Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32840. (Read 26633818 times)

Great post, I enjoyed reading that. Your sentiments are quite similar to mine (but that isn't why I liked it!).

It is a bit of a "trapped between a rock and a hard place" when your heart is 100% BTC (not for the money, for what it represents, changes, brings and eventually demolishes) but the technical indicators say "down" or bring lots of uncertainty. So, let's look at GREED. We are trained in it - that is the backdrop of Capitalism. I'll sacrifice "profits" on a move up to confirm the move up. I'm not shorting just on principle but I am not locked into a belief system, so anything can change.

The Astro thread (my comments) and the audio file say Summer is not a BTC time. I take that in and it makes up maybe 30% or so of my "opinion". The technical indicators another 30% and the fundamentals another 30%. Perhaps my intuition pulls a bit of what is left over together, and I, of course, am not really breaking it down like that in my head or in practice. It varies and moves as life does. The time I am excited about is coming (astrologically) and that is later in the year. And I'm very much looking forward to next year when the Sun is in Aries again, like the last run (not the 2011 one). I'll watch that time closely. Each of these "systems" are weighed according to my intuition and what is going on at the time. BTW - GANN was an astrologer and used that in his toobox... Extensively! His stock analysis was top notch. I won't let what others think influence what I have in my toolbox and what I speak of...   Sometimes seeing something works but not knowing why is fine - don't depend on science to tell you what is possible or impossible. People were put to death in the past for using things (e.g. astrology, entheogens, etc.) that was only meant for the Elite/Church, how people gloss that clue over just shows you the influence society/culture/tradition/religion/etc. has over them.

Regarding the arbitrary mathematical rules - I concur and don't get me wrong - I was overlaying some GANN patterns on tradeview last night and I actually think I taught myself something - I looked for my own "patterns". Is it better for me to first read about GANN? Probably. But I have enough of a foundation in math and stock trading to teach myself. Look at Hendrix, he clearly had influences from many people, but he couldn't read music and his approach broke through boundaries that had he embraced, wouldn't have been the Jimi we loved. So, I'll use him as my model and not Soros so to say! ehehehhe

I do think the big buyers on the run from $65 to $108 or so, used TA as an entry point. I know because I had my finger on the trigger at $68 (ouch that I didn't buy in there.) But, as you alluded to, we can't depend on that. Don't get caught with your pants down (unless it is beneficial for you ;-9  (was that "9" a mistake or meant to be?....)

Depending on systems only traps you within those systems. I remember what J. Krishnamurti said, "Life is a pathless land." I take that to heart and try not to be too "disabled" in any one area, which is challenging...
I also remember some of what Morpheus said...

In the end and as stated throughout my posts, I believe in BTC and that is the "TA" that counts. That is what it will be in the end, regardless of if I mistime my entry/exit points. In a sense, posting here, doing TA, Astrology, etc. is just fun...

IAS

Ah, I misread what you meant by that HnS chart and the text. weeee bit tired seeing as it's 6AM. my apologies

How I see it is the pressure is brewing. So question: where is it going to pop? The developments that have been taking place behind the scenes (of which you are aware, per the astro threads), are, to me, very bullish however.

So, considering that, it's too risky for me to be short of any sort at this particular point in time, especially when it's contradictory with how I personally analyze the market. Since my thinking is that we've been in a primary uptrend since pizza, with a few secondary down trends, (trend is your friend, etc) I understand that it's very risky to bet against the trend, even if trying to follow a secondary trend (as Charles Dow warned).the only way I'll sell is as we go up if we go up too fast ie on the climb of a bubble.

I am trying to learn some TA too, can never be a bad perspective to have. However, for some, focusing on and following a strict arbitrary mathematical rules can make certain people not focus as much as they should on considering the simple perspective of what's going on here. You do note that:

"One last thing, I follow some people using (advanced) mathematical systems (e.g. Gann, Elliot, Fib, etc.) and they aren't right any more than the simpletons that I see. It seems to be a toss up. Though, the really good players are probably not "playing" on the forums and such. "

So, it's probably a bit of both TA and psychology that the good major players implement. TA would be useful in determining pressure points and also in determining how people that use TA solely are going to react. But they also look at the market sentiment and future dynamics. "Would a series of dumps here make people panic?" "How should I accumulate without too much slippage" etc etc

I think my point is, either we can think like market makers, or we can be market easy targets. I do not believe for a second that the people that have influence in the market are following a TA trading system trying to scoop tops and bottoms like that of Goomboo's journal. Keep things simple and perhaps it's easier to see the market for what it really is

now, I need sleep, don't do anything crazy without me!!

