Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32334. (Read 26469532 times)

You'd do better to send it to Exante.  They are probably the best at getting trades performed in bitcoin with minimal market movement.

Whale MO:

Market can't take that and the risk is too high.  You'd start by cracking through a few ask walls (because you know your demand is going to push up the price so you might as well be the one that benefits) and then proceed by transferring a few million USD worth a week (descending as the market thins out) and buying on multiple exchanges simultaneously whenever reasonable ask walls start to build up.  You'd be willing to buy on exchanges that are 10-20% higher than others because you know your purchases alone will drive supply/demand curve enough so a 10% premium will be over taken in a week or 2, if that is where the liquidity is.

By transferring weekly, you never have too much value on the exchange and you eat the vertical portion of the ask curve, which gets you the most coins without driving the price much (you want to keep the price low for next week).  You'd buy BTC right away to minimize the time $ is on the exchange... so early in the week is likely.

If you have left over $ for the week -- that is, there weren't enough asks, you put up a wall maybe halfway back to entice big sellers to move BTC onto the exchange (its fine if they don't sell into your wall.  if its put up as an ask, you'll get it next week).  If you spent your weekly transfer, then no walls and no activity for a week -- to let the price drop down as far as it will go.  This is a better choice for a "whale" than putting up an ask wall b/c bitcoin is now officially $, the exchange knows who you are, and you have no interest in being prosecuted for market manipulation over maybe 5%.  And especially when it puts your hard-won BTC at risk of purchase by a surfacing whale.


Pump MO:

If you were "pumping", you are doing it differently; you want to maximize slippage. So you'd buy in much bigger gulps -- the further you push along the curve the further your dollar pushes up the BTC price.  Possibly even right after someone else's big buy (remember a bit of a loss in buys don't matter much -- if you are pumping you have a much bigger stash you are prepping to sell)  And you'd probably do it on one exchange only, relying on arb and trending bots to buy up the others.  Pumping like this would require a protective bid wall near your final price to psychologically cement in the new price.  You would never leave an ask wall half bought, there's no pump for your buck.  You'd put a bid wall up safely away from it and hope other eat into it while you transfer more $.  And when you did eat it, it would be the wall + the flat behind it...



hmm... which do you see last few weeks?

Sorry, I misinterpreted your meaning. Each recent substantial move has been one market buy, yes I agree. It's not likely that each substantial move over the past month has been caused by the same buyer though. I think it's likely that these are just separate individuals with a few $k to invest (especially at the moment, given the low market depth, since it only takes a few $k to move the price substantially i.e. by $6 or $7 as happened in the past hour).

I meant it more funny like, can you imagine your gox account saying 1 billion. :-)

I mean .. the big moves are one market buy.. you guys are telling me multiple traders are doing these market buys at the exact same time?

Ok. 

You're assuming there's just one individual making every purchase over the last month???

Yes because there is certainly only one trader on this market.

Look at the charts over the past month. A pattern is becoming obvious. Someone wants in, at any cost.

They're trying not to push the price up too much, but the moment it simmers down a bit they push it right back up just under 150 so as not to induce panic buying. Some whale is building a position as aggressively as their caution will allow. It looks like they have a whole lot more to move. We are certainly not yet past the days where one whale trying to get in can double or triple the price. In fact, a true Great White could push it much higher than that. Who can say how far this will go? It's an open-ended proposition.

Ok so whale buys up coins from 143-148 and then puts a 1k ask wall at 147

Please explain how this is a real market based on fundamentals and not panic buyer manipulators

Frozenlock?

With todays exchange rate a sell order at 85£ would show up at 132.0985 * 1,025 = 135.4009625 in the USD market.

Gox could have used an exchange rate so the order showed up above 136 USD.

Well read my post more closely and then you'll notice i said that the market (eg mtgox) is not liquid enough for this kind of purchase. Only a professional market with tons of liquidity would allow this kind of money to move in.

Who would you even SEND a billion dollars to if you wanted to buy that much bitcoin? Gox? You'd log into your gox account and it would say 1,000,000,000? And you would click "Market order"? Not happening. Not now, probably never on gox.

The front page of the Mt.Gox website states that it is "the only multi-currency Bitcoin trading platform where you can trade with the entire world in your local currency."

Unless they're deceiving us 

No, you are wrong.

I'm sorry that's just not true they're different markets, you're thinking about funding I think

Edit: Please explain how on the jump from 130-140+ I was able to buy in fully with my gbp holdings @ 85£ (131$) while the USD market was already at 136$ for a few mins?

Well i can imagine people having huge losses (or wins, but rather the former i think) using these bot strategies. After all, nobody knows what's going to happen next. All you can do is bet. Yes there are some indicators but markets love to disappoint.

It works like this.

In my example 1 EURO = 1.50 USD and Mt.Gox adds a 2.5% exchange fee between currenies.

I place a ask order @ 12.00 USD. This order will also show up at 8.2 EURO. (12 / 1.5 * 1.025)
I place a bid order @ 11.50 USD. This order will also show up at 7.475 EURO. (11.5 / 1.5 * 0.975)

When most orders are placed in USD, it will give a bigger spread at the EURO market because of the 2.5% exchange fee.


If I then place a ask order @ 8.40 EURO, it will show up at 12.915 USD. (8.40 * 1.5 * 1.025)


It's the same orders and the same actors on all Gox markets.

It's not the same market.

And yes, there are bots on EUR and GBP markets that follow strictly fast movements of USD markets because volume is so low on those they would always be behind on price otherwise.