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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31890. (Read 26724328 times)

hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
My intention is to warn you guys to practice proper risk management because inevitably, even with a small investment, your Bitcoin allocation will be the main source of your wealth. Marginal utility of wealth dictates that it's more important to secure your first million than to make another.

I've seen it go down from 32 to 2 and it was a really bullish environment too until about 14. Don't fool yourself thinking it can't happen again today. That's just the nature of humans.

+1
I, for one, gotta say thanks for this comment, Blitz. I'm new to this forum but really appreciate your comments here-- I know that I certainly have ridiculously risky appetite, despite a fairly good knowledge (for a non-pro trader) of position sizing and risk allocation. Do I properly size my positions, do I use a trailing stop, do I take profits appropriately, and cut losses every time? Certainly, I feel like these are my weakest areas. Finding BTC is probably the hard part. Now that I'm here, I should really exert those controls and be patient.

Do you have any more suggestions on/about BTC risk management? (excuse me, as I haven't read back through the last 20 pps)

Cheers!
You're asking the right guy for advice.

Here's a few of his pretty good predictions back in july:

Goodbye, triple digits. See you 2015.

After this week, I'm not sure we will see triple digits in 2013 again.

This has never been a billion dollar market to begin with. Triple digit, billion, those are things of a faint past.

No more triple digits for 2013.

Noone buys the triple digit lie anymore.

Looks like MtGox is beginning to shake off its denial and join the ranks of the 80s. This is only the beginning.

What if the buyer is an established casino firm that wanted to get into the Bitcoin game? If that's the case, then they would've been accumulating beforehand and have been responsible for some of the buying pressure. This would now be gone, along with 350k coins released on the market.

I smell blood.


 Grin
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Why so mad, Kozi? Despite all that, I outperformed Bitcoin, and I didn't even mean to. Smiley

Like I said, I like trolling and being overly dramatic sometimes.
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 4775
diamond-handed zealot
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.

A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.

As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?

Everyone else are bulls? The bears are all over this forum today predicting their doom and gloom, even Blitz turned bear and is preaching 2011 all over again. Tongue

My straw poll index of
1) Number of new localbitcoin buyers pestering me.
2) Coinbase time of running out of coins for sale.  (though it seems there were enough sellers that they have been able to offer coins at times)

Suggests to me that there is still more new moneyflow in ahead, though short term is the domain of the whales and the sharks.  
Am only looking at week over week, and wouldn't call anything daily (nor would that matter to me as it takes longer than that to get cash to an exchange).
I gave up the TA chart analytics, algo writing and daytrading in the 90s as an activity that does not make the best use of my talents, but cherish the lessons from those long gone days, I made a lot of money for people that were a lot richer than I was (or will ever be).
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
My intention is to warn you guys to practice proper risk management because inevitably, even with a small investment, your Bitcoin allocation will be the main source of your wealth. Marginal utility of wealth dictates that it's more important to secure your first million than to make another.

I've seen it go down from 32 to 2 and it was a really bullish environment too until about 14. Don't fool yourself thinking it can't happen again today. That's just the nature of humans.

+1
I, for one, gotta say thanks for this comment, Blitz. I'm new to this forum but really appreciate your comments here-- I know that I certainly have ridiculously risky appetite, despite a fairly good knowledge (for a non-pro trader) of position sizing and risk allocation. Do I properly size my positions, do I use a trailing stop, do I take profits appropriately, and cut losses every time? Certainly, I feel like these are my weakest areas. Finding BTC is probably the hard part. Now that I'm here, I should really exert those controls and be patient.

Do you have any more suggestions on/about BTC risk management? (excuse me, as I haven't read back through the last 20 pps)

Cheers!
You're asking the right guy for advice.

Here's a few of his pretty good predictions back in july:

Goodbye, triple digits. See you 2015.

After this week, I'm not sure we will see triple digits in 2013 again.

This has never been a billion dollar market to begin with. Triple digit, billion, those are things of a faint past.

No more triple digits for 2013.

Noone buys the triple digit lie anymore.

