Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32405. (Read 26609663 times)

look at this tx graph  https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

the # of processed tx is a proxy for utility, earlier this year we got rid of dust tx and you could see the decrease, and now an increase which means that some new value has been brought in but we are not talking 10X yet. in the last bubble the magnitudinal (10x) tx increase preceded the massive (10x) price range shift

If people are hoarding, it is because they believe that the value is higher than the current trading price, no?

 

ty;dr;

say bye bye to 200 

But so much has changed.

unfortunately what is happening right now is price going up due to lack of supply due to hoarding, not any new magnitudinal shift in utility that has come online with btc business in the last 3 weeks. look at the tx graph it has not shifted since last year.

people who got paid in btc a few years ago are sitting on thousands, some of them are not providing any value to the system especially by not circulating the btc they have.  they could easily take those coins and invest them into btc businesses or people to write off their massive profits but instead they are hoarding for various reasons (I realize some people didnt declare this income the first couple years and are in a weird position...).  that is not healthy.

i don't recall who it was but one of the dev's once said that there would be something like 5 (or 7?) btc bubbles.  market adoption driven bubbles should happen in the first 2 and 3 stage (mass market adoption, final bubble) of market adoption. there is probably some academic studies i have read on this but i dont recall offhand

my personal opinion is that bubbles should be spaced out longer than the time period between the last 2 bubbles as it takes longer for new innovations to bring about new growth curves.  the time period between the last 2 bubbles was about 21 months.  it is been only 6 months and people are already expecting another bubble event...  

so when are the news outlets going to start picking this up
we need some new blood coming in

Bears will be burned, but remember that they are the only thing keeping this from overshooting too far to the upside.  When we overshoot, we correct much harder and then the bears have a field day (or month, or year).

youre a bear if you think market will drop. that doesnt mean that youre getting together with all your bear friends and "irrationally" driving the market down (any more than bulls are "irrational" fur pushing price up). that would never happen anyway. anytime there is a reversal, bears will come out.

And that's why I run my market making it even though at times like this I slowly bleed coins.  Sure , I could shut it off, but then the rally would get unsustainable more quickly.

Bear trap? That was a suprise =D

No lag at all IMHO?

15 minute lag?

well i don't daytrade but i think it is good that people do, it provides liquidity

if every just kept their btc under their mattress (print out of private key), then there would be no chance for anyone new to get their hands on some

Nicely put.

Well said.

It's certainly possible to make additional profit trading, and despite the many losers there are always some winners. It seems to me, though, that the average person would be satisfied with Bitcoin-level annual gains if they truly believed it had a future, or if they fully understood and internalized the idea that Bitcoin is a heavily asymmetric bet. If you believe Bitcoin has a good chance of going mainstream, you believe you've been privileged to identify the investment opportunity of the century in the form of simply buying and holding.

Of course "you can always have more," but is it really that people are so easily looking this gift horse in the mouth, or is it something else? It seems to me that such a ready desire to increase the risk is more a sign of not really grasping Bitcoin's potential. It seems the mentality is to "get while the getting's good" because Bitcoin may not work out. I suppose everyone's had that thought at some point: "Bitcoin may eventually get squashed out of existence by governments or hackers, but I bet I can ride this train for one or two big jumps and cash out enough to live on." With that fearful mindset it becomes appealing to try to boost your gains since you don't know if you intend to see where this ride goes, and you don't really know if you believe it could ever reach $10,000 or $100,000 per coin.

And really, that's fine. Not everyone is a visionary, and this isn't a religion. Moreover, some bitcoin holders are experienced traders and would only risk small portions of their stash. But the tendency for so many people to so readily engage in notoriously treacherous trading trying to catch price movements seems like it is a problem of lack of education or thought about Bitcoin's potential, including perhaps deep understanding of economics and technology adoption and otherwise how deeply broken the establishment systems are and what circumnavigating them would mean for the global standard of living.

up 35% is very respectable.

people need to make their own decisions, personally sticking to a strategy seems to work well.

for example my strategy is buying more when there is a massive dump, which only happens every once in a while - unfortunately i missed the SR dump, thought it would go lower

Now this is the GOX I remember.

oups bear trap

Funny bears.