Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32602. (Read 26470714 times)
July 16, 2013, 02:01:53 PM
July 16, 2013, 01:53:54 PM
Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.
This.
July 16, 2013, 01:53:37 PM
Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?
XBT, BTC, Ƀ, these are all the same thing and you should understand them. The one that gets used most, will win in every day life. Some argue that XBT will win as the rule for non-governmental money is X… like in XAG and XAU.
My fav is Ƀ as it's easily typed once you know the code ctrl-u + 243. BTC is good, too. XBT it will be if the others insist in it. Just be easy with whatever and please don't insist in your choice being the best. Time will tell.
July 16, 2013, 01:44:59 PM
Most of GPU miners didn't want ROI as soon as possible, as I explained earlier - they counted on reselling their GPUs, and they were mostly hobbyist. But I'm a miner myself, I know a lot of miners, I've seen in first person who are the customers of companies like KnC and how much they are spending, and you have to understand that this last media bubble exposed Bitcoin to a lot of new and uneducated people who run profit calculators at current difficulty (without having their miners yet), they do not even understand that difficulty is growing exponentially, and at the end of the day there is a "gold rush" in which a lot of new people is entering mining because they think they will get rich quick... So we have now a) a lot of individuals investing money they cannot afford to lose on BTC miners, and as you surely know there is a "get-rich-quick" feeling on BTC - they think they will recoup their investment FAST, and this is why they are putting in this game more money they should; b) there are more and more "professional" miners that are investing money in mining with the only intention of generating profit - they will run their operations as a business. That people has to pay for huge electricity costs, renting of industrial places where they will host their operations, etc. etc. etc. A lot of fiat expenses to cover.
During the GPU era, I rarely saw a) and b) miners, most were small-time hobbyist, running their rigs in their bedrooms. During this change to ASIC, I'm seeing a lot of both a) and b). This people needs to recoup fiat ASAP.
What a lot of rubbish. You haven't seen anything, you're just a bear and you've been jumping on bearish reasonings for ages.
In the GPU era, there was a ton of people buy dozens of graphics cards looking for ROI, just like there is now.
Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.
What is of interest, though is that, despite bitstamp being easier to deal with than btc-e, btc-e is 4 dollars below bitstamp. And thats because exchanges with lower trading volumes, like btc-e are easier to manipulate. This was exactly what used to happen when MtGox went down on DDOS, there were absolutely massive collapses in prices and they successfully collected the spoils when MtGox would reopen.
July 16, 2013, 01:44:03 PM
Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?
July 16, 2013, 01:33:15 PM
problem is, allot of those miners won't get ROI for many months. Knowing this, I would expect most (except for those who took out loans) to choose to wait for higher prices before getting their fiat back.
Exactly, I dont see why on this forums people seem to think that miners want to get ROI as soon as possible. I think 90% of them will just mine and hoard, for years
Well, if the price gets high, it would make sense to sell to lock in profits. But if that's what people were doing, the bubble would not have been quite so crazy.
I'm sure you know the bubble started more or less when block reward halved, which was a moment when nobody had ASICs yet, 99% of the network were GPU and FPGA miners... Those already had their rigs paid off long ago (no new GPU and FPGA miners for a while because everybody was expecting ASICs since last summer), so as soon as they saw their proceeds halved they started to hold like mofos, creating scarcity of coins, which made the price to grow - the growing price attracted speculators, speculators bought driving the price high, the media started to run stories about how Bitcoin price was growing, which attracted more speculators, etc... Wash rinse and repeat, speculative bubble in its purest form.
This cycle is about to invert when ASICs will be widespread. Same thing happened in 2011 with GPUS.
You really think people took loans to buy ASICs? I bet you most asic owners are early adopters from GPU times.
I surely don't know what's the %, but I surely know there are a lot of newcomers spending all their fiat savings (tens of k's of $) in miners because they think they will break even in one month and then they will have a x10 ROI in the first year... Loan or no loan I don't know, but you can be sure they are throwing at this more money they can afford to lose because they think this is a "no brainer" and they do not want to "miss the train".
I know for sure because I've been meeting/discussing with a lot of guys like that since March, both in cyber and meatspace.
There will be a lot of pain for miners very soon, you will see.
What I have learned from observation is most miners save the XBT, some spend X% and a few triad with X% but the majority are saved.
ASICMiner is a new type of miner they get about 900 coins a day and those coins go to "investors" not miners. (The new dollar extraction)
Not much Fiat is entering the system to buy ASIC's the ASIC suppliers who are delivering are charging XBT, and there is a long ROI on those purchases up to 3 years calculated when in XBT. (ROI in XBT = saving XBT)
The ASIC manufacturers (and Mining funds) on the other hand have hard expenses in fiat, so they are converting new XBT to fiat at the moment.
If we stay in the $100 target, the ASIC manufactures do more of the same and difficulty increases exponentially, if the price dips the demand for high priced Asics will diminish and the manufacturers will have to innovate.
We are approaching equilibrium with difficulty related to price, so we should expect change soon.
July 16, 2013, 01:33:04 PM
It sounds like mr Market's manic depressive phase is on :p
Mr. Market? I thought it was Ms. Market.
Sometimes I think it's dirty old Uncle Market.
