Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3292. (Read 26716434 times)

legendary
Activity: 3990
Merit: 4597
Question for everybody in the WO.

If today, you get 1Million$ fresh fiat, available to invest in totally in this market.


What would be your strategy ? Short-long term.. Level/target.. Pourcentage.. Diversification (i mean not only "all in" on btc)..


20% in btc immediately aka over 2-4wk (or even at once)
50% buy a decent house or apartment/condo for cash or w/minimal mortgage.
30% short term treasury fund (would earn 3% by the EOY)

OR
20% btc,
80% short term treasury, then move this money to tech stocks (and maybe more btc) once FED pivots to easing.

I am 65% in cash/treasuries in my non-btc (with some other alts) funds. 35% in stocks, mostly tech.
My timing in stocks is usually bad, though, so I almost always have to wait months to years for the breakeven in some individual stocks, but overall the portfolio is growing.
I don't buy indices.

However, lately, I start thinking that ALL this asset accumulation is meaningless (above and beyond comfortable living).
Just look at the world around us. Maybe the right idea is to decumulate and enjoy life while it is still mostly decent.

EDIT btw, some leading edge biotechs started a bull run from the bottom formed about 3-4 wk ago. Some are already 50% up. Biotechs usually lead the market as they started declining in July-September of 2021, few months before big techs. Take this with a grain of salt, but it could be a market "tell".
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265

Then it will get better or worse.

High density area with lowering of gun regulations... let's see...

Crime in NYC (and many other cities) is already on a steep incline at the moment. Good luck pulling any signal from the noise.

Fair point looking at the homicide rates...
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.

So you are comparing democratic countries where a person in power can peacfully be removed from office by popular vote, with a dictator that can only be removed by a shot to the head, good comparison, don't forget to put it in your CV.

No not all.

I am comparing all leaders of countries that wanted a change of leader in another country to a leader of a country who never makes such stupid, suicidal, boomerang statements.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.

So you are comparing democratic countries where a person in power can peacfully be removed from office by popular vote, with a dictator that can only be removed by a shot to the head, good comparison, don't forget to put it in your CV.
legendary
Activity: 3794
Merit: 5474
Take a look at the mass shootings they hardly happen with a handgun.
But yes handguns are the major source of homicide indeed...

Again, do some research, please. Don't just keep making shit up.

Is now the time to tell Wilhelm that the majority of U.S. fire arm homicides are from handguns? Or...?

https://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/handgun-homicides/

Any reason for a 30-60 capacity mag for self defense? Unless you are John Rambo ofcourse...


30 is a standard capacity mag for many sporting rifles. So we see already that the definition of "high capacity" is weaselly too.

And outlawing them wouldn't do shit anyway. Anyone can easily 3d print high cap mags nowdays. Easily.
legendary
Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
As far as I'm concerned, the debate over firearms is already over, a long time ago; we had one in my school about 25 years ago, the anti-guns lost (and these were high school kids debating, one school vs another). It's just people are still constantly misinformed or have the wrong facts, or are confused. Or they had rather die than be able to defend themselves.

legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

Then it will get better or worse.

High density area with lowering of gun regulations... let's see...

Crime in NYC (and many other cities) is already on a steep incline at the moment. Good luck pulling any signal from the noise.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
- restrict the insane from buying
- restrict criminals from buying
- proper storage of weapons in the home
- gun registration
- no open or concealed carry for assault rifles
- ban on high capacity magazines
- ban on full-auto firing

Done.
Done. (Unless you're Hunter Biden)
Needs proof it would have an effect - and not just a negative one.
Would have no effect other than making people targets.
Nobody is open or otherwise carrying assault rifles.
Weaselly. Define high capacity.
Done (effectively)

Well done on showing how woefully uninformed you are.



Without gun registration you don't know which maniac is stockpiling guns like the dude that had 47 guns in his hotel room when shooting a crowd. If someone gets shot the gun owner can be traced.
Any reason for a 30-60 capacity mag for self defense? Unless you are John Rambo ofcourse...

But let's get back to crypto Smiley


Who cares how many guns you have? you can only shoot one gun at the time anyway, what you need is a lot of ammunition.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
Take a look at the mass shootings they hardly happen with a handgun.
But yes handguns are the major source of homicide indeed...

Again, do some research, please. Don't just keep making shit up.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
Any reason for a 30-60 capacity mag for self defense? Unless you are John Rambo ofcourse...


30 is a standard capacity mag for many sporting rifles. So we see already that the definition of "high capacity" is weaselly too.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
Wow comparing the USA with Brazil to find an outlier that fits your narrative.

Well let's see if New Yorks forced relaxation of the gun control is going to bring down gun crimes...

If you consider the truth a narrative, then you would be correct; your belief in it is irrelevant.

