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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32191. (Read 26709922 times)

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.


I'm pretty sure the people who are the richest in the Bitcoin world are the ones who just held.

I second that. I've made quite a few BTC by trading during the bear market after the obvious bubble pop, but that's just an "impasse" in my usual strategy (buy & hold). There's a clear chance of increasing your stash when a bubble pops, that happened in 2011 and happened this year too. But 99% of the time buy&hold is a winner, and the only purpose of trading in my book is to increase one's BTC stash.

Additionally, most of the times I spent BTC I fucked up. I sold a few hundreds coins to buy ASIC miners, and I made back only 50% of them so far - with the increasing BTC/USD exchange rate noobs will keep throwing fiat to ASIC miners like there is no tomorrow, driving the difficulty crazy high just because they do not realize that 90% of the times is better to buy BTC directly. This has been historically true, like its historically true that the ones who first bought and never sold are doing better than anybody else.

One of the few investments in BTC that were good to me were LTC (bought at 0.002 and sold at 0.012) and MSC (bought from Exodus address, not realized profit but x10 so far), most of the others I screwed up (my "cRipple" investment lost 75% of its BTC value).

On the contrary, buying BTC has always been a GOOD decision. This is historically true. Nobody lost money by buy&hold so far. This is a hard cold fact. Personally, I've bought most between $10 and $20, but I also bought at $130ish - and it has always been a good choice. BTC never fails on you Wink
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.


I'm pretty sure the people who are the richest in the Bitcoin world are the ones who just held.

Yeah. I keep telling myself that.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.


I'm pretty sure the people who are the richest in the Bitcoin world are the ones who just held.
sr. member
Activity: 323
Merit: 251
The amount of coins on sale on the exchange is shrinking fast. Only 6k on sale on BTCChina, 7k on Bitstamp, 11k on Gox.

This is the "all time low" in terms of BTC on sale. Just think about how Avalon holds 65k coins in one address.

In my opinion is not a very good sign, it would be better for the trend to be fueled by new money in instead of scarcity of supply - just because the scarcity can be easily reversed by only one big holder.

I guess this is the nature of "penny stock market", and BTC behaves completely as a penny stock market.

Tighten your seat belts.
Thing is, more coins than ever are locked up for the time being and can't make it to the exchanges in the foreseeable future.

The FBI has 174.000 BTC and probably won't be able to sell them until after the case against Ulbricht

Bitcoin Investment Trust has 60.000+ BTC locked up that they are obliged to hold on to for their customers for probably at least a year (the number is based on the fact that they had 15.000.000 USD invested when the exchange rate was ~250 USD/BTC). This number will probably rise quite a bit in the coming months as they will buy more bitcoins to supply to new customers.

Possibly, the success of BIT will make other high profile individuals/companies imitate them and start buying up coins to start competing businesses. This would lead to additionally 10ks of coins being looked up for the time being. This is just speculation though, but a fairly reasonable assumption as far as I'm concerned.

You also have the Winklevii twins claiming they had 1%+ of all bitcoins in the beginning of the year waiting for their ETF. That's at least 110.000 BTC.

We also have Chamath Palihapitiya, ex Facebook-executive, who claimed to have 5.000.000 USD invested in BTC at the end of october. At the exchange rate back then, that would be 25.000+ BTC. He also said he was still looking to acquire more.

And there is a very high likelihood we have unknown high profile investors who have made private bets but hasn't said so officially. This is hard to quantify, but I belive this is at least a multiple of 10ks of bitcoins being locked up for the time being in anonymous rich investors' wallets.

If you add it all up, far more coins are being "on hold" right now, than ever before.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.


I think its going up too quickly, but I do not even consider selling before we double up again (I mean around $700). We entered parabolic? So we will probably keep going parabolic at least for a few days. Anyhow: the faster we go up, the sooner we will go down - as usual Wink
sr. member
Activity: 398
Merit: 250
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
the trajectory is pretty clear, to the moon! Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
My gut feeling says that 350ish is the short term top until next week or Sunday, and we're going to see some shakeouts between here and 300 before continuing up to 400.  I think the next couple of weeks with stick around 300-400.

