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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32738. (Read 26469308 times)

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
I stand correct, the SR point is so '2011ish, everybody understands that BTC is not "heavily influenced" by illegal activity, that's a drop in the ocean, what drives BTC is the hope it will be valued higher in the future.

Let's use a different word , more suitable Smiley. Greed Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
I don't know how I could argue that because is true. Still, 99% is speculation. ASIC and SR are a drop in the ocean compared to the relevance of speculation in the BTC economy.


The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.

Mmmm, yes, so what did I change? Bitcoin is not only SR, but SR happens to be its "killer app". In fact, BTC is not driven by SR, but by pure speculation, as I wrote in that old post that was a reply to this:

there is no VC that is going to put significant amounts of cash into something that is so heavily influenced by illegal activity.  

I stand correct, the SR point is so '2011ish, everybody understands that BTC is not "heavily influenced" by illegal activity, that's a drop in the ocean, what drives BTC is the hope it will be valued higher in the future.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
I don't know how I could argue that because is true. Still, 99% is speculation. ASIC and SR are a drop in the ocean compared to the relevance of speculation in the BTC economy.


The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Is everyone just trying to catch the bottom?
before it goes to the moon!!!!!! BUY NOW
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Is everyone just trying to catch the bottom?
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1801
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Born to chew bubble gum and kick ass
Will we be in 60s this weekend?
sr. member
Activity: 411
Merit: 250
great.. sold at 72 bought back in 80..   sold at 75 again..;gox will be hapy lol
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.

No, I didn't change anything. We were speaking about regulation. You said that if BTC was banned by the US, it would die and fail miserably. I said that even if it was banned, it would absorb more black market economy activity, which would make BTC grow and its price raise.

Note that I say SR is genius, and we need more killer apps like SR. Business models that couldn't exist without BTC. You mocked SR, to the contrary I consider it genius, and I say BTC needs more and bigger SR's.

You mistake me for the wrong person. I said that the only use where bitcoin is better than fiat at this point is Silkroad and store of value. I said that bitcoin economy = silkroad + asics + speculation and nothing else.

I don't know how I could argue that because is true. Still, 99% is speculation. ASIC and SR are a drop in the ocean compared to the relevance of speculation in the BTC economy.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
From a TA point of view, it makes sense to sort of continue where we left off (minus some room up for advancements, adoption, store of value, global economic situation, etc.)
That puts us anywhere from 20's to 50's (and I'd say at the lower range of that BUT we have to consider our advancement and such as stated above.)

Exactly this. It's not only TA, it's also common sense. When price started to skyrocket at $20-30, we had a clear bubble inflation, where people bought a lot and quickly because they hoped the price would raise a lot and very fast. The last weeks before the crash was pure "mania", with market buy orders of +$1M from people that irrationally feared they wouldn't be able to buy again at those prices.

What trigger that? Cyprus? Nah. Just greed, bubble psychology works like that, you want to hop on the train as soon as possible so you make as much money as possible.

Then bubbles pop, and you have the opposite logic. People is in just because the price was going "to da moon", they realize the price is going down so they sell, the sells make the price to go down quickly and trigger panic, which triggers more downwards movement, wash rinse and repeat.

Really no ETF news will change that cycle. All this speculative mania has to deflate for good, all those who bought for the pure quick profit need to sell, and while the user base will for sure have increased because of the bubble media exposure, it's nowhere so big to support the current prices. $20 to $50 is probably spot on as a "real" current value of BTC. During the bubble inflation I always thought that when it popped, logic thing would be for its bottom to be the top of the previous bubble ($32).

Some will call me a "depicable bear" for this opinion, but I think that I was buying Bitcoins at $13 in January, and i don't see how believing in a bottom of $30ish is so negative and bearish. At the end of the day, it's more than double the price we had at the beginning of the year, which makes BTC an excellent investment if you avoid to get caught in the inflation of the bubble.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.

No, I didn't change anything. We were speaking about regulation. You said that if BTC was banned by the US, it would die and fail miserably. I said that even if it was banned, it would absorb more black market economy activity, which would make BTC grow and its price raise.

Note that I say SR is genius, and we need more killer apps like SR. Business models that couldn't exist without BTC. You mocked SR, to the contrary I consider it genius, and I say BTC needs more and bigger SR's.

You mistake me for the wrong person. I said that the only use where bitcoin is better than fiat at this point is Silkroad and store of value. I said that bitcoin economy = silkroad + asics + speculation and nothing else.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
Are we really going to revisit $50 bitcoins? This is weird to me. ASIC was a revolution in the security of the network and the speculators reacted appropriately. $50 is where the price simply began to ramp up after the massive battle over $20. Sub $50 coins? I don't buy it.