I compared nothing, I stated examples showing the high amount of defensive uses of firearms. These numbers would then be compared to the number of "mass shootings", showing your line of thinking is incorrect. Words matter, use them appropriately.

This would be another comparison:
EU
"More than one in four Europeans were victims of harassment and 22 million were physically attacked in one year. But crime victims typically do not report their experiences. They often have difficulties accessing their rights and may feel voiceless. These are the results of the first-ever EU-wide survey on the general population’s experience of crime"
"Nearly one in 10 people in the EU (9 %) experienced violence within five years of the survey"
Only a third (30 %) of victims report their physical attack and a tenth (11 %) their incident of harassment to the police"
https://fra.europa.eu/en/news/2021/violence-and-harassment-across-europe-much-higher-official-records

USA
"From 2019 to 2020, the NCVS rate of violent crime reported to police decreased from 8.6 to 6.6 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older (down 23%), while the UCR SRS violent crime rate increased marginally from 3.8 per 1,000 persons in 2019 to 4.0 per 1,000 in 2020."
https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/nations-two-crime-measures-2011-2020

EU - 9%
USA - 0.4% (or 0.66% if you prefer). Obviously all those 300,000,000+ guns owned by law abiding citizens are causing widespread mayhem not seen elsewhere in the world  Roll Eyes




Heathdata.org


While for example the UK dosen't have many shootings, they do stab each other like crazy. You should look at the total number of homocides instead.

What year is the graph from? it doesnt match what I have read lately.

Ever heard of a mass-stabbing or a school-stabbing....

Excuses....

Plus just that you know, the United States leads the statistics on knife crimes too....
Plus homicide rates in the USA are higher than any European country.

Yes actually, we have had a few school stabbings in Sweden lately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trollh%C3%A4ttan_school_attack

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60830059

And there's more where that came from.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

Considering per-capita firearms ownership, it should not be a legitimate surprise the USA is ranked first, if we are being completely honest with ourselves.

Largely irrelevant too. Dead is dead. Homicides per capita is the number to look at. Of course people will use the most efficient tool for the job.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

Dammit, now you made me look up flaccid.

Adj. 1. flaccid - drooping without elasticity; wanting in stiffness; "a flaccid penis". soft - yielding readily to pressure or weight. 2. flaccid - out of condition; not strong or robust; incapable of exertion or endurance; "he was too soft for the army"; "flabby around the middle"; "flaccid cheeks". flabby, soft.

Now do "turgid".
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Well let's see if New Yorks forced relaxation of the gun control is going to bring down gun crimes...

Well, the restrictions already in place sure haven't been.

Then it will get better or worse.

High density area with lowering of gun regulations... let's see...
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
Well let's see if New Yorks forced relaxation of the gun control is going to bring down gun crimes...

Well, the restrictions already in place sure haven't been.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Well then you have a lot of mass "defensive rifle" shootings... hardly anyone got "assaulted" right?

Handguns mostly. Do some research, please.

Take a look at the mass shootings they hardly happen with a handgun.
But yes handguns are the major source of homicide indeed...
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
Well then you have a lot of mass "defensive rifle" shootings... hardly anyone got "assaulted" right?

Handguns mostly. Do some research, please.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
- restrict the insane from buying
- restrict criminals from buying
- proper storage of weapons in the home
- gun registration
- no open or concealed carry for assault rifles
- ban on high capacity magazines
- ban on full-auto firing

Done.
Done. (Unless you're Hunter Biden)
Needs proof it would have an effect - and not just a negative one.
Would have no effect other than making people targets.
Nobody is open or otherwise carrying assault rifles.
Weaselly. Define high capacity.
Done (effectively)

Well done on showing how woefully uninformed you are.



Without gun registration you don't know which maniac is stockpiling guns like the dude that had 47 guns in his hotel room when shooting a crowd. If someone gets shot the gun owner can be traced.
Any reason for a 30-60 capacity mag for self defense? Unless you are John Rambo ofcourse...

But let's get back to crypto Smiley
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Question for everybody in the WO.

If today, you get 1Million$ fresh fiat, available to invest in totally in this market.


What would be your strategy ? Short-long term.. Level/target.. Pourcentage.. Diversification (i mean not only "all in" on btc)..

Divide into three parts:  1) Buy $333k more or less immediately (with orders that are sufficiently unlikely to move the BTC price limited buy orders rather than market price buying).  2) Set $333k in a kind of front-loading DCA system over 6 to 18 months (likely buying weekly - a weekly allowance - with larger orders towards the front of whatever period that I choose.. maybe 18 months would be better with that amount of money?)  3) $333k to buy on dips, perhaps set the vast majority between $19k ($500 below lump sum purchase price) and $14k with a bit of a skew towards the higher prices in the range, and maybe have some additional buy orders between $9k and $14k.. with some difficulties to believe that those ones will get filled . but to consider readjusting those $9k to $14k buy orders if the BTC price were to get close to filling most if not all of the ones between $14k and $19k.   

