Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32307. (Read 26410480 times)

Thanks for the info, helps me to postulate here a bit more.

Well, it is becoming a much bigger gamble for miners. Their rigs will have no long term resale value as long as we have a very high or increasing difficulty. (Not to mention that there is talk of integrating Scrypt or a combination in the future, but that is just an unknown at this point.) I was close to ordering a Bitfury Rig (25Gh) for August delivery but I waited a few hours too long. 25Gh in August would have been good, but 25Gh for the same price in October would probably be bad and also very very risky. I still have a 7Gh on order from BFL but don't expect it till October, how do you think I feel? LOL  I knew this when I ordered it though and honestly, a big part of the order is I think it will be worth more in 10 years than now.     I do hope they allow upgrades (more) as the shipping date gets closer as the difficulty is going up and they will just have a lot of cancelled orders to deal with.

I do think quite a few of the miners have deep pockets as the cost of these rigs is getting higher and higher, so perhaps for some of them they will just hold ("hoard" is not appropriate here imo.)

3600 Coins are mined a day (25 per block, block=10 minutes=150hrX24=3600 per day) and that doesn't sound like too many coins (as long as we are growing). We have to look at the daily volume and find a reasonable percentage range that these coins will make up of it. So, let's say an average daily volume of 25,000, and into that we have to factor in 3600. Now, how many of those 3600 coins are sold daily into 25,000? If all are sold (which is not the case) we are talking only 14% and I think the market can absorb that. But, how much of that volume is day trading? Most of it? That changes things. What the market can't absorb is dumping by existing holders (from mining). Anyway, what is the true effect of potential sales here?...

just look on your chart.

we are already moving sideways. 100 never really broke even though whales tried a couple times.

this baby is going down soon but keep listening on this Ms.Market-want-orgasms dude.

If the invested funds was taken from BTC savings they want BTC back, not FIAT.

It looks like that is before us quite an interesting moment.

Break Up or Down or side (this is similar to Down if top left) ?

Haha you must be new here. Everything went as expected, apart from everything that went wrong ofcourse.
Did you miss the part where he turned out to be the biggest clown of this part of the forum?
Letting monkeys throw darts will give you a better chance of success than listening to this delusional joker.

He really must be totally delusional beyond help as he's posting here how everything is going according to plan while he turned out to be a complete failure just a few days ago.
Sad really.

I wonder about when difficulty spikes will many people turn their ASICS toward mining SHA based altcoins like PPC and TRC as they can no longer compete with the professional farms.

Agree with the thrust of what will probably pan out. However, there is no account for the fact that the new ASIC players/miners are increasingly made up of shareholding companies that will be re/distributing those accumulated btc into dividends, that will be disseminated to thousands of shareholders.

Its the re-distribution thats key here, not the amounts, per-say.

I'm a miner myself, and people in here doesn't not understand what a deep change in the game are ASICs. With GPUs, you could buy a $500 set-up and mine to hoard, as the investment was negligible and you could always sell your GPUs to gamers, "recouping your costs" was no big deal and no priority, it was a hobbyist occupation for 95% of the miners.

Now, the only purpose of those $2k, $4k, $7k ASIC rigs is to mine Bitcoin, and maaaany people didn't throw at those machines only "play money". Professional operations with the only purpose of generating PROFIT are being build up. Yes, many are still Bitcoin believers so they will hoard, but after they paid for their costs. And their aggregate costs are huge. BFL has millions of $ in preorders not shipped yet. KnC has millions of $ in preorders, there are millions of $ in Avalon chips, Bitfury machines and whatnot...

Now the very few ASIC miners (mostly Avalon miners, they are just a few hundred individuals) have enjoyed very healthy profits. They paid for their machines in a few days, with a few coins. But the profitability is declining VERY HARD, so more coins will have to be sold by the miners to recoup their hardware costs, which are denominated in FIAT.

Many seem to hide their heads in the ground, but the hard fact is that 10s of millions of $ have been invested in machines which only use is to mine BTC, and those 10s of millions of $ in mining rigs are a cost that miners are willing to recoup ASAP.

Some in here say "well, the BTC/USD will be higher, and miners will have to sell less coins to recover their costs". That's a logical fallacy, because the higher is going to be the BTC/USD, the more people will invest in mining hardware, making the amount of generated coins more distributed and in fewer quantity per individual miner/operation, thus the 3,600BTC generated per day will be probably dumped almost immediately, at least during the next few months, until the mining gold-rush is over and stabilizes, and the miners that are entering the ASIC game pay for their investment.

This should help: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gStochRSIzi2gRSIzi3gMACDzv

basically he's saying we are currently in a bullish market and a good prediction at least for the next few days is that prices will continue to rise.

what is going to happen is that the new miners will make less bitcoins per GH, of that we can be sure.

This is an interesting point I've been wondering about lately. I also believe they mentioned this on "Let's Talk Bitcoin" in the last week. What is going to happen with so many new mining rigs getting out there? The GPU miners will all off, almost there now.

I do wonder though, how many of these miners are just going to sit on their mined coins. The thing is, if many expect a downward movement in the price, then why not sell some while you can???
And what about all those coins already mined? Hmmmmm

Personally, I would probably sit on the coins, unless I was desperate for cash. Something about "owning" coins I've mined.

I feel like the price naturally wants to go down as BTC is well over priced at the moment. Whales are keeping it artificially high with big market orders to ware down other people's confidence that the price is going to go back down. And it seems to be working at least on this thread, if you look back just a few days everyone still thought it was going to go down.

They should stop with the big market orders, every additional time they push it up over $100 the $100 mark becomes less effective to convince the weak to buy in. If it was going to spike up it would have happened already

*hint*daily chart *hint*

The short term chart does look like there may be a break out. There is a rising triangle, which is pretty bullish.

I'm still not convinced that the breakout will last, but I've bought a chunk of BTC again and may sell into the breakout, should it occur.

[It is also painful not holding much BTC. Holding so much fiat feels... dirty!]

My uneducated first point would be look at the crash from 266 - it's a game of chicken ie who will pull the market trigger first

maybe you explain why it has to change. If the price of bitcoin is higher then they need to sell less for the same amount of cash. And if the price is rising even asic miners will prefer to wait instead of sell now.

any advice for a bull turned bear looking on in horror as the train left him at 66?