Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32409.

TERA

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Quote from: spooderman on October 22, 2013, 06:12:30 AM

Quote from: ag@th0s on October 22, 2013, 06:11:14 AM

Bit of a Dilemma. Obviously I'm a pretty shit trader - but checking my trading sheet, if I had simply bought BTC at the time I moved money into Stamp since May - I would have bought at 101 - 120 and 125 and right now I would have nearly double the coins that I do having traded for 5 months! 5 months of stress just to break even

So having just gone back in at $190 - what to do?

Panic and sell when it crashes to 150?

seriously though....I lost 5 btc day trading and decided never to do it again. Long is the way forward.

I think the trick is to do it during the huge flash crash and after a bear market begins. Trying to do it during this exponential rise I have found to be futile.

The only problem is trying to know when the crash will be...

spooderman

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Quote from: ag@th0s on October 22, 2013, 06:11:14 AM

Bit of a Dilemma. Obviously I'm a pretty shit trader - but checking my trading sheet, if I had simply bought BTC at the time I moved money into Stamp since May - I would have bought at 101 - 120 and 125 and right now I would have nearly double the coins that I do having traded for 5 months! 5 months of stress just to break even

So having just gone back in at $190 - what to do?

Panic and sell when it crashes to 150?

seriously though....I lost 5 btc day trading and decided never to do it again. Long is the way forward.

Zangelbert Bingledack

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^ I think you answered your own question Wink

In case it's still not clear: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w

ag@th0s

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Bit of a Dilemma. Obviously I'm a pretty shit trader - but checking my trading sheet, if I had simply bought BTC at the time I moved money into Stamp since May - I would have bought at 101 - 120 and 125 and right now I would have nearly double the coins that I do having traded for 5 months! 5 months of stress just to break even

So having just gone back in at $190 - what to do?

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Well, that's a government-subsidized bubble. If the Chinese government is backing Bitcoin, of course all bets are off. We are going to Pluto.

NewLiberty

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Gresham's Lawyer

China can blow this bubble pretty big.
We have seen nothing yet.
If even a little of the air in their housing bubble looks to find its way into Bitcoin, then this is just the froth.

jeezy

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Quote from: spooderman on October 22, 2013, 05:06:42 AM

Anyone here teach mandarin?

translate.google.com, you can also change it to English

spooderman

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 22, 2013, 04:44:17 AM

The sting of $266 is still relatively fresh (about 4 times as fresh as the sting of $32, though that sting was much worse as price slid slowly to 1/16th and stayed very low instead of just a flash-crash to 1/5th and consolidation around 1/2).

However, if we trust zhangweiwu's analysis this thing could go huge for a few days then crash in China, taking the rest of the world along for the ride. All just a side show along the exponential highway to $10,000 and beyond.

This recent price action reminds me of early March, so maybe we consolidate for a week around $200, double a couple of times to like $800, crash to $250-300, then consolidate for a few months in the $500+ range. But of course history won't repeat so exactly.

Anyone here teach mandarin?

Bitcopia

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Looks like I'm staying up all night to watch this... Damn it just hurry up and put in a huge bid will at $200 so I can go to sleep!

Zangelbert Bingledack

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The sting of $266 is still relatively fresh (about 4 times as fresh as the sting of $32, though that sting was much worse as price slid slowly to 1/16th and stayed very low instead of just a flash-crash to 1/5th and consolidation around 1/2).

However, if we trust zhangweiwu's analysis this thing could go huge for a few days then crash in China, taking the rest of the world along for the ride. All just a side show along the exponential highway to $10,000 and beyond.

This recent price action reminds me of early March, so maybe we consolidate for a week around $200, double a couple of times to like $800, crash to $250-300, then consolidate for a few months in the $500+ range. But of course history won't repeat so exactly.

Bitcopia

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Quote from: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on October 22, 2013, 04:28:19 AM

Quote from: w00dy on October 22, 2013, 04:11:57 AM

this is no good.... at all... WAY WAY too fast going up.

It would be nice for the chart to just consolidate around this level for a few weeks. But we as already know, Bitcoin does what it wants...and there will be a new wave of press coverage in the next 48hs which could add more fuel to the fire.

It seemed impossible just a few weeks ago, but 266 is now relatively close and a likely target, my guess is that more meaningful resistance (from scared Westerners) will come in as we approach that number.

This would seem rational, but if you look at every previous bubble, it inflates well beyond its predecessor.

EDIT: And crashed to a much higher point. $500 crash to $350 isn't unrealistic...

n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU

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Quote from: w00dy on October 22, 2013, 04:11:57 AM

this is no good.... at all... WAY WAY too fast going up.

It would be nice for the chart to just consolidate around this level for a few weeks. But we as already know, Bitcoin does what it wants...and there will be a new wave of press coverage in the next 48hs which could add more fuel to the fire.

It seemed impossible just a few weeks ago, but 266 is now relatively close and a likely target, my guess is that more meaningful resistance (from once-bitten Westerners) will come in as we approach that number.

thoughtfan

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 22, 2013, 03:43:49 AM

Quote from: Corelianer on October 22, 2013, 03:39:19 AM

The price is extremely volatile

How can it not be volatile when it grows this fast? That's the thing, slow steady exponential growth may happen for other technologies, but with Bitcoin there is actual money on the line for everyone, so it follows human psychology and has mini-manias where it gets overheated then smarter people step in and correct it. With Bitcoin you have to up your tolerance for volatility to match the speed at which the price is moving.

Thank you. You just eloquently described what I've been thinking for months now. Trying to compare bitcoin price to technology adoption curves is flawed for the very reason you point out. If we take an extreme weighted weekly average (below for example WMA 60) it's a fairly smooth line but as you say, with price more closely aligned with confidence than with adoption, fits and starts and crazy rallies followed by sharp corrections are I would venture almost inevitable.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: johnyj on October 22, 2013, 04:24:24 AM

$200 is the new $20, next bubble projection $2000

yeah or more closer to $2500

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: w00dy on October 22, 2013, 04:11:57 AM

this is no good.... at all... WAY WAY too fast going up.

You mean like when we went from $10 to $20 in Jan to Feb this year?

Hardly...rocket time... Grin

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

$200 is the new $20, next bubble projection $2000

Bitcopia

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Quote from: only on October 22, 2013, 04:14:15 AM

Quote from: Bitcopia on October 22, 2013, 03:57:08 AM

Sold half of my coins off into the SR panic, glad I came to terms with my loss and bought back in at $150(Gox). This thing is getting ready for take off.

At what price did you sell when SR went to shit?

Let's just say I took about an 8% loss on my total holdings of BTC Sad

only

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Dutyfree.io – defying tobacco taxes since 2009.

Quote from: Bitcopia on October 22, 2013, 03:57:08 AM

Sold half of my coins off into the SR panic, glad I came to terms with my loss and bought back in at $150(Gox). This thing is getting ready for take off.

At what price did you sell when SR went to shit?

w00dy

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this is no good.... at all... WAY WAY too fast going up.

wopwop

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Quote from: Bitcopia on October 22, 2013, 04:05:59 AM

Quote from: alexout on October 22, 2013, 03:56:23 AM

What are ppls plans on when to sell at the exchanges? I was thinking sell
Some off at 197. But it went to 194 at bit stamp and back
Down.

Now is probably not a good time to sell, so long as history repeats itself. We've had much stronger rallies on much less news and much smaller global reach.

+1 you seem to know what you are talking about

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