Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32740. (Read 26709821 times)
August 19, 2013, 10:17:47 AM
Just a random question here. Since Gox supports several currencies, do those markets also adhere by the going exchanges rates of the dollar and the euro? For example, the dollar drops versus the euro one day, would the Gox market reflect this or would there be a significant delay of a few days?
August 19, 2013, 10:04:27 AM
180$ by friday, amirite or amirite?
August 19, 2013, 10:02:29 AM
August 19, 2013, 09:56:26 AM
Try making trades of +300 coins at Bitstamp without MAYOR slippage and then report back please...
Mayor Slippage
August 19, 2013, 09:53:51 AM
August 19, 2013, 09:49:34 AM
I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.
I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO.
Try making trades of +300 coins at Bitstamp without MAYOR slippage and then report back please...
Even on Gox, the slippage is a huge profit killer for traders - on Bitstamp is just impossible to daytrade for anyone with a little more than play money.
August 19, 2013, 09:02:16 AM
August 19, 2013, 08:50:34 AM
If you go to school in japan, then you could just open a personal japanese bank account (so long as you have a studnet visa).
Might be a bit late to do the paperwork (school start next week). MtGox should fix their banking issue before I can get a student visa. 
August 19, 2013, 08:48:37 AM
If you go to school in japan, then you could just open a personal japanese bank account (so long as you have a studnet visa).
August 19, 2013, 08:45:40 AM
Smell like to da moon on Gox to me.
<-- Thinking about delaying school to move to Japan to arb the shit out of Gox.
<-- Thinking about delaying school to move to Japan to arb the shit out of Gox.
August 19, 2013, 08:08:41 AM
I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.
I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO.
I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already.
Yeah, the price movement is on Gox (and originates there). Look at this last movement. Nothing happened on Stamp for a while, then suddenly a $4 movement and then it backed off.
I am also really worried about Gox. It might end up being nothing, but how long ago did that 2 week freeze on wiring money end? About 2 months ago or so? And it was only supposed to take a few weeks to get back to speed (backlog as Gox said). Now - NO WORD, zero...
Sometimes that makes trading on Stamp easier!
I find that it mostly carves its own patterns these days though, apart from these big moves.IMO, you don't end up with prices 20% higher than elsewhere unless something is very wrong. Whether it is panic at not knowing what is going on or whether some big players do know what is going on, who can say?
August 19, 2013, 08:02:26 AM
August 19, 2013, 07:44:06 AM
August 19, 2013, 07:12:02 AM
I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.
I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO.
I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already.
Yeah, the price movement is on Gox (and originates there). Look at this last movement. Nothing happened on Stamp for a while, then suddenly a $4 movement and then it backed off.
I am also really worried about Gox. It might end up being nothing, but how long ago did that 2 week freeze on wiring money end? About 2 months ago or so? And it was only supposed to take a few weeks to get back to speed (backlog as Gox said). Now - NO WORD, zero...
August 19, 2013, 07:02:31 AM
I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.
I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO.
I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already.
August 19, 2013, 07:02:16 AM
August 19, 2013, 06:47:19 AM
Not really, the last one happened @ $123.
Also if they get sold on Gox in 15days it's just another argument against the theory of people "getting out of gox".
Also if they get sold on Gox in 15days it's just another argument against the theory of people "getting out of gox".
The 123 push was no whale, just panic buyers.
There were people getting out of Gox via coins and Bitstamp, where they are probably selling now or will sell when the next rally happens.
But my 15 days crude estimate is about the sub-waves 4 and 5 of the main Elliot wave.
August 19, 2013, 06:39:16 AM
So it's a run on Gox then ...
A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.
MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC
Quote
Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.
I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.
August 19, 2013, 06:38:06 AM
So it's a run on Gox then ...
A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.
MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC
Quote
Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.
I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
August 19, 2013, 06:20:21 AM
Quote
Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.
I guess the whales can negotiate about conditions with Gox. Don't you think many little guys are buying BTC with their Gox USD?
I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.
The big whale only bought at the bottom of this rally, smaller whales followed.
As for the missing coins, they may show up for sale on Gox in about 15 days (that's a crude estimation).
Not really, the last one happened @ $123.
Also if they get sold on Gox in 15days it's just another argument against the theory of people "getting out of gox".
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