Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32741.

rebuilder

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Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 03:49:54 AM

If price rises in Gox, all or part of it can be attributed to Gox crap situation (and dismissed as evidence).

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, the Gox price rise is mainly caused by their withdrawal issues creating increased intra-gox demand for bitcoins. So much of the fuzzy "market sentiment" is still driven by that Gox ticker, it's not hard for me to imagine a scenario where all the exchanges keep creeping up on the hype of the Gox price going up, even if it did in the end turn out to be a sort of bank run fueling the Gox rocket. If that were to happen, we could also see a pretty drastic drop down when the Gox uncertainty get resolved, one way or the other.

joesmoe2012

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Ching-Chang;Ding-Dong

Quote from: RMT2J on August 19, 2013, 06:04:03 AM

Japan just came fully back into business today after a near one week long public holiday. Roll Eyes

Its always a holiday @ gox.

Tzupy

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Quote from: DaSheep on August 19, 2013, 05:45:19 AM

I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.

The big whale only bought at the bottom of this rally, smaller whales followed.
As for the missing coins, they may show up for sale on Gox in about 15 days (that's a crude estimation).

RMT2J

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Japan just came fully back into business today after a near one week long public holiday. Roll Eyes

ChartBuddy

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DaSheep

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Quote from: wachtwoord on August 19, 2013, 05:34:26 AM

Quote from: DaSheep on August 19, 2013, 05:27:27 AM

Quote

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

I guess the whales can negotiate about conditions with Gox. Don't you think many little guys are buying BTC with their Gox USD?

I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: DaSheep on August 19, 2013, 05:27:27 AM

Quote

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

I guess the whales can negotiate about conditions with Gox. Don't you think many little guys are buying BTC with their Gox USD?

DaSheep

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Quote from: Traktion on August 19, 2013, 04:40:48 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 04:20:52 AM

Quote from: SGExodus on August 19, 2013, 04:00:41 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 03:49:54 AM

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.

I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins.

Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins.

This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD.

So it's a run on Gox then ...

A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.

MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC

Quote

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

01BTC10

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Quote from: 01BTC10 on August 18, 2013, 10:03:55 PM

Smell like 120 to me.

This.

LightRider

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I advocate the Zeitgeist Movement & Venus Project.

Suggestion for chartbuddy: Make the leading price edge line, the front line on z-axis if you will, a rainbow gradient with each pure color set on a modulus 10 price point. Say, red (#FF0000) is pegged to $100, and each $10 dollar increment has a gradient progression to the next pure color in either direction ($90 is Violet, $110 is Orange, etc.). That way, when the screens are put together in video format, we can easily determine the price movement.

Just an idea. What do you guys think?

ChartBuddy

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Traktion

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 04:20:52 AM

Quote from: SGExodus on August 19, 2013, 04:00:41 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 03:49:54 AM

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.

I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins.

Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins.

This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD.

So it's a run on Gox then ...

A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.

samson

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Quote from: ?? on ??

So it's a run on Gox then ...

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

The very jittery all 'did a runner' from MtGox when the Dwolla incident happened.

rpietila

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Quote from: SGExodus on August 19, 2013, 04:00:41 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 03:49:54 AM

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.

I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins.

Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins.

This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD.

ChartBuddy

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SGExodus

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Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 03:49:54 AM

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.

MickeyT2008

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This account was recently hacked

MtGox seems to be down, or at least it is from my computer anyway, yet there still seem to be a few trades happening

503 Service Temporarily Unavailable

EDIT: It's working again

aepfel

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Quote from: rpietila on August 19, 2013, 03:49:54 AM

Quote from: molecular on August 19, 2013, 01:08:11 AM

a break of $115 (if sustained) is truly bullish (wether driven by gox crap situation or not doesn't matter)

If price rises in Gox, all or part of it can be attributed to Gox crap situation (and dismissed as evidence).

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

i agree. and then we maybe see the real current volumeallocation.

rpietila

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Quote from: molecular on August 19, 2013, 01:08:11 AM

a break of $115 (if sustained) is truly bullish (wether driven by gox crap situation or not doesn't matter)

If price rises in Gox, all or part of it can be attributed to Gox crap situation (and dismissed as evidence).

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

ShroomsKit

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Quote from: niothor on August 19, 2013, 03:08:55 AM

Quote from: vokain on August 19, 2013, 02:36:13 AM

I heard joe Lewis was investing in bitcoin
PayPal too (decently plausible??)

you're joking , right?

still , gox is funny
a 55k dump will only bring the price to 100 (btc,bitstamp)
a 55k buy , ... over 1100 =)))))

I think that can be done today

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