It is very very possible. I think you (we) need to consider the early adopters and miners who have most of the shares (relative to regular Joes).
When we get in a clear downtrend they don't want to be the last one out the door.
So, you see sells into rallies and such moves.
The volume difference (really size of sales) is clear. Just watch the tape. (You will notice more 100, 200, 5000 and larger size blocks on the sells than the buys and it's generally not close).

From a TA point of view, it makes sense to sort of continue where we left off (minus some room up for advancements, adoption, store of value, global economic situation, etc.)
That puts us anywhere from 20's to 50's (and I'd say at the lower range of that BUT we have to consider our advancement and such as stated above.)
full member
Activity: 227
Merit: 100


Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.



Very interesting post! a proper perspective...rather than the usual bullish fud.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
Are we really going to revisit $50 bitcoins? This is weird to me. ASIC was a revolution in the security of the network and the speculators reacted appropriately. $50 is where the price simply began to ramp up after the massive battle over $20. Sub $50 coins? I don't buy it.
sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 250

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

In my opinion this kind of news is extremely interesting, and while it's neglected by many, its potentially more bullish than any ETF. Underdeveloped counties can play a fundamental role in future currencies and stores of value.

In a sense we need a killer app of some type. This could be the start at least in another country. We only need things to start taking off in one location and then the organic nature of BTC (, developers and the VC's) can take over.
My concern though, with something like this is the volatility of BTC. That is not a problem if you are using Bitpay or the like, but for BTC to work in these countries I would think there needs to
be some form of stability, UNLESS the inflation rate there is more risky than BTC (e.g. - Argentina).

Can you imagine if this "app" takes off AFTER we correct and people in poor nations are locked into something deflationary and rising quite steadily in price?

IAS

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.

Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.

If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..

Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.

It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.

The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction,  I'll take that.

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.


Very interesting post and thanks for taking the time to give your opinion.
I certainly give someone "on the ground" more credibility than a techy guy.
It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

What you say may very well be true (makes a lot of sense) but a nice app, easier access to BTC and such mich help change things.

Even if BTC becomes a store of wealth for few, with the world banking system the way it is, it can still be a very good thing to hold.
And one also has to consider the low float and global market size, we don't need to be wildly successful to succeed.

edit - Great points/posts Gismo and justusranzier. Very interesting posts and it just goes to show you perspective is everything.

you think you got it hard? im from venezuela Tongue thats 10 years in a row of exchange control , harder that the one of the fellows from the south, believe i know what are you talking about, i must say tho the best way to get the coin is with the mining operations, lucky for me the electricity here cost a nickle the lowest cost in all america, idk about the cost of operations in argentina but maybe you should try out Smiley regards.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.

No, I didn't change anything. We were speaking about regulation. You said that if BTC was banned by the US, it would die and fail miserably. I said that even if it was banned, it would absorb more black market economy activity, which would make BTC grow and its price raise.

Note that I say SR is genius, and we need more killer apps like SR. Business models that couldn't exist without BTC. You mocked SR, to the contrary I consider it genius, and I say BTC needs more and bigger SR's.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.


If I see Its about sharing saying the same thing I'm gonna visit my optometrist.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1801
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

In my opinion this kind of news is extremely interesting, and while it's neglected by many, its potentially more bullish than any ETF. Underdeveloped counties can play a fundamental role in future currencies and stores of value.

In a sense we need a killer app of some type. This could be the start at least in another country. We only need things to start taking off in one location and then the organic nature of BTC (, developers and the VC's) can take over.
My concern though, with something like this is the volatility of BTC. That is not a problem if you are using Bitpay or the like, but for BTC to work in these countries I would think there needs to
be some form of stability, UNLESS the inflation rate there is more risky than BTC (e.g. - Argentina).

Can you imagine if this "app" takes off AFTER we correct and people in poor nations are locked into something deflationary and rising quite steadily in price?

IAS

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.

Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.

If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..

Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.

It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.

The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction,  I'll take that.

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.


Very interesting post and thanks for taking the time to give your opinion.
I certainly give someone "on the ground" more credibility than a techy guy.
It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

What you say may very well be true (makes a lot of sense) but a nice app, easier access to BTC and such mich help change things.

Even if BTC becomes a store of wealth for few, with the world banking system the way it is, it can still be a very good thing to hold.
And one also has to consider the low float and global market size, we don't need to be wildly successful to succeed.

edit - Great points/posts Gismo and justusranzier. Very interesting posts and it just goes to show you perspective is everything.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.
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