Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32598.

derpinheimer

legendary

Activity: 896

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Quote from: coolbeans94 on September 09, 2013, 09:30:49 PM

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000 instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine. Shocked

We haven't seen nothing yet! If you think April was volatile, just wait... Roll Eyes

I'm sure it will happen again.

You're a little confused if you think 20 mill would take the price over 1000.

Our friendly whale who put in about 4 mill brought the price up from $1XX to $148.90. And thats with a few more million from other people. So, 8 mill -> $40

But 20 mill [and lets say, 40 mill] -> +900? Dont think so.

Of course if your friend grandma is braindead and clicks market order 20millUSD, then yes, around 10kUSD/BTC spike.

There must be a reason most mega-wealthy people have bothered to put a couple million into bitcoin.

byronbb

legendary

Activity: 1414

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HODL OR DIE

Quote from: chriswilmer on September 09, 2013, 09:39:27 PM

Quote from: coolbeans94 on September 09, 2013, 09:30:49 PM

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000 instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine. Shocked

We haven't seen nothing yet! If you think April was volatile, just wait... Roll Eyes

I'm sure it will happen again.

Yeah, the "time bomb" model of bitcoin is the one I subscribe too.

That's why I laugh at the bears. Bitcoin as concept is only becoming more and more mature, the technology is incredible and the pace at which it has matured so quickly with ASIC is incredible. If bitcoin goes 20 years it will have impacts on POWER technology.

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

chriswilmer

legendary

Activity: 1008

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Quote from: coolbeans94 on September 09, 2013, 09:30:49 PM

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000 instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine. Shocked

We haven't seen nothing yet! If you think April was volatile, just wait... Roll Eyes

I'm sure it will happen again.

Yeah, the "time bomb" model of bitcoin is the one I subscribe too.

coolbeans94

hero member

Activity: 613

Merit: 500

Mintcoin: Get some

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000 instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine. Shocked

We haven't seen nothing yet! If you think April was volatile, just wait... Roll Eyes

I'm sure it will happen again.

derpinheimer

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: thezerg on September 09, 2013, 08:38:34 PM

Quote from: ScrapOfCat on September 09, 2013, 05:10:48 PM

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay. How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down. Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price. I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week. That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time. The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening. This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price. He put it near the money. HE WANTED it to be eaten. He WANTS coins.

The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week. He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down. This is the behavior of a real long term investor...

Right now, I think it is very risky to sell. But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment. There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand.

What do you mean 135 was his average price? It wasnt. It was more like 132. A bid wall at the top of your market order, when moving the price that much, doesnt make sense. Doesnt mean it was manipulated or anything, just that he would have gotten sold into at 134, 133, and probably even 130.

ChartBuddy

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thezerg

legendary

Activity: 1246

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Quote from: ScrapOfCat on September 09, 2013, 05:10:48 PM

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay. How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down. Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price. I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week. That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time. The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening. This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price. He put it near the money. HE WANTED it to be eaten. He WANTS coins.

The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week. He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down. This is the behavior of a real long term investor...

Right now, I think it is very risky to sell. But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment. There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand.

thezerg

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1010

Quote from: tripper22 on September 09, 2013, 05:58:01 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 04:33:28 PM

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.

Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.

I am tired of your bs. You are a real ray of sunshine and consistenty wrong. Do you ever grow tired of posting your negative garbage in this forum? Get out of your basement and talk to real people, try to develop positive relationships. You will be a much happier person in the long run. Welcome to ignore (my first).

I shouldn't feed the trolls. My bad.

You don't understand. This is massively bullish... only way BTC volumes could be that low is if the price was extremely high! Grin

Loozik

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

Born to chew bubble gum and kick ass

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 04:33:28 PM

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop!

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 04:33:28 PM

Gox will still maintain the lead [...]

unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months.

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

Quote from: Miz4r on September 09, 2013, 07:23:33 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 06:24:31 PM

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

There's many examples of people here who made a good call once and then thought they were prophets everyone should worship like a God. Many of them then proceeded to make a completely false prediction and were never heard of again. Tongue

yet here i remain, the most triumphant of profits

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 06:24:31 PM

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

There's many examples of people here who made a good call once and then thought they were prophets everyone should worship like a God. Many of them then proceeded to make a completely false prediction and were never heard of again. Tongue

telemaco

sr. member

Activity: 371

Merit: 250

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 06:52:22 PM

Quote from: telemaco on September 09, 2013, 06:49:09 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 06:24:31 PM

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

I think it would help if you could rotate your picture to the right when sideways and upside/downside when needed.

It is quite graphical and easy to understand. You don't have to move now, since you say that it will go down.

I need as is all the time, to ward off Jaroslaw and his minions

I understand your concerns but please consider it for next bullish market. A garlic collar could do wonders against jaroslaw

I would definetely put a lot of attention to your rotations.

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

Quote from: telemaco on September 09, 2013, 06:49:09 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 06:24:31 PM

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

I think it would help if you could rotate your picture to the right when sideways and upside/downside when needed.

It is quite graphical and easy to understand. You don't have to move now, since you say that it will go down.

I need as is all the time, to ward off Jaroslaw and his minions

telemaco

sr. member

Activity: 371

Merit: 250

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 06:24:31 PM

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

I think it would help if you could rotate your picture to the right when sideways and upside/downside when needed.

It is quite graphical and easy to understand. You don't have to move now, since you say that it will go down unless you want to use your tie as the arrow.

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: tripper22 on September 09, 2013, 05:58:01 PM

I am tired of your bs. You are a real ray of sunshine and consistenty wrong. Do you ever grow tired of posting your negative garbage in this forum? Get out of your basement and talk to real people, try to develop positive relationships. You will be a much happier person in the long run. Welcome to ignore (my first).

I shouldn't feed the trolls. My bad.

I really don't think it is healthy to get angry about jaroslaw or any of his permutations. He has the low-effort trolling perfected to a T.

tripper22

full member

Activity: 188

Merit: 100

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 04:33:28 PM

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.

Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.

I am tired of your bs. You are a real ray of sunshine and consistenty wrong. Do you ever grow tired of posting your negative garbage in this forum? Get out of your basement and talk to real people, try to develop positive relationships. You will be a much happier person in the long run. Welcome to ignore (my first).

I shouldn't feed the trolls. My bad.

telemaco

sr. member

Activity: 371

Merit: 250

Quote from: Walsoraj on September 09, 2013, 04:33:28 PM

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.

Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.

Prediction 3: Bitcoiners will die filling taxes. If one big whale wants to buy 1000 BTC, will need to do it in more than 10 different exchanges or suffer huge slippage. Many whales will die by accident next year when a sudden ton of paper falls over them filling taxes. Actually Bitcoin-QT client should include itself an exchange webserver and a bank account text box in the webpage.

Now seriously.

Exchanges are opening all over the world and some are designed as P2P, so it will be hard to put restrictions on that. There might be coming an arbitrage paradise for those willing to invest their time one APIs and their everchanging nature.

prophetx

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1010

he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: ScrapOfCat on September 09, 2013, 05:10:48 PM

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay. How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down. Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price. I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

crap i'm out

seriously i love your technical analysis Wink

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