k cny.... wonder if we see more downward pressure soon
That's a triple bull trap we're seeing now. Is that even a term? rofl...
I wouldn't be surprised to see it at $300-$400 in a few days, this is my first guess. My second guess is that $500 may be the floor, there would have to be a 10k sell off to get there. I wouldn't be surprised to see that either.
By the way, I have no idea what I'm talking about. However, I have called the last two bubbles within a day or so of the bubble happening. Maybe it's luck.
November 19, 2013, 10:43:23 PM
where we going from here? btcchina back under 5k cny.... wonder if we see more downward pressure soon
November 19, 2013, 10:25:37 PM
I'm making a cup of green tea.
Anyone trading should do the same. There's some psychoactive stuff in green tea leaves that tends to calm you down, make you more composed and rational. I've found it very useful for technical trading.
I remember reading that anthropologists suspect that it's the psychoactive qualities of green tea that led to the development of the Japanese tea ceremony and Zen Buddhism.
But I digress...
Japanese green teas like sencha and gyokuro are especially full of L-Theanine, the drug you're mentioning.Anyone trading should do the same. There's some psychoactive stuff in green tea leaves that tends to calm you down, make you more composed and rational. I've found it very useful for technical trading.
I remember reading that anthropologists suspect that it's the psychoactive qualities of green tea that led to the development of the Japanese tea ceremony and Zen Buddhism.
But I digress...
I'm a big fan of white tea (Chinese) from Fujian. it's been dried less, so there's even more goodies than in green tea.
Not sure about calm -- plenty of caffiene, but it certainly makes you more alive. There's a reason the British empire was built on tea imports.
I'll send some for 0.01BTC + p&p
November 19, 2013, 10:23:31 PM
Not sure about calm -- plenty of caffiene, but it certainly makes you more alive. There's a reason the British empire was built on tea imports.
I'll send some for 0.01BTC + p&p
I believe Mao was addicted to green tea and slimming pills - which explains the muddled thinking behind some of his decisions cf the great leap forward/cultural revolution
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