Question for everybody in the WO.

If today, you get 1Million$ fresh fiat, available to invest in totally in this market.


What would be your strategy ? Short-long term.. Level/target.. Pourcentage.. Diversification (i mean not only "all in" on btc)..

What would I do with fresh fiat TODAY ?

30% cash awaiting to buy BTC in over next 1-3-6 months. (If it makes sense at the time)
25% cash awaiting to buy a very particular alt over 1-3-6 months. (Regardless)
15% cash awaiting to buy another particular alt over 1-3-6 months. (If it makes sense at the time)
20% cash for rainy day for BTC next year/year after/ Blackswan. (If it makes sense at the time)
10% cash just cos

Oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Or should I say HOLY FUCK!!!!?


hahahahahaha

What evidence of shitcoiner inclinations and lack of confidence in dee king of daddies.

Can imagine your current holdings look equally crappy as your proposed vision (to the extent it can be charitably labeled a s such).. hahahaha #justsaying

This is the weirdest bear market so far...
I am having fun!  I really am.
same here. the thrill is back for me. not since i started and went through my 1st crash (~90% drop) have i felt like this.
are we toast? have we made a huge mistake? if we crash way hard and crater it big time will it survive?
and just like my 1st "panic" in the 2011 crash one thing stays the same for me: HODL this pig. cuz moon or hole in the ground im in 100%
You guys are sick.

That's why empowering is getting invited to the party, and you two are NOT.

Fun.. .

yeah right.. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I have to chime in it is a bit more complex than just being black and white.  Though in some ways I tend towards polarity myself.  I have never been comfortable trading.  My strategies are very tailored to what is successful to me.  But there is still risk.  One risk that became realized during this particular bull/bear run was always there.  You just don't know what life is going to throw at you.

Well it threw everything at me between 2021 and now.  I got news yesterday that my mother is likely dying.

In retrospect if I had taken more profits when we were 3x higher I would be in much better shape now.  But I have also chosen this strategy with my eyes wide open.  I will get through this time, and possibly be better for it.  Or it will kill me.  Can't say for sure.  Never can.

It sounds trite.  It might sound like the tritest thing one can ever say.  I have been here here in the Bitcoin hurricane-roller-coaster with you crazy people for a lot of years now.  And it has taught me something that might even be more valuable than the financial gain possible if one can weather this storm.  And that is what really matters in life.  See.. trite.  We all already know this.  But I did not KNOW it, and am just learning really

It is fleeting. It is hard to grasp.  And impossible, really, to control.  The path of life, that is.  I can only breathe in, and out. And make choices.  But in the end I must really be at peace with where I am.  Or not.

Breathe in... out...

It is possible to look back on life and see the things I could have done differently.  I could have paid better attention to that thing happening with my child in 2016.  I could have bought more bitcoin in 2011.  And so on.  A mirror image of this, it is also possible to become full of myself and make lists of the things I have done right.  But both of these paths spring from the same emptiness.

I am a Christian.  But I draw a lot from the Buddhists too, I guess.  And desire is a mean ass bitch.  I admire death_wish for laying his errors out on the line for all to see here (although... well nevermind).  And desire isn't really bad.  It just is what it is.  Like fire.  And knowing how to work with it, is to be free from being burned by it, I think.

Anyway.  Somehow this experience with Bitcoin has taught me how to care about the right things a little better... and not care about the wrong ones as much.

I am having fun during this bear!  Why is that?  Is it because I am a masochist?  No.  Because I want to pretend I don't hate not selling at the top and buying at the bottom over and over?  Nope.  It is because this is one of the most interesting seasons in Bitcoin I have seen so far, and I have seen just about all of them.

I mean good grief.  Roger Ver may have gotten liquidated during this time.  I think when the smoke clears this will have been one of the most crazy periods in Bitcoin's history.  And I find that fun. 

Anyway...  I hope you will reconsider my invitation to the party.  But if you don't?  That's OK too. 

Breathe in.

Whoaza..

It seems that your explanation has caused some kind of short-circuiting of systems (de dee bot), and my handlers are working on updates that might well allow the potential of some kind of a further respond at a later date - though we have already established algorithmic systems of never going back to earlier posts, but we also have some values of "never say never" programmed therein as well...   

In other words I am likely going to have to leave uie-pooie hanging in regards to unspecified "party" possibilities. 

I think that part of the problem with my various proclamations regarding being socially unawkward and party-friendly contributed to the circuitry meltdown and/or other software issues... too many internal contradictions (from yours truly - I hate to admit), it seems... #justsaying.
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