@Vokain - I was being honest with the H&S "find" (in opposition to my call down) but when I checked the volume I realized it wasn't one. If the volume comes now it won't really be in the right shoulder as the shoulder is mostly complete (a bit contrary to your chart, which shows high volume in the left shoulder). The idea of the volume is a built up spring in a sense, not just one day of volume and a breakout imo. (edit - I might be wrong here the more I see other charts but we have no volume in the right shoulder at all thus far, and all the docs I see, say you need it. In light of your chart though, I'll pay special attention in case it comes, then it is a nice confirmation).

So, I'm feeling a bit bearish (mid term), but more than anything, confused, like a lot of people around here and tradeview. We are at a really critical level. (Below key resistance both "physically" (chart) and psychologically - $100 level). And the volume that got us up here was some really really large buyers (Satoshi Dice buy?). Yes, they are the market as well, but I don't trust or rather hope for an up move continuing on their account. I'd rather see the common folk bring it up and I don't really see them taking a large part in the move yet.

Without a doubt, your point of "Does the price follow the chart or the chart follow the price?" is the conundrum. Indicators are lagging instruments but intuition isn't. When I look at a chart (neutrally hopefully) I can get things that the indicators only say in part. I'd really like to learn Gann or the like and have a more mathematical based analysis system (but more for fun and as entry points - I'm not a trader per say, just trying to get more bang (BTC) for my buck.)

One last thing, I follow some people using (advanced) mathematical systems (e.g. Gann, Elliot, Fib, etc.) and they aren't right any more than the simpletons that I see. It seems to be a toss up. Though, the really good players are probably not "playing" on the forums and such.

IAS

I don't think what you're suggesting fits into what you're suggesting, if you're feeling bearish. but yes, we lack the volume (although.. we have yet to break through..)
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp

in the current situation, I can easily make myself believe both bearish and bullish outlooks.

fuck uncertainty

unbearable bullshit

I think the inverted head and shoulders is not a good one.
We need volume on the left shoulder and it isn't there.
We need an increase on the right shoulder and it isn't there.

This is rather a confirmation of my call down imo.

I was told that MFI should be used when the stock is trending up and down, not moving sideways. If that is true (and we will see), then it was a false call.
Even then, the MFI divergence happened at end of May - early June. Look what happened then - Big move down.

But yes, the last time we had two red candles was in that period you mentioned. Not a bit deal, but think about it, it has been a month. That is a long time and the chart is rolling over slightly.
The volume isn't there, clearly, but let's see the next 2 or 3 days.

Is this a bit of a reverse head and shoulders? Or too much angle?

Going back in the historical data of the Money Flow Index indicator you refer to, we have seen it look like it's trending down before yet the price has gone up. Look back to October and end of December. MFI pointed down, yet price went up. This happened during a very, very slow grind back up towards the 2012 top of $16.


June 26/27?
edit: also, a series of times post 2013 bubble.

also, while grinding up like we're grinding now
1/1-1/2
12/20-12/24
12/14-12/16
11/25-11/26
10/25-10/26
10/10-10/14 (four red days!)
There's a few more, but I'm too lazy, dating back to the August drop and subsequent grind up from, which I referred to a few posts back in #26768


I've asked this before, will the price follow the charts, or do the charts follow the price?

I'll say one part, When is the last time we've had two red candles in a row?

If I was partly in BTC I would hold some but I would be very very careful.
For sure there has been buying pressure but the chart is starting to remind me of the roll from $130. A bit more than that though.

mind sharing what, Its About Sharing?


also, going back in the historical data of the Money Flow Index indicator you refer to, we have seen it look like it's trending down before yet the price has gone up. Look back to October and end of December. MFI pointed down, yet price went up. This happened during a very, very slow grind back up towards the 2012 top of $16.

You missed one BIG obvious thing. We'll see what happens, but I'm calling a dark week.

Yeah. I want to know too.

And where is Coinsetter? I want more exchanges!