Looks like MtGox is beginning to shake off its denial and join the ranks of the 80s. This is only the beginning.

What if the buyer is an established casino firm that wanted to get into the Bitcoin game? If that's the case, then they would've been accumulating beforehand and have been responsible for some of the buying pressure. This would now be gone, along with 350k coins released on the market.

I smell blood.
hero member
Activity: 980
Merit: 1001
That would be amazing. I still have some BTC but not like I used too. I sold all the way up but I kept a few here and there. Plus I still have a good chunk of casasius coins (for sale see link in signature, lol). I just want to see it succeed and I feel like these kinds of swings do more damage. That's why I'd rather see it crash back down sooner than later on these crazy rides.
How much of a premium and at what price did your 2011 ("casacius") coin go for if you don't mind me asking?

8BTC
hero member
Activity: 496
Merit: 500
Spanish Bitcoin trader
Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.
In Spanish, the words for "inversion" and "investment" are the same. Makes sense, because when making an investment you are giving away your money with no immediate benefit, hoping for more in the future. You are not buying what it is, but what you think it will be.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
I just turned 100% bull  Cheesy

No more fiat in my Bitstamp
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 4775
diamond-handed zealot
stick to your trade.


no kidding, took me too long to learn that, so much better since I stopped making losing trades...lol
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Craaaaazy rollercoaster.

Don't forget to sell on the way up. Or the newbies cry after the next bubble pop.


the next bubble to pop is America

LOL -> food stamp X bitcoin exchange! (coming soon!)  Wink haaaa
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1010

A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.

A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.

As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?


What about all the bulls that earn a paycheque in fiat?  

If your income is in dollars or euros, etc., it seems reasonable to allocate (say) 20% of your long-term-savings money to BTC.  This would add constant upwards price pressure.  A lot of bitcoiners are young: their BTC holdings in absolute terms will rise, despite bitcoin becoming a smaller and smaller % of their net worth.  
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
I believe BTC should be in the $150 range. There is nothing to support any higher of a price.

What makes you say that?

Because at this point there are a lot of exciting projects in the works for BTC. Key word in the works. One ATM and a letter from Bernake saying BTC is legit and we can't really regulate it doesn't make it worth $600. I am willing to place a value on the speculation of what could happen but until it does it's not.

Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.

How about if that company had developed a universal cure for cancer with apparently no side effects and just had to go through FDA approval and marketing?

I agree. Saying its "In the works" does not mean it shouldnt count.

Also, down we go?
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
I believe BTC should be in the $150 range. There is nothing to support any higher of a price.

What makes you say that?

Because at this point there are a lot of exciting projects in the works for BTC. Key word in the works. One ATM and a letter from Bernake saying BTC is legit and we can't really regulate it doesn't make it worth $600. I am willing to place a value on the speculation of what could happen but until it does it's not.

Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.

How about if that company had developed a universal cure for cancer with apparently no side effects and just had to go through FDA approval and marketing?
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.

A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.

As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?

Everyone else are bulls? The bears are all over this forum today predicting their doom and gloom, even Blitz turned bear and is preaching 2011 all over again. Tongue

~~~i'm a /\sharky i will devour anything in my path!  Cool chomp chomp
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
China doesn't like this rise.

Theyre still almost $700.. lol
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
Exchanges are obsolete. They're just trading on inertia.
Care to explain?

All you need is Bitcoin Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1038
Trusted Bitcoiner
China doesn't like this rise.

China  is the cause of this rise!

look they are trying to bottom
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
China doesn't like this rise.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 501
This bull trap? is lasting longer than I thought. I dont like it, im still in dirty fiat Sad

ya me too...

but #1 golden rule of trading, stick to your trade.


either way i make money so who cares.
Same here Come on pop already i am thincking about buying back with loss ;(
hero member
Activity: 894
Merit: 501
so the exchanges are gradually finding prices that are closer to one another. This means the west having this rise, and China kind of staying put. It does make the china market look like it's having a nice healthy stay at what might be its 'bottom', contrasting the west's apparent premature rise . . .
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