Trying to make my first call Tongue

Based on your previous posts, we should do the opposite right?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
My gut feeling says that 350ish is the short term top until next week or Sunday, and we're going to see some shakeouts between here and 300 before continuing up to 400.  I think the next couple of weeks with stick around 300-400.

Trying to make my first call Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
Not a hint of fear until $280ish...

Oh wait, just 24 hours ago BTC was trade at $280 on Gox Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1030
Quote
[17:25:43] joesmoe: We are not showing any favoutism.  It is in our best interest to get them all fixed as soon as possible.  Cherrypicking which ones to fix would take much longer

The bold part is completely BS.

Can they explain why others with recent withdrawals only wait 24-36 hrs while some others have waited for 5 days! ?

You know how the saying goes, never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Can someone write a script so that when I sell BTC it simultaneously triggers a buy order for 100s of customers who each offer me a % of their profits?  I Manged to sell at the bottom of these mini corrections several times now over the last couple of days. Sad

hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Can someone write a script so that when I sell BTC it simultaneously triggers a buy order for 100s of customers who each offer me a % of their profits?  I Manged to sell at the bottom of these mini corrections several times now over the last couple of days. Sad

It took me months to learn how to deal with the bear shakeouts.

That being said it may not be a bad thing, I'd only recommend you don't try and correct for now and see if your move ends up being a good one instead of whittling away btc..
member
Activity: 107
Merit: 10
Can someone write a script so that when I sell BTC it simultaneously triggers a buy order for 100s of customers who each offer me a % of their profits?  I Manged to sell at the bottom of these mini corrections several times now over the last couple of days. Sad
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
any word on withdrawing btc?

Quote
[17:17:07] Thank you everyone for being patient and sorry for any inconvienience
[17:20:03] 48 hours i've been waiting now
[17:20:37] joesmoe: For a btc withdrawal?
[17:20:38] go away joe u crybaby
[17:21:05] SarahCoinBit yes
[17:21:55] 2013/11/07
[17:21:55] 01:41:54
[17:21:56] withdraw      120.00000000 BTC   0.75259713 BTC
[17:21:57] Bitcoin withdraw to 1J5bpFfpHavNyyJtVu4AqRqjZSQjA5dxKD
[17:22:00] joesmoe: We are trying to resolve it as fast as possible, sorry for the delay
[17:22:15] also have other transfers missing as well, but thats the oldest and
[17:22:18] biggest thats missing
[17:22:44] joesmoe: Sorry, they are going through but it's taking time to fix each one
[17:23:14] PaulB0 [[email protected]] has quit IRC: Read error: Connection reset by peer
[17:23:39] Anduck [~Anduck@unaffiliated/anduck] has quit IRC: Ping timeout: 264 seconds
[17:23:57] maybe they could fix them in priority of size?
[17:24:08] no
[17:24:12] would be most logical in my opinion to take care of the more profitable traders before the less profitable ones
[17:24:18] no
[17:24:47] obviously a dev's time is limited, and fixing things for larger transactions thus is more profitable in the long run fox gox
[17:24:59] Should have to wait days for a 120 BTC transactions
[17:25:14] should not*
[17:25:19] Xialla: How long u been waiting?
[17:25:43] joesmoe: We are not showing any favoutism.  It is in our best interest to get them all fixed as soon as possible.  Cherrypicking which ones to fix would take much longer
[17:26:09] funny because i notice most of the others who were waiting for multiple hundred BTC withdraws are no longer waiting, yet here I am...
[17:26:14] joesmoe: I'm very sorry you have had to wait

The bold part is completely BS.

Can they explain why others with recent withdrawals only wait 24-36 hrs while some others have waited for 5 days! ?

I also notice smaller amounts are somehow "fixed".... sooner.

Fixing problems should be in order of the age of support ticket, not just small amounts that they can "fix" now. This is real regarding "fractional reserve"
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