July 16, 2013, 01:32:56 PM
Even the major betting houses are offering bitcoin price speculation... http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/bitcoin-betting
OT but, I thought the Julian Assange 'How will he leave the Ecuadorian Embassy?', had a funny option....by Jetpack - 500/1
OT but, I thought the Julian Assange 'How will he leave the Ecuadorian Embassy?', had a funny option....by Jetpack - 500/1
July 16, 2013, 01:25:39 PM
I'm actually becoming more bearish now in the longer term because such a dysfunctional market (where you can't withdraw for over a month!) is certain to repel any large money from flowing into MtGox. And what the market leader does also manifests in people's confidence in the others.
And when MtGox finally opens the valves again, the damage (confidence erosure) is already done.
This bear market has only begun.
And when MtGox finally opens the valves again, the damage (confidence erosure) is already done.
This bear market has only begun.
July 16, 2013, 01:19:16 PM
(...)
This already happened after the 2011 bubble, and I don't see why it won't happen again.
You didn't factor one thing. To this day people who wanted to have bitcoins could just simply mine them or buy graphics card they would use anyway and mine. But now all of the small fishes will have to buy bitcoins because their mining is not profitable. Which means that even if asic miners will sell bitcoins most people will have to buy them to use.
Fair point, and quite encouraging. But that won't happen until they're convinced we've reached the bottom.
Whenever that happens, I look forward to the buyers vs commercial-miners battle!
July 16, 2013, 01:03:20 PM
MtGox price is decoupling from Bitstamp and BTC-e again. There seems to be concern because there hasn't been a single person sighted who has actually successfully withdrawn money from MtGox since they announced the end of the hiatus. If this is true, then money hasn't been allowed to flee MtGox for at least a month. I'd consider the MtGox price distorted, and I'm not sure how long Bitstamp and BTC-e are going to follow it that much, so the price gap will probably widen more.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
so. up we go right?
July 16, 2013, 01:01:59 PM
July 16, 2013, 01:01:18 PM
MtGox price is decoupling from Bitstamp and BTC-e again. There seems to be concern because there hasn't been a single person sighted who has actually successfully withdrawn money from MtGox since they announced the end of the hiatus. If this is true, then money hasn't been allowed to flee MtGox for at least a month. I'd consider the MtGox price distorted, and I'm not sure how long Bitstamp and BTC-e are going to follow it that much, so the price gap will probably widen more.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
They discussed the insolvency possibility on this episode of Let's Talk Bitcoin? http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheDailyBitcoinShow/~5/Bv_o-_Nqxog/100831526-mindtomatter-e23-1-is-mt-gox-insolvent-lets.mp3
One of the hosts makes a fairly good case to worry about things.
Gox (and other exchanges) can be like banks. But, they hold BTC's and they Hold $$$. Well, people will not take all their coins out at one time (no runs) and Gox knows this (they observe this). The coins are just on the books (and offline) and there is no transparent way to see if they actually say they have what they have. Sort of fractional reserve Bitcoining. Anything like this happens and that would be terrible. Right now the pressure is on Gox, but any exchange can do likewise. They can sell BTC when they think it will be going lower and then buy it back later. This can get them in trouble of course. They can likewise be creative with their cash. I mean look at what banks do with our cash. (You deposit 10,000 and they can loan out 9,000 roughly, and so on, and so on.)
July 16, 2013, 12:58:14 PM
MtGox price is decoupling from Bitstamp and BTC-e again. There seems to be concern because there hasn't been a single person sighted who has actually successfully withdrawn money from MtGox since they announced the end of the hiatus. If this is true, then money hasn't been allowed to flee MtGox for at least a month. I'd consider the MtGox price distorted, and I'm not sure how long Bitstamp and BTC-e are going to follow it that much, so the price gap will probably widen more.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
Pretty much agree. The price feels completely distorted, there's even been a bounty for someone to show a wire going thru after the hiatus and nobody was able to post a screenshot. Wow, that's puzzling. If people cannot withdraw their fiat, they will slowly buy BTC to move it to other exchanges, maintaining the price artificially high on Gox; the other exchanges, keep following Gox (even if they are decoupling now) because at the end of the day, MtGox its still the biggest market by far.
July 16, 2013, 12:57:07 PM
(...)
This already happened after the 2011 bubble, and I don't see why it won't happen again.
You didn't factor one thing. To this day people who wanted to have bitcoins could just simply mine them or buy graphics card they would use anyway and mine. But now all of the small fishes will have to buy bitcoins because their mining is not profitable. Which means that even if asic miners will sell bitcoins most people will have to buy them to use.
July 16, 2013, 12:46:42 PM
You will get almost same return mining LTC and BTC, as they are basically pegged long term.
And with LTC I'm up against other GPU miners, not ASICsWhat difference does it make if you mine LTC or BTC if LTC price is constant fraction of BTC? (long term)
July 16, 2013, 12:45:00 PM
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
Who? Gox? Nooooo, I can't believe that!
July 16, 2013, 12:43:22 PM
You will get almost same return mining LTC and BTC, as they are basically pegged long term.
And with LTC I'm up against other GPU miners, not ASICs July 16, 2013, 12:40:26 PM
MtGox price is decoupling from Bitstamp and BTC-e again. There seems to be concern because there hasn't been a single person sighted who has actually successfully withdrawn money from MtGox since they announced the end of the hiatus. If this is true, then money hasn't been allowed to flee MtGox for at least a month. I'd consider the MtGox price distorted, and I'm not sure how long Bitstamp and BTC-e are going to follow it that much, so the price gap will probably widen more.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
July 16, 2013, 12:34:21 PM
It sounds like mr Market's manic depressive phase